Market insights
Softer-than-expected PCE inflation and a weak jobs report have dampened expectations of a US interest rate rise in October. The news was welcomed by markets, and Bitcoin briefly topped US$87K. Closer to home, expectations of another interest rate hike before Christmas have also fallen.
Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.7% to trade around US$85,760, while Ethereum gained 0.8% to trade around US$2,710. ETH has just seen the best Q3 in its history, rising 70.8% from the lows.
XRP was up 0.8%, Solana gained 1.6%, Hype surged by 7.6%, and Dogecoin was up 1.6%.
“Uptober” is typically one of Bitcoin’s best months, with an average return of 20%. This cycle has been playing out differently for most, however, and Bitcoin never fell below its realised price. That means this was the first bear market where the average Bitcoin holder remained in profit the entire time.
The macroeconomic picture is growing more complicated. The US and French 10-year bonds hit 24-year highs during the week, and President Donald Trump told reporters that inflation could pay down the country’s massive US$40 trillion debt “very rapidly.”
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to 80% of prewar levels, but shipping oil is becoming extremely expensive. The Iranians have stepped up attacks, and the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia and its allies is intensifying.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.
Key economic calendar events
In headlines
Singapore and Australia are the largest CSAO crypto economies
Singapore’s crypto-related financial activity rose 55.4% to US$284 billion in the year to June 2026, with much of the growth attributed to a doubling of institutional platform activity. Singapore is by far the largest crypto economy in Central and Southeast Asia and Oceania (CSAO), well ahead of Australia, in second place at US$173.1 billion, and India, in third at US$135 billion. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Financial Services Commission has published new rules to bring conventional securities onto blockchain rails, which are due to take effect on February 4 next year.
Ethereum Glamsterdam test tonight
Ethereum’s next hard fork is almost here, with the Glamsterdam fork being trialled out just after midnight AEDT on the Sepolia testnet. The headline changes include the enshrined proposer-builder separation (ePBS), which helps decentralise the block-building process, and block-level access lists (BALs), which enable parallel processing and support greater L1 throughput.
Nearly lost US$3.8 million
The crypto + AI project NEAR has seen a 140% increase over the past 30 days, and its Intents cross-chain platform is now processing around US$4.5 billion a month. The project’s AI watchdog program SHIELD hit the headlines recently after it automatically rejected the hacked Bitget funds. This week, SHIELD detected a US$3.8 million exploit in progress and halted the platform. Incredibly, the NEAR team was then able to identify the hacker and issued a public ultimatum to return the funds within 48 hours, which the hacker duly did. “Please use bug bounties instead,” said NEAR Intents general manager Alex Shevchenko.
OKX and ICE team up on stock tokens
OKX has partnered with ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to launch 24/7 trading in 63 tokenised stocks, including SpaceX and Apple. The deal uses the SEC’s new Innovation Exemption. Listed companies have 30 days to opt out. Tokenised shares carry the same rights and dividends as the underlying stock.
ETF news
The Bitcoin ETFs attracted US$6.34 billion in inflows in the third quarter, as Bitcoin climbed 40%. Last week saw US$83 million of net inflows, while the Ether ETFs lost US$114 million. The SEC has approved new 3X leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETFs to trade on Cboe BZX. Bitwise’s new NEAR ETF got off to a promising start by taking US$35.5 million on its first day, putting it ahead of the first-day hauls of Avalanche, Chainlink and Hyperliquid, but behind Solana. Its net inflows at the end of the first week were US$58.1 million.
Crypto jobs posting triple
Data from CryptoJobsList shows the number of advertised crypto jobs tripled between July and September, from 382 mid-year to 1,241 last month. The number of companies recruiting also increased from 77 in August to 125 in September. However, fewer people are applying. There were just under 20,000 applications in September, compared with 25,700 applications in July.
Flurry of US crypto regulation announcements
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has unveiled proposed new rules designed specifically for crypto that would allow registered exchanges to offer leverage trading. The framework would create a new “crypto asset market” registration category. The SEC has also proposed new rules governing the custody of crypto assets, allowing advisers and funds to self-custody newly issued tokens when no approved custodian exists. State trust companies could act as custodians under the rules. Meanwhile, the Treasury has withdrawn proposed crypto surveillance rules targeting unhosted wallets and crypto mixers that the industry has campaigned against for years. The durability of regulator rulemaking is being tested in court, with a community bank group suing the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for exceeding its authority by allowing crypto firms to obtain a national trust bank.
Legislation news
The flurry of new rules comes in the wake of the CLARITY Act vote failing in the Senate, although some still hold out hope that the crypto bill could pass after the November 3 midterm elections. The crypto funder super PAC Fairshake has revealed it will financially support the re-election campaigns of 13 Democrats and 19 Republicans. Senate Republicans have also just introduced a new crypto taxation bill that would provide tax relief for stablecoin payments and network fees, extend wash sale rules to crypto, and include tax and income sourcing rules for staking and mining.
