Market update

If Donald Trump thought firing the Statistics Commissioner last month would result in improved numbers, he would have been disappointed, as only 22,000 US jobs were added in August, which was well below the 75,000 expected. Unemployment ticked up and wage growth slowed; however, that increased expectations of US interest rate cuts and the Nasdaq hit a fresh all-time high overnight. New US inflation figures come out mid-week. Ethereum flipped Bitcoin for spot market trading volume for the first time in seven years, but still finished the week flat at A$6,510 (US$4,297), while Bitcoin gained 3.9% to trade around A$169,420 (US$111,645). Analyst Ted Pillows believes ETH may be following Bitcoin’s 2020 price action when it pulled back 25% – 30% after it hit a new all-time high. If ETH mirrors that move, Pillows says it could bottom around US$3,500 to US$3,700 (A$5,305 to A$5,607) before a “parabolic rally in Q4”. Solana surged 7.7% as Forward Industry announced a US$1.6 billion (A$2.4B) SOL treasury. Ripple gained 6.9% and Dogecoin shot up 13.9%. Bitcoin mining difficultly also climbed to a new all-time high of 134.7 trillion on Friday. Stock and crypto trading platform Robinhood surged 15% after being added to the S&P 500, but Strategy was snubbed, despite qualifying for inclusion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 51, or Neutral.

After peaking at a new all-time high in August, Bitcoin has fallen 13% to touch its lowest level since June. It fell 0.2% this week and is currently trading around US$108,913. Over the past year, Bitcoin has suffered two one-third drawdowns, so further downsides are possible. Tech stocks are also suffering, with the Nasdaq pulling back 1.2%. Ethereum fell by 3.4% this week to trade around US$4,304, even as the Ethereum ETFs hauled in more than a billion dollars. ETH has now fully retraced the god candle it saw following Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Zooming out, the picture is rosier, however, with analyst Ted Pillows pointing out that while Bitcoin is flat in the third quarter, Ethereum is up 77%. The week’s best performer was Solana, which briefly reclaimed the US$200 mark and finished the week up 3.22% amid a sea of red, perhaps in anticipation of ETF approvals. Looking ahead, September is typically a down month, but Uptober and November usually see some of the best returns of the year. The US M2 money supply has also just hit a new all-time high, with Bitcoin typically following it upwards after a lag. Strategy is also set to join the S&P 500 later this week. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 49, or Fear. 

Crypto markets surged after US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which renewed optimism for interest rate cuts ahead. The US stock market hit its highest valuation in history, surpassing the Dot-Com bubble and the lead-up to the Great Depression. While Solana, Dogecoin, and BNB jumped higher after the speech, all eyes were on Ethereum, which hit a new all-time high of A$7,641/ US$4,953 for the first time since 2021.

After an impressive run up to a new all-time high for Bitcoin of US$124,457/A$191,680, markets pulled back, causing much wailing on the weekend as some assumed it was all over. The US producer price index had come in hot at 3.3%, dampening expectations for an interest rate cut in September.  However, crypto’s fundamentals are looking healthy, with Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average now above the US$100K/A$154K mark for the first time, and BTC accounting for 1.7% of the global money supply. Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.5% to trade around US$116,956/A$180,439. Ethereum also got within 2% of a new all-time high (US$4878/A$7532) before buyers lost their nerve. It has held above the US$4100/A$6315 resistance it was under for four years, and the ETH supply on exchanges is down to just 12%.  Ethereum finishes the week up 3.8% to trade around US$4377/A$6754. Leveraged ETH shorts are also at an all-time high as many expect the price to fall. However, with billions flowing in from ETH treasury companies, the high leverage could lead to a short squeeze upwards if they’ve miscalculated. Other notable moves include Solana, up 6% for the week, and Cardano, up 20.8%. Searches for ‘altcoin’ have hit the highest level since 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 60, or Greed.

