Market update

After a rocky start, conditions have begun to improve this week. Crypto markets appear mostly driven by macro news at present, and following a significant decline, the S&P 500 had its best day of the year on March 15. This uplift followed news that a deal had been struck to avert the periodic US Government shutdown. But geopolitical risks and recession fears are still weighing heavily and the effects of President Trump’s tariff war remain unpredictable. The EU has now imposed retaliatory tariffs on A$43.8 billion (US$28B) of US goods. CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric for Bitcoin has dropped to negative 142, while Ethereum is currently trading below its realised price for the first time in two years (the average price people actually bought it for, rather than market price). That said, Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% on seven days ago to trade at A$131,782 (US$84,169), while Ethereum gained 1% to trade at around A$3,033 (US$1,936). XRP got a boost from a new payments license in the UAE and is up 11% while Solana also got a boost from the end of voting on SIMD-228 and is up 8%. Dogecoin gained 11%, and Cardano was up 3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 32, or Fear.  

Few could have predicted that President Donald Trump would both honour the insanely bullish crypto promises he made during his campaign — including the creation of a Bitcoin reserve — and that crypto markets would tank anyway. But prices are down across the board since January’s inauguration, with Bitcoin down 18.5%, Ethereum falling 35.5% and Solana diving 49.1% (TRON somehow managed to increase 2.9%). As of yesterday, Trump’s own crypto project World Liberty Financial had lost more than A$175M/US$110M on paper. The current crash isn’t primarily about crypto, however, with the Nasdaq losing 4% and the S&P 500 closing 2.8 per cent lower on Monday as Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession. Adding to the gloom, there’s a Friday deadline for an agreement to avert a US government shutdown. Even Trump’s biggest supporters are uncertain where his tariffs and trade war strategy is headed, although podcaster Anthony Pompilano argues that he’s crashing markets deliberately to get interest rates down ahead of the US refinancing A$11.1T/US$7 trillion in debt in the next six months. Bitcoin is down 7% this week to trade around A$126,577 (US$79,625), while Ethereum has fallen another 11% to trade at A$3,000 (US$1,882). Everything else was down, including XRP (-12%), Solana (-15%), Cardano (-19%) and Dogecoin (-20%). While Bitcoin is down around 28% from its peak, Rektcapital points out that BTC has seen four corrections greater than 20% this bull run, with the deepest in mid-2024, retracing 32.8%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index finishes the week at 20, or Extreme Fear.

The election of the first pro-crypto administration in the US is turning out to be a bumpier ride than expected. Markets went on a rollercoaster ride in the past week, with Bitcoin losing around A$18.5K/US$13.45K over four days, before recovering slightly, then spiking higher thanks to President Donald Trump’s crypto strategic reserve posts yesterday …. and then retracing almost all of the reserve linked surge overnight. Traditional markets have also been hardened by Trump’s announcement he’s going ahead today with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and that he’s doubling tariffs on China to 20%. The Atlanta Fed’s volatile GDPNow model suggests US growth is now set to tumble -2.8% this quarter, down from +2.3% last week. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade around A$138,938 (US$86,279), while Ethereum is down 13% on last week to trade around A$3,462 (US$2,152). Cardano’s surprise inclusion in the proposed reserve left it up 29% on last week, and XRP was also up 8% along with Solana Solana (3%). Other coins were down, including Dogecoin (-2%) and Shiba Inu (-9.3%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index bottomed out at 10 during the week but recovered yesterday to 33 or Fear.

