Market update

We’re pleased to share that Independent Reserve has been named a finalist for six awards at this year’s Digis, the industry awards run by the Digital Economy Council of Australia (DECA). Our nominations are: Company of the Year, Digital Currency Exchange of the Year, Product & Service Innovation, Data, AI & Intelligence, Engagement & Education, and Customer Experience Excellence. A huge thank you to our clients and community. Your support is what drives us to keep raising the bar.

Confidence in crypto was shaken this week, first by concerns that AI could one day break public key encryption, and then by a supply chain attack targeting Ledger products sold in Asia and Europe. The macro picture is darkening too, with the conflict in the Middle East heating up, Brent crude oil crossing US$107 a barrel, and the debt problem worsening in France.

Softer-than-expected PCE inflation and a weak jobs report have dampened expectations of a US interest rate rise in October. The news was welcomed by markets, and Bitcoin briefly topped US$87K. Closer to home, expectations of another interest rate hike before Christmas have also fallen.

Bitcoin closed the week at US$84,450, above the May high of US$82,400 and marking a technical breakout. The Bitcoin price is now up more than 40% for the quarter, representing its best Q3 since 2017.

Despite the Clarity Act vote failing and the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan both hiking interest rates, Bitcoin suddenly gained US$10,000 in under a week. Following the recent golden cross, analysts had been hoping for a weekly close above the 50-week moving average. It blew past that and kept going all the way up to US$87K. Almost one billion dollars’ worth of shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, and a higher high is another sign heralding a new bull market. Analyst James Check has called the end of the bear market, while bear Ben Cowen posted, “I was wrong.”

It’s a momentous week for crypto regulation in the United States, with the CLARITY Act facing its most important vote in the Senate early Wednesday morning.

Despite its US$40 trillion debt and ongoing bond troubles, the underlying US economy appears to be motoring along fine. The Services PMI, which tracks the goods and services sector, came in at 55.4, above expectations of 54.3. The economy also added 162,000 new jobs in a month, more than triple expectations. There could be volatility ahead, however, with new inflation data out this week, and the CLARITY vote and US Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week. The strong jobs figures increased expectations of a rate rise, and markets dipped in response.

Bitcoin has held on to the gains from the recent monster rally, and August’s 26% return was the fourth-best August historically and the largest monthly gain since November 2024. Ethereum increased 34% over the past month, for the best result since July 2025. The ETH/BTC ratio gained 6% for the month, and analyst Ted Pillows noted that ETH’s price had made “higher highs” so far, unlike Bitcoin’s.

Crypto markets roared back to life this week as Bitcoin surged by US$15,000 in under two days. It finished the week up 22.6% for BTC’s best weekly gain in three years and the highest-ever US dollar value increase. It was a dramatic demonstration of Bitcoin’s “rule of ten days”, which refers to the fact that historically, if you held Bitcoin only on its ten best days each year, you’d see an average 162% gain, while holding it during the other 355 days would see an average loss of 14%. Overnight, Bitcoin touched the US$80K mark for the first time in 113 days, and debate has begun in earnest about whether it marks the start of a new cycle. Bitcoin is currently trading at US$78,836.

Since June, the Bitcoin price has been trading in a range between the long-term realised price floor (US$52,699) and the short-term holder realised price (US$67,200). This week, Bitcoin traded within a narrow US$2,000 band around the Median Realised Price of US$63,200. Spot trading volumes are back at 2019 levels, and the on-chain transfer velocity is at a seven-year low.

Bitcoin holds near US$64k as ETFs post their best week since April and hedge funds flip net long on BTC futures. Plus, the CLARITY Act gets a September vote date, Thailand scraps crypto capital gains tax, and Bitcoin’s BIP-110 fork fails.

Bitcoin neared US$67,000 earlier in the week, but has finished down 2.6% on seven days to trade around US$63,609. Ethereum is down 1.2% for the week to trade around US$1,882, while spot Ether ETFs raised US$104 million last week, three times the US$33.9 million raised by Bitcoin ETFs. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to improve, up 1.7% this week and 13% this month.