Bitcoin came within a whisker of breaking its all-time high in US$123,091 yesterday, with some Bitcoiners claiming it has already surpassed the ATH in AUD due to fluctuations in the exchange rate. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.8% to trade at US$118,729. But all eyes are on Ethereum’s revenge arc back to 2021 prices after two years of bearishness and FUD. ETH is currently up 13.4% for the week to trade around US$4,216. Ethereum’s big move on the weekend led to much discussion of a rotation into altcoins, but with 20,000 new coins being created per day, not everything is set to benefit. Analyst Miles Deutscher is calling for a “mini alt season”; however, the CMC Altcoin Season index has been ranging between 29 and 43, so it’s not happening just yet. In potentially worrying macro news, more than 90% of fund managers surveyed by the Bank of America think US stocks are overvalued. There was a massive outflow from US crypto ETFs on Monday last week, but the Ether ETFs recovered to take US$327.6 million for the week, while the Bitcoin ETFs took US$253.2M. BlackRock dashed hopes for an imminent new altcoin ETF by saying, “At this time, BlackRock does not have any plans to file an XRP or SOL ETF.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.

The “main character” driving crypto markets this cycle appears to be the President of the United States. Friday saw more than US$900 million (A$1.39B) in crypto liquidations as investors realised Donald Trump really is putting tariffs on the entire world. Trump also fired the political appointee who’d released bad jobs numbers and said he’d sent nuclear subs to intimidate Russia. These macro factors hit markets hard and outweighed the incredibly bullish news that the SEC is launching Project Crypto.

Despite bizarre fake reports that China has banned crypto again, markets staged a recovery over the past day or so, perhaps looking ahead to the possibility of three interest rate cuts that Goldman Sachs suggests will now happen this year. Ethereum led the comeback with a 6.5% gain overnight, but remains down 1.4% for the week. Bitcoin is down 2.2% for the week, trading around A$178,553 (US$115,166).

Ethereum was also the big winner in July, surging 56% to clock its highest monthly gain in three years. It’s currently trading at A$5,767 (US$3,720). The CoinDesk 20 Index rose 21% in July. Base has overtaken Solana (down 7.7%) on the number of tokens launched, thanks to minting Zora posts as ERC-20 tokens. Popular newspaper USA Today this week told its 5.1 million X followers, “XRP is the smartest cryptocurrency to buy with US$500 (A$772) now.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 64, or Greed.

Crypto markets aren’t the only financial sector riding high — with the S&P 500 breaking records and meme stocks re-emerging, the Financial Times reports that analysts are worried about a possible bubble. Given the tidal wave of positive developments for crypto in recent months, a crash might be the only near-term threat to the ongoing crypto bull run. That said, macro is also looking good this week, with President Donald Trump’s one-sided trade deal with the EU erasing fears about his August 1 tariff deadline. Bitcoin approached US$120,000 (A$184K) and ETH neared US$4K (A$6,132) after the news broke, before easing back overnight to finish flat for the week. About US$1.2 billion (A$1.84B) in ETH shorts will reportedly be wiped out if the price tops US$4K. Billions of dollars in new money flowing into crypto treasury companies also helped ensure the Bitcoin price barely blinked when Galaxy sold US$9 billion (A$13.8B) in Bitcoin. However, Solana (-7.3%), XRP (-12.6%), Dogecoin (-17%) and Cardano (-11.4%) saw notable falls over the week. Ethereum dominance is now at 11.8% and “other altcoins” are at 27.6%. The White House Digital Assets Report will be released on Wednesday, US time, according to Bloomberg. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 75, or Greed.

Bitcoin remains at eye-watering prices, but the week belonged to Ethereum, which gained 25% over the past seven days and 63% for the month. It’s flipped Bitcoin volume on some exchanges, and ETH dominance has increased to 11.6% for the first time since July 2020. That said, ETH remains 23.3% off its all-time high, an RSI of 90 indicates it’s overbought, and there’s a big queue of stakers looking to exit their positions. XRP has also taken off like a rocket, up 21% for the week and 73% for the month. It’s also yet to break its all-time high of $3.84 according to CoinMarketCap (CMC). With SOL, DOGE and ADA each gaining more than 20% each this week, and NFTs roaring back to life, altseason may well have arrived. While Bitcoin took a breather, it appears to be tracking the ever-rising M2 money supply with a 10-week lag, and the realised cap (the amount of cash people have invested) has topped US$1 trillion (A$1.53T). FundStrat’s Tom Lee says it’s going to US$1M (A$1.53T). The overall crypto market cap is at US$3.92T (A$6T) on CMC, but broke through US$4T (A$6.12T) according to CoinGecko. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71, or Greed.