Thanks to the world’s biggest-ever crypto hack, sentiment turning on memecoins, tech stocks faltering, and Trump’s reported plan to move ahead with tariffs on Mexico and Canada, crypto markets are in retreat. Kaito reports crypto sentiment is back at pre-election levels, the Bitcoin ETFs have lost A$1.46B (US$928.9M) so far in February, and Polymarket foresees just a 10% chance of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happening in Trump’s first 100 days. On the other hand, the SEC this week dropped a raft of high-profile crypto investigations and lawsuits, and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal points out that Bitcoin saw five pullbacks greater than 28% in 2017, while alts fell more than 65%. “You guys all need to learn patience,” he counselled. Bitcoin finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$146,792 (US$92,819), while Ethereum is down 7% to trade at A$4,031 (US$2,562) even after Bybit was forced to buy hundreds of millions worth of ETH to make up for funds lost in the hack. XRP lost 14% while the fallout from the Libra token launch scandal (pumped by snipers and then fell 90% in hours) and billions of unlocks coming up in March have seen Solana fall 19% in a week to its lowest price since October 2024. Dogecoin lost 18%, Cardano lost 16%, and Shiba Inu fell 10.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 49 or Neutral.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei’s disastrous involvement with the LIBRA coin appears to have been the final straw for some memecoin holders, with a sentiment shift online this week against extractive memecoins and Solana in general. Various unverified estimates are floating around, suggesting memecoins may have extracted up to A$10.4B (US$6.6 billion) from retail buyers. LookOnChain data shows the stablecoin supply on Ethereum surged A$1.73B (US$1.1B) in the past week, while A$1.2B (US$772M) exited Solana. Solana finishes the week down 10.2%, with many meme and AI coins falling much further. Meanwhile, Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.1% to trade around A$150,827 (US$95,827), while Ethereum gained 2% to trade at A$4,323 (US$2,747). ETH has seen a number of false starts to a potential recovery in the past few months. Still, Joel Kruger, a market strategist for LMAX Group, is optimistic there’s “evidence of ETH potentially wanting to finally put in a major bottom against Bitcoin after down trending since 2021.” Closer to home, interest rates are tipped to fall today, with lower rates on savings accounts sometimes encouraging investors to find better returns from more risky assets. XRP gained 8%, Dogecoin (1%), Cardano (13%), while Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47, or Neutral.

Bitcoin is still worth almost US$100K but the bearishness on social media might have you convinced the cycle is over. President Donald Trump’s tariff war — currently aimed at China, worldwide steel, and potentially the EU — and disappointing earnings reports from Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft are weighing on prices. About 70% of crypto assets traded on Binance are now below their pre-election prices, and there are now 11 million coins on Coinmarketcap, which is hampering any chance of an altseason. “Retail sentiment is the worst it’s been in years, while professional investors are extraordinarily bullish. It’s like living in two completely separate worlds,” observed Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade at A$155,024 (US$97,296), with Ethereum down 8% to trade around A$4,228 (US$2,654). XRP lost 11%, Solana fell 9%, while Dogecoin (-13%), Cardano (-14%) and Shiba Inu (-3.8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 43, or Fear.

Having recovered from last week’s DeepSeek dip, Bitcoin surged to A$170K/US$106K before President Donald Trump launched his infamous trade war. The resulting crypto carnage saw Bitcoin plunge below A$152K/US$92K and altcoins lose 20%-30% each, pushing BTC dominance above 62%. Ethereum lost 29% over two days, including a sudden 11% plunge in an hour, seemingly due to a cascade of liquidations. But as news emerged this morning that Trump had done a deal with Mexico to delay tariffs there and a similar deal with Canada, markets bounced. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% at A$163,652 (US$102,569), while Ethereum is down 8% and trading at A$4,635 (US$2,873). XRP is down 9% on the same time last week, along with Solana (-6%), Dogecoin (-11%), Cardano (-12%), and Shiba Inu (-6%). Independent Reserves’ newly listed dogwifhat is on sale at a 25.2% discount to last week, while Render is down 17%. The overall crypto market cap has regained about half its losses from the plunge and is currently at A$5.38T (US$3.35T). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 44, or Fear. Independent Reserve has also listed two new tokens, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Pepe (PEPE), which are now available for trading.

Crypto and tech stocks plunged due to the release of a new Chinese AI model called DeepSeek, which is competitive with the best models from OpenAI but claims to have training costs 95% cheaper, suggesting that US AI stocks may be overvalued. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell sharply, with A$953B (US$600B) lost overnight from Nvidia’s market cap. Bitcoin miners involved in AI, such as Core Scientific, Terawulf and Iren lost a quarter of their value. Bitcoin had risen above A$170K (US$105K) earlier in the week as hopes grew for a Bitcoin reserve announcement, but has since stabilised at around A$163,078 (US$102,797) today, which is 1% down on the same time last week. Analysts from Standard Chartered and LondonCryptoClub see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Ethereum finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$5,087 (US$102,797). XRP lost 1%, Solana lost 3%, while Dogecoin (-5%), Cardano (6%) and Shiba Inu (-8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71, or Greed.

