Market update
Bitcoin has just seen its highest ever USD weekly close at A$164,869/US$106,326 – less than 3% off a new all-time high – although markets are a long way from irrational exuberance. Moody’s caused some angst by downgrading US government bonds from AAA status, but only to the same level as the other two major ratings agencies. 21Shares has forecast Bitcoin will hit A$210,350/US$138,500 this year, driven mostly by institutional inflows rather than retail mania. Here in Australia, the RBA is expected to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the Japanese economy is contracting. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.
A 90-day ceasefire in the trade war between China and the US saw the tech-focused Nasdaq surge 4.4 per cent and the S&P 500 up 3.3 per cent overnight. The crypto market cap is also up A$660 billion (US$420B) in the past week. While the news helps alleviate one of the big macro factors weighing on markets, Bitcoin has been acting like a counter trade, so it didn’t get as big a boost as some may have been expecting. Gold futures also fell 3%.
Positive signs that there could be a resolution in the Ukraine/Russia war and India/Pakistan conflict have also buoyed markets. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade appears to have finally fixed its failing ‘Number Go Up’ technology, with ETH shooting up 44% in three days. Searches for the misspelled “etherium” have also surged, suggesting retail may be getting interested. Ethereum is now worth more than Coca-Cola or Alibaba, and is ranked the 39th largest asset by market cap.
In other market news, there’s growing speculation that Bitcoin dominance may have topped at 65% last week (it’s currently at 63%). Bitcoin finishes the week up 10% to trade around A$161,459 (US$102,929) while Ethereum is 39% higher than seven days ago and is trading around A$3,909 (US$2,491). XRP gained 20%, Solana gained 20%, Dogecoin (37%), and Cardano (25%) are also up. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.
Solid jobs data this week saw US stock markets recover the ground they’d lost since April 2’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs caused a major sell-off. And, after two down months in a row, Bitcoin finished up 14.2% in April. However, Bitcoin then took a dive on Monday, in a move some analysts linked to President Trump’s latest announcement of tariffs on non-US movies, though a direct relationship seems unclear. Bitcoin finishes the week flat at A$147,366 (US$95,025) while Ethereum gained 1%, ahead of this week’s Pectra upgrade, to trade around A$2,826 (US$1,826). CoinDesk reports the tightest Bollinger Band squeeze on the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart since 2020 (indicating low volatility and consolidation), suggesting ETH will experience a big move soon. Ripple, which reportedly failed in its bid to acquire USDC issuer Circle, saw XRP lose 7%. Solana fell 1%, Dogecoin is down 4%, and Cardano dipped 5%. The Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of A$2.8B (US$1.8B) last week while the Ethereum ETFs saw inflows on all but one day and took A$165M (US$107M) for the second positive week in a row. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 59, or Greed.
Crypto and traditional markets came storming back this week after Donald Trump temporarily walked back some of his tariff proposals. But with new economic data rolling in and new hostilities between India and Pakistan, it’s not clear which direction markets will head. Interestingly, Vanguard says 97% of its retirement product clients haven’t made a trade this year, suggesting many hope the current volatility is merely temporary. Bitcoin has surpassed silver to become the seventh-largest asset globally by market cap, with its dominance against other cryptocurrencies surpassing 63%, the highest level since early 2021.
Bitcoin is up 8% this week to trade around A$148,106 (US$95,266), and Ethereum has seen some long-awaited glimmers of optimism about its future translate into a 15% gain to trade around $2,805 (US$1,801). A raft of XRP-related ETFs helped XRP to an 11% gain, Solana was up 9%, Dogecoin (13%) and Cardano (14%). The week’s most notable move was Facebook’s crypto project spinoff Sui’s 62.3% gain amid growing memecoin and stablecoin activity, and interest in its handheld gaming device SuiPlay0X1. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54 or Neutral.
Wall Street’s major indexes fell sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%, the Nasdaq off 2.6%, and the USD falling to three-year lows. But Bitcoin actually increased 2.7% in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday (alongside gold, which was up 2.9%), leading to speculation BTC is finally becoming the safe haven long promised. QCP Capital said the increase could just be “holiday-driven noise” but might also “mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin.” Strategy also announced it has bought another 6,556 BTC. Crypto markets remain weighed down by uncertainty due to the unpredictable twists in Donald Trump’s trade war and recent attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, with volumes on major crypto exchanges at six-month lows.
Bitcoin finishes the week up 3% to trade around A$136,077 (US$87,162) while Ethereum fell 3% this week to trade around A$2,454 (US$1,574). Almost 60% of ETH holders are now underwater, which is worse than during the last bear market bottom for ETH. XRP lost 3%, Solana gained 5%, Dogecoin was flat, and Cardano lost 2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 39, or Fear.
While crypto markets remain approximately A$1.6 trillion (US$1T) down from December’s peak, things are certainly looking more positive than last week — Donald Trump’s erratic trade war remains the prime mover. Markets saw big gains after he suspended tariffs above 10% on everyone but China for 90 days and later exempted big tech products from China, too (though how long for remains up in the air). Trump was left with no choice after investors began dumping US bonds — one of the clearest warning signs of an approaching full-blown financial crisis. The Wall Street Journal says there are now worrying signs investors are starting to lose faith in American economic management. Many analysts anticipate a range-bound pattern for Bitcoin until the tariff picture becomes clearer. “BTC continues to consolidate within the US$80K-$90K (A$126K to $142K) range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to the tariff situation,’ said QCP Capital on Telegram. Bitcoin has held up incredibly well throughout the crisis and finishes the week up 6% to trade around A$133,784 (US$84,891), while Ethereum is up 3% to trade around A$2,565 (US$1,612). XRP gained 14%, Solana surged 20%, Dogecoin was up 8%, and Cardano gained 9%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 31, or Fear.