Market update

The election of the first pro-crypto administration in the US is turning out to be a bumpier ride than expected. Markets went on a rollercoaster ride in the past week, with Bitcoin losing around A$18.5K/US$13.45K over four days, before recovering slightly, then spiking higher thanks to President Donald Trump’s crypto strategic reserve posts yesterday …. and then retracing almost all of the reserve linked surge overnight. Traditional markets have also been hardened by Trump’s announcement he’s going ahead today with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and that he’s doubling tariffs on China to 20%. The Atlanta Fed’s volatile GDPNow model suggests US growth is now set to tumble -2.8% this quarter, down from +2.3% last week. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade around A$138,938 (US$86,279), while Ethereum is down 13% on last week to trade around A$3,462 (US$2,152). Cardano’s surprise inclusion in the proposed reserve left it up 29% on last week, and XRP was also up 8% along with Solana Solana (3%). Other coins were down, including Dogecoin (-2%) and Shiba Inu (-9.3%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index bottomed out at 10 during the week but recovered yesterday to 33 or Fear.

Thanks to the world’s biggest-ever crypto hack, sentiment turning on memecoins, tech stocks faltering, and Trump’s reported plan to move ahead with tariffs on Mexico and Canada, crypto markets are in retreat. Kaito reports crypto sentiment is back at pre-election levels, the Bitcoin ETFs have lost A$1.46B (US$928.9M) so far in February, and Polymarket foresees just a 10% chance of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happening in Trump’s first 100 days. On the other hand, the SEC this week dropped a raft of high-profile crypto investigations and lawsuits, and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal points out that Bitcoin saw five pullbacks greater than 28% in 2017, while alts fell more than 65%. “You guys all need to learn patience,” he counselled. Bitcoin finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$146,792 (US$92,819), while Ethereum is down 7% to trade at A$4,031 (US$2,562) even after Bybit was forced to buy hundreds of millions worth of ETH to make up for funds lost in the hack. XRP lost 14% while the fallout from the Libra token launch scandal (pumped by snipers and then fell 90% in hours) and billions of unlocks coming up in March have seen Solana fall 19% in a week to its lowest price since October 2024. Dogecoin lost 18%, Cardano lost 16%, and Shiba Inu fell 10.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 49 or Neutral.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei’s disastrous involvement with the LIBRA coin appears to have been the final straw for some memecoin holders, with a sentiment shift online this week against extractive memecoins and Solana in general. Various unverified estimates are floating around, suggesting memecoins may have extracted up to A$10.4B (US$6.6 billion) from retail buyers. LookOnChain data shows the stablecoin supply on Ethereum surged A$1.73B (US$1.1B) in the past week, while A$1.2B (US$772M) exited Solana. Solana finishes the week down 10.2%, with many meme and AI coins falling much further. Meanwhile, Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.1% to trade around A$150,827 (US$95,827), while Ethereum gained 2% to trade at A$4,323 (US$2,747). ETH has seen a number of false starts to a potential recovery in the past few months. Still, Joel Kruger, a market strategist for LMAX Group, is optimistic there’s “evidence of ETH potentially wanting to finally put in a major bottom against Bitcoin after down trending since 2021.” Closer to home, interest rates are tipped to fall today, with lower rates on savings accounts sometimes encouraging investors to find better returns from more risky assets. XRP gained 8%, Dogecoin (1%), Cardano (13%), while Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47, or Neutral.

Bitcoin is still worth almost US$100K but the bearishness on social media might have you convinced the cycle is over. President Donald Trump’s tariff war — currently aimed at China, worldwide steel, and potentially the EU — and disappointing earnings reports from Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft are weighing on prices. About 70% of crypto assets traded on Binance are now below their pre-election prices, and there are now 11 million coins on Coinmarketcap, which is hampering any chance of an altseason. “Retail sentiment is the worst it’s been in years, while professional investors are extraordinarily bullish. It’s like living in two completely separate worlds,” observed Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade at A$155,024 (US$97,296), with Ethereum down 8% to trade around A$4,228 (US$2,654). XRP lost 11%, Solana fell 9%, while Dogecoin (-13%), Cardano (-14%) and Shiba Inu (-3.8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 43, or Fear.

Having recovered from last week’s DeepSeek dip, Bitcoin surged to A$170K/US$106K before President Donald Trump launched his infamous trade war. The resulting crypto carnage saw Bitcoin plunge below A$152K/US$92K and altcoins lose 20%-30% each, pushing BTC dominance above 62%. Ethereum lost 29% over two days, including a sudden 11% plunge in an hour, seemingly due to a cascade of liquidations. But as news emerged this morning that Trump had done a deal with Mexico to delay tariffs there and a similar deal with Canada, markets bounced. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% at A$163,652 (US$102,569), while Ethereum is down 8% and trading at A$4,635 (US$2,873). XRP is down 9% on the same time last week, along with Solana (-6%), Dogecoin (-11%), Cardano (-12%), and Shiba Inu (-6%). Independent Reserves’ newly listed dogwifhat is on sale at a 25.2% discount to last week, while Render is down 17%. The overall crypto market cap has regained about half its losses from the plunge and is currently at A$5.38T (US$3.35T). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 44, or Fear. Independent Reserve has also listed two new tokens, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Pepe (PEPE), which are now available for trading.

Crypto and tech stocks plunged due to the release of a new Chinese AI model called DeepSeek, which is competitive with the best models from OpenAI but claims to have training costs 95% cheaper, suggesting that US AI stocks may be overvalued. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell sharply, with A$953B (US$600B) lost overnight from Nvidia’s market cap. Bitcoin miners involved in AI, such as Core Scientific, Terawulf and Iren lost a quarter of their value. Bitcoin had risen above A$170K (US$105K) earlier in the week as hopes grew for a Bitcoin reserve announcement, but has since stabilised at around A$163,078 (US$102,797) today, which is 1% down on the same time last week. Analysts from Standard Chartered and LondonCryptoClub see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Ethereum finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$5,087 (US$102,797). XRP lost 1%, Solana lost 3%, while Dogecoin (-5%), Cardano (6%) and Shiba Inu (-8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71, or Greed.