Market update

The great “Trump Dump” of 2025 has seen carnage in markets around the world, after the US President launched a more dramatic global trade war on “Liberation Day” than expected. US markets seem particularly volatile, with an unfounded rumour of a tariff pause overnight, seeing markets jump trillions before quickly reversing when the story was denied. However, crypto analysts said the event highlighted the fact Trump can stop the turmoil at any moment (though he shows no sign of wanting to). The worst three days of damage appear to have abated temporarily, with Trump’s threat of an additional 50% tariff on China not moving the dial much lower. Crypto markets actually front ran a lot of the plunge, and Bitcoin held up well on Friday, leading to talk of “decoupling”, which dried up during Monday’s plunge. The S&P 500 is down more than 20% since February, putting it in a bear market, but the worst fears of a Black Monday style crash were not realised. Bitcoin dipped to A$123,708 (US$74.41K) yesterday but has since recovered to A$132,141 (US$79,216) to finish the week flat. Ethereum finishes the week down 11% and is trading at two-year lows around A$2,595 (US$1,557). Almost everything else was down, including XRP (-5%), Solana (-11%), Dogecoin (-6%) and Cardano (-7%), but Fartcoin somehow gained 22.3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 24 or Fear.

It’s April 1, meaning we can finally say goodbye to the worst quarter for the Bitcoin price since 2018, and the worst quarter for Ethereum since 2018. The price plunge seems mostly due to macroeconomic factors, with the Tesla chart mirroring Ethereum’s and US stocks recording their worst quarter relative to the rest of the world in 23 years. The ASX is also down 4% this year. February’s US core inflation came in above expectations at 2.8%, and consumer spending is growing by just 0.4%. The big worry is President Donald Trump’s looming ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, which The Kobeissi Letter claims “will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.” Crypto trading volumes are down 70% from the peak, and the total market cap has declined from A$5.94 trillion (US$3.9T) to A$4.26T (US $2.67T). One potential bright spot is that FTX has begun to repay creditors it owes more than A$80K (US$50K) this week. Bitcoin finishes the week down 6% to trade around A$131,763 (US$82,275), while Ethereum lost another 12% to trade around A$2,910 (US$1,817). Everything else was down, including XRP (-15%), Solana (-11%), Dogecoin (-11%) and Cardano (-10%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 34 or Fear.

President Donald Trump has signalled a potential narrowing of his tariff plans for “Liberation Day” (April 2), which saw a nice uptick in markets, even though prices remain vulnerable to the constantly changing situation. A few hours ago, Trump said, “I may give a lot of countries breaks, but it’s reciprocal.” The news helped crypto compound small gains made after US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell held interest rates steady last week and stated his belief that Trump’s tariffs will only have a “transitory” effect on inflation. Michael Saylor’s Strategy also bought another 6,911 Bitcoin for its war-chest. Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$139,302 (US$87,407), while Ethereum gained 7% to trade around A$3,304 (US$2,076). XRP was only up 5% despite news the SEC had dropped its appeal, Solana was up 9%, Dogecoin is up 5%, and Cardano gained 2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 45, or Fear.

After a rocky start, conditions have begun to improve this week. Crypto markets appear mostly driven by macro news at present, and following a significant decline, the S&P 500 had its best day of the year on March 15. This uplift followed news that a deal had been struck to avert the periodic US Government shutdown. But geopolitical risks and recession fears are still weighing heavily and the effects of President Trump’s tariff war remain unpredictable. The EU has now imposed retaliatory tariffs on A$43.8 billion (US$28B) of US goods. CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric for Bitcoin has dropped to negative 142, while Ethereum is currently trading below its realised price for the first time in two years (the average price people actually bought it for, rather than market price). That said, Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% on seven days ago to trade at A$131,782 (US$84,169), while Ethereum gained 1% to trade at around A$3,033 (US$1,936). XRP got a boost from a new payments license in the UAE and is up 11% while Solana also got a boost from the end of voting on SIMD-228 and is up 8%. Dogecoin gained 11%, and Cardano was up 3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 32, or Fear.  

Few could have predicted that President Donald Trump would both honour the insanely bullish crypto promises he made during his campaign — including the creation of a Bitcoin reserve — and that crypto markets would tank anyway. But prices are down across the board since January’s inauguration, with Bitcoin down 18.5%, Ethereum falling 35.5% and Solana diving 49.1% (TRON somehow managed to increase 2.9%). As of yesterday, Trump’s own crypto project World Liberty Financial had lost more than A$175M/US$110M on paper. The current crash isn’t primarily about crypto, however, with the Nasdaq losing 4% and the S&P 500 closing 2.8 per cent lower on Monday as Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession. Adding to the gloom, there’s a Friday deadline for an agreement to avert a US government shutdown. Even Trump’s biggest supporters are uncertain where his tariffs and trade war strategy is headed, although podcaster Anthony Pompilano argues that he’s crashing markets deliberately to get interest rates down ahead of the US refinancing A$11.1T/US$7 trillion in debt in the next six months. Bitcoin is down 7% this week to trade around A$126,577 (US$79,625), while Ethereum has fallen another 11% to trade at A$3,000 (US$1,882). Everything else was down, including XRP (-12%), Solana (-15%), Cardano (-19%) and Dogecoin (-20%). While Bitcoin is down around 28% from its peak, Rektcapital points out that BTC has seen four corrections greater than 20% this bull run, with the deepest in mid-2024, retracing 32.8%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index finishes the week at 20, or Extreme Fear.

The election of the first pro-crypto administration in the US is turning out to be a bumpier ride than expected. Markets went on a rollercoaster ride in the past week, with Bitcoin losing around A$18.5K/US$13.45K over four days, before recovering slightly, then spiking higher thanks to President Donald Trump’s crypto strategic reserve posts yesterday …. and then retracing almost all of the reserve linked surge overnight. Traditional markets have also been hardened by Trump’s announcement he’s going ahead today with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and that he’s doubling tariffs on China to 20%. The Atlanta Fed’s volatile GDPNow model suggests US growth is now set to tumble -2.8% this quarter, down from +2.3% last week. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade around A$138,938 (US$86,279), while Ethereum