Bitcoin saw wild swings of 10% this week as excitement waxed and waned over President Trump’s impact. The price hit a new all-time high above A$175K (US$109k) yesterday as speculation grew over a potential Bitcoin stockpile or reserve (the odds surged then fell on Polymarket), but has eased back today. The Bitcoin price is up 8% on the same time last week to trade around A$165,354 (US$103,755). Bearish sentiment around Ethereum reached fever point in the wake of the TRUMP memecoin launching on Solana, but it still finished the week up +4% to trade around A$5,273 (US$3,334). Some crypto media reported that XRP hit a new all-time high this week, but both Coinmarketcap and Coingecko suggest it fell short. It finishes the week up 20%. Solana broke through to a new all time high, and is up 34% for the week. Whether it can sustain that in the face of 13 million SOL being unlocked in February and March remains to be seen. Dogecoin was up 5%, alongside Cardano (6%), Chainlink (37.4%) and Shiba Inu (1.3%). The Bitcoin ETFs hauled in almost a billion dollars on Friday, bringing the total for the week to A$2.96B/US$1.86B. The Ethereum ETFs saw A$338/US$212M. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76 or Extreme Greed.

Bitcoin’s pullback this week led Pantera to speculate the US election was another “Buy the rumour, sell the news” event while CoinShares wrote the “post-U.S. election honeymoon is over.” However, the overall crypto market cap is up almost $1 trillion since Trump’s election, even as the S&P 500 dropped back to its November 5 level. The big news this week was the release of the US Federal Reserve’s December minutes showing it would likely pause interest rate cuts over concerns about sticky inflation (with new inflation figures coming out mid-week). Markets were pricing in three cuts, but now it’s just one. Strong jobs data raised further inflationary concerns, and news broke about the US Government getting the green light to sell 69K Bitcoin. Bitcoin finishes the week down 7% to trade around A$152,617 (US$94,559). Ethereum lost 14% to trade around A$5,063 (US$3,136), XRP gained 5% as JPMorgan projected up to $8B inflows into a potential ETF, Solana lost 15%, while Dogecoin (-13%), Cardano (-12%) and Shiba Inu (-15%) were also down. January dumps in post-halving years are nothing new, and Bitcoin went on massive bull runs after dumping in January 2017 and January 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 61, or Greed.

Independent Reserve has also listed two new tokens, RENDER and WIF, which are now available for trading. 

Instead of the usual Santa Claus Rally, crypto spent the dying days of 2024 paring back gains made after the election of the pro-crypto Trump administration. Bitcoin fell around 15% in total to just under A$148K/US$92K as the year ended but has since gained 10.3% in the past week to trade at A$163,543/US$102,713 amid corporate buys and a resurgence of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum gained 10.7% in the past seven days to trade at A$5,894/US$3,700, and investors have withdrawn more than 80,000 ETH from exchanges over that period. XRP has once again overtaken USDT for the number 3 spot, with a 17.7% gain this week. Solana was up 13%, Dogecoin gained 22%, Cardano rose 27%, and Shiba Inu increased 14.1%. The strong US dollar eased back amid reports that Trump’s universal tariffs plan will be more targeted, and US jobs data will come out at the end of the week, which may impact prices. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.

Bitcoin has again broken through to new highs this week, hitting A$169.22K/US$108.1K, as the mining hashrate broke through 800 EH/s and the BTC/Gold ratio hit a record high. Ethereum has notched up its best price in three years to reach A$6,445/US$4,088, about 16% off a new all-time high. Speculation over an imminent US Bitcoin Reserve, new FASB accounting rules that encourage more companies to hold Bitcoin, and the glow of an incoming pro-crypto administration have all boosted the price, along with huge Bitcoin buys by MicroStrategy and inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs over the past month. This week, interest rate decisions were made in five G10 countries, including the US, where a 25 basis point cut is widely expected. After a huge rise over the past two years, Solana’s momentum has stalled over the past month as Bitcoin gained 16.7% and Ethereum rose 28.9%. Bitcoin finished the week up 9% to trade around A$165,563 (US$106,008), while Ethereum gained 7% to trade around A$6,297 (US$4,011). Solana and Shiba Inu were flat this week, XRP gained 11%, Dogecoin fell 3%, and Cardano increased 5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 83, or Extreme Greed.