It’s been a huge week for crypto markets, and we’re now in the most exciting phase of the Bitcoin bull run – price discovery. Bitcoin smashed through the previous all-time high of US$111,970 (A$171,970) mid-week and overnight topped US$122,404 (A$186,873). BTC is now the world’s fifth-largest asset, worth more than Amazon. There are plenty of possible explanations for the move, with the US looking set to adopt its first crypto legislation this week, the money supply is growing, the USD is falling, and Bitcoin is increasingly being seen as a safe haven from the spiralling US deficit.

Markets may have been trending sideways, but the stars appear to be aligning for crypto, with Bitcoin recording its highest-ever weekly close, even as the global monetary supply hits new heights and the US dollar falls. USD tumbled 10.7% against its global peers in June, recording the worst half since 1973 in the aftermath of President Nixon taking the dollar off the gold standard. Strong jobs data suggest the US economy is resilient, with the odds of a recession falling to 22% according to Polymarket. The spot Bitcoin ETFs are nearing US$50 billion (A$77B) in cumulative net inflows, but Bitcoin’s “at the market” implied volatility has dipped to its lowest level since October 2023.

The Ethereum ETFs saw US$219.1M (A$337.1M) inflows last week and there’s a new wave of bullishness around Ethereum, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee calling for a US$10,000 (A$15.4K) price target – having previously called Bitcoin in 2017, Tesla in 2019 and Nvidia in 2021. CNBC also put out a glowing report from EthCC headlined “Ethereum is powering Wall Street’s future.” Ethereum’s net inflows from other chains hit US$1.3B (A$2B) last week. Analyst Michael van de Poppe put out a chart showing the altcoin market cap (which excludes BTC and ETH) has been consolidating for four years and now looks set for a breakout. “That means we’re on the verge of the bull market,” he predicted. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 73, or Greed.

Bitcoin has been in a bull market for 952 days now, according to BitcoinNews.com, seeing a peak of 6.2x gains so far this cycle. However, the major price action happened in short bursts over just 36 days, with Bitcoin trending sideways the rest of the time. With Bitcoin just a few thousand dollars short of a new all-time high, stocks already breaking records, and with Strategy potentially entering the S&P 500 in the coming months, the best may be yet to come. The US dollar index (DXY) is at three-year lows, which has historically preceded big Bitcoin price moves. 

TradFi is getting on board in a big way, with Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines which manages US$300 billion (A$455B) in assets, this week calling for clients to allocate up to 40% of their portfolios to crypto. “Owning crypto is no longer a speculative position; failing to do so is,” Edelman said. The Bitcoin ETFs hauled in US$2.214 billion (A$3.36B) last week, and the Ether ETFs took US$283.5M inflows (A$429.5M). Activity has also returned to the Ethereum L1, which saw the daily transactions average get up to 1.45M this week for the first time since 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 64, or Greed.

After spending 44 glorious days above US$100,000 (A$156.4K), Bitcoin fell below this level due to the conflict in the Middle East. Bitcoin had appeared resilient in the initial hours after the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, the threatened closure of the Hormuz Strait – which carries 20% of the world’s oil supplies – combined with over US$1 billion in crypto liquidations, ultimately dragged it below the psychological US$100K level. Analysts warn a closure could drive oil prices to US$100 (up 33.5%) per barrel if disruptions continue.

Ethereum broke below the crucial support line around US$2,362 (A$3,670), XRP, SOL and HYPE all fell below their respective support levels, while smaller altcoins were hit even harder. Bitcoin dominance is now at its highest point since January 2021 at 65.8%. However, Iran’s “very weak” attack on the US base in Qatar overnight, with a courtesy call to the Americans to let them know the missiles were coming, suggested to many observers that Iran may not be seeking a wider conventional conflict right now. Crypto markets got a boost from the prospect, as well as the Trump-announced ceasefire, with Bitcoin up 5.7% to US$105,470 (A$162,752) and Ethereum gaining 12% in the 24 hours to Tuesday morning (but it remains 5.1% down on a week ago).

Even before the weekend’s flare-up, crypto markets were looking patchy, with spot volumes near yearly lows, funding rates negative and the number of whale addresses at the lowest level since early April. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 65, or Greed.