Market update

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After a sharp drop on the weekend due to Tether FUD and Israel’s tit-for-tat attack on Iran, Bitcoin has powered its way back to a three-month high above A$106.4K (the US$70K mark) thanks to optimism around the US election and Iran’s disinterest in escalation. The charts saw a Golden Cross, where the 50-day moving average exceeds the 200-day moving average, which often confirms a shift in momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 5% for the week, trading at around A$106,049 (US$70,101). Elsewhere, bearish retail sentiment surrounds ETH, with Solana hitting fresh highs against it and ETH/BTC plumbing new lows. However, long-term holders and whales continue to have high conviction in the roadmap, and A$6.1B ETH (US$4B) has been withdrawn from exchanges to HODL in just a few weeks. Ethereum finishes the week down 2% to trade around A$3,878 (US$2,550). Solana gained 7%, with great metrics around usage and volume; XRP lost 3%, Cardano fell 4%, and Shiba Inu was down 1.5%. Dogecoin got a 14% bump this week after being mentioned in Trump’s campaign event, with supporter Elon Musk set to head up the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) in the Trump administration. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or Greed.

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With US equities trading near all-time highs and the possibility of a more pro-crypto administration growing, Bitcoin has been flirting with the A$105K (US$70K) mark. The notional open interest of USD-denominated Bitcoin futures on major exchanges topped 592,000 BTC on the weekend for the first time since late 2022, suggesting new money entering the market. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that inflation is down in Japan, lowering the risk of an interest rate hike and weakening the Yen, and China has cut its benchmark lending rates. “Risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative,” QCP traders said. The big wildcard remains Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack. Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$101,244 (US$67,033), while Ethereum gained 3% to trade just above A$4,002 (US$2,649). Solana gained another 7%, while XRP and Cardano gained 1%. Shiba Inu was flat, while Dogecoin shot up 21% off the back of another Elon Musk endorsement. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.

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Uptober has finally been renewed for its 2024 season, with a 5% jump in the Bitcoin price over the past day. Although core US inflation came in hot at 3.3% rather than the expected 3.2%, a bunch of other positive news emerged, including Mt Gox pushing out its repayments timetable by a year, China moving toward more stimulus measures, pro-crypto Republican Donald Trump looking increasingly likely to win the election, and his opponent Democrat Kamala Harris warming toward crypto. Last week, the Bitcoin ETFs raked in A$518.4 million (US$348.5M) in net inflows. Prices also surged in the final weeks of the previous two US elections, and historically, October has been a strong month for crypto markets (it’s never made a new monthly low since October 12). Bitcoin is up 5% from the same time last week to trade around A$97,699 (US$65,990), and 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero predicted that if BTC can cross the A$104K/US$70K mark, “all hell’s gonna break loose.” Ethereum gained 8% to trade at A$3,898 (US$2,606). It was all green across the board as Solana gained 9%, XRP was up by 4%, and Cardano made 2%. Memes rebounded, too, with Dogecoin up 7% and Shiba Inu gaining 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 65 or Greed.

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Iran’s missile attack on Israel last week missed most of its targets, but it did hit Uptober. While there’s been a recovery, expect volatility in the event of a counterattack by Israel. Geopolitical tensions aside, macro conditions aren’t looking too bad, with the US economy gaining 254K jobs, well ahead of expectations of 140K. Interest rates are on their way down, China has begun to inject stimulus into its flagging economy, and the FTX creditor repayment plan has been approved. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% to trade around A$92,288 (US$62,670), while Ethereum is down 5% to A$3,594 (US$2,415). Altcoins had a mixed week, with Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano all falling by around 4%. The biggest loser, however, was XRP, falling a staggering 12%. This comes as the SEC appeals its lost securities case against XRP’s parent company, Ripple. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50 or neutral.

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Bitcoin rose 6.9% last month, making it the best September in more than a decade (it usually averages a 3.44% loss.) While ‘Uptober’ usually averages a 22.9% return and November averages 46.8%, that’s far from guaranteed, and Bitcoin took a 4% dive on the final day of the month over concerns about a possible US slowdown, the pace of rate cuts, and the AI bubble popping. CoinDesk reports that options traders are positioning for more weakness until the US presidential election is over. However, China is embarking on a round of stimulus measures, which could drive crypto higher over the next year. Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at around A$91,560 (US$62,993), while Ethereum lost 2% to trade at around A$3,765 (US$2,617). Solana continues to perform with a 5% rise, and XRP gained 4%. Even Donald Trump posting DOGE memes couldn’t get Dogecoin above a 5% rise, but a new Japanese PM called Shigeru Ishiba propelled Shiba Inu to a 27% weekly gain. Cardano rose 1%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.

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Whether thanks to Vitalik Buterin singing at Token2049, Donald Trump buying a burger with BTC — or, most likely, a 50 basis points interest rate cut in the US — crypto markets have taken a turn for the better. Bitcoin finishes the week up 7% to trade around A$92,295 (US$63,032), and Ethereum has fought its way from beneath a mountain of bearish commentary to record a 16% gain this week to trade around A$3,900 (US$2,663), with ETH/BTC increasing to 0.0424. Its performance was even better than Solana’s 9% gain after bullish announcements at its Breakpoint conference. XRP dropped 1%, Dogecoin gained 8.7%, and Cardano was up 8%, with founder Charles Hoskinson set to meet with Argentina president Javier Milei next month. Microstrategy has bought another 7,420 BTC, and this month is on track (so far) to be Bitcoin’s best-performing September ever. Rekt Capital points out that historically, Bitcoin has broken out from its reaccumulation range 154-161 days after the Halving. “It is 157 days after the Halving now,” he writes. “History suggests it is ‘Breakout Time’ for Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54, or Neutral.