Market update

Uptober has finally been renewed for its 2024 season, with a 5% jump in the Bitcoin price over the past day. Although core US inflation came in hot at 3.3% rather than the expected 3.2%, a bunch of other positive news emerged, including Mt Gox pushing out its repayments timetable by a year, China moving toward more stimulus measures, pro-crypto Republican Donald Trump looking increasingly likely to win the election, and his opponent Democrat Kamala Harris warming toward crypto. Last week, the Bitcoin ETFs raked in A$518.4 million (US$348.5M) in net inflows. Prices also surged in the final weeks of the previous two US elections, and historically, October has been a strong month for crypto markets (it’s never made a new monthly low since October 12). Bitcoin is up 5% from the same time last week to trade around A$97,699 (US$65,990), and 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero predicted that if BTC can cross the A$104K/US$70K mark, “all hell’s gonna break loose.” Ethereum gained 8% to trade at A$3,898 (US$2,606). It was all green across the board as Solana gained 9%, XRP was up by 4%, and Cardano made 2%. Memes rebounded, too, with Dogecoin up 7% and Shiba Inu gaining 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 65 or Greed.

Iran’s missile attack on Israel last week missed most of its targets, but it did hit Uptober. While there’s been a recovery, expect volatility in the event of a counterattack by Israel. Geopolitical tensions aside, macro conditions aren’t looking too bad, with the US economy gaining 254K jobs, well ahead of expectations of 140K. Interest rates are on their way down, China has begun to inject stimulus into its flagging economy, and the FTX creditor repayment plan has been approved. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% to trade around A$92,288 (US$62,670), while Ethereum is down 5% to A$3,594 (US$2,415). Altcoins had a mixed week, with Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano all falling by around 4%. The biggest loser, however, was XRP, falling a staggering 12%. This comes as the SEC appeals its lost securities case against XRP’s parent company, Ripple. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50 or neutral.

Bitcoin rose 6.9% last month, making it the best September in more than a decade (it usually averages a 3.44% loss.) While ‘Uptober’ usually averages a 22.9% return and November averages 46.8%, that’s far from guaranteed, and Bitcoin took a 4% dive on the final day of the month over concerns about a possible US slowdown, the pace of rate cuts, and the AI bubble popping. CoinDesk reports that options traders are positioning for more weakness until the US presidential election is over. However, China is embarking on a round of stimulus measures, which could drive crypto higher over the next year. Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at around A$91,560 (US$62,993), while Ethereum lost 2% to trade at around A$3,765 (US$2,617). Solana continues to perform with a 5% rise, and XRP gained 4%. Even Donald Trump posting DOGE memes couldn’t get Dogecoin above a 5% rise, but a new Japanese PM called Shigeru Ishiba propelled Shiba Inu to a 27% weekly gain. Cardano rose 1%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.

Whether thanks to Vitalik Buterin singing at Token2049, Donald Trump buying a burger with BTC — or, most likely, a 50 basis points interest rate cut in the US — crypto markets have taken a turn for the better. Bitcoin finishes the week up 7% to trade around A$92,295 (US$63,032), and Ethereum has fought its way from beneath a mountain of bearish commentary to record a 16% gain this week to trade around A$3,900 (US$2,663), with ETH/BTC increasing to 0.0424. Its performance was even better than Solana’s 9% gain after bullish announcements at its Breakpoint conference. XRP dropped 1%, Dogecoin gained 8.7%, and Cardano was up 8%, with founder Charles Hoskinson set to meet with Argentina president Javier Milei next month. Microstrategy has bought another 7,420 BTC, and this month is on track (so far) to be Bitcoin’s best-performing September ever. Rekt Capital points out that historically, Bitcoin has broken out from its reaccumulation range 154-161 days after the Halving. “It is 157 days after the Halving now,” he writes. “History suggests it is ‘Breakout Time’ for Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54, or Neutral.

Bitcoin began to show signs of life a few days ago after futures markets suddenly began to reflect a 47% chance the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points. While cuts are usually a good thing for risk assets, there are concerns the cuts might indicate the Fed foresees trouble ahead. Senator Elizabeth Warren has even called on the Fed to make a 75 BPS cut to avoid a recession. Bitcoin reversed the week’s gains in the past day or so as macroeconomic worries came to the fore, including concerns about China’s slowdown. Bitcoin finished the week up 0% to trade around A$85,824 (US$58,122), while Ethereum finished 5% down on the same time last week to trade at A$3,370 (US$2,284) as bearishness about the L2 roadmap continues. Solana fell 5% (daily fees are now around A$216K/US$146K from a high of A$7.5M/US$5.1M in March), XRP gained 6%, Dogecoin fell 4.1% and Cardano (-4%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 33, or Fear.

Crypto markets took a dive following a mixed jobs report in the US which showed employers had added 142,000 new jobs in August — 18,000 less than forecast. Despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, it added to concerns the US still might go into recession. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen then popped up to argue the economy was “deep into a recovery.” US stocks bounced back from the dip, and Bitcoin gained 5% overnight. However, BTC still finishes the week down 2% on seven days ago to trade around A$85,756 (US$57,304). Ethereum is down 6% to trade around A$3,531 (US$2,336). Solana was flat despite falling transactions and TVL, XRP lost 4% but Cardano rose 4%. Dogecoin gained 4.6%, possibly because Elon Musk has been tapped by Trump to head up a government waste task force and has been posting memes about the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE). After dipping into Extreme Fear, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 33, or Fear. If you take a long-term view the picture remains rosy according to MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor who tips Bitcoin is headed to A$19.5M (US$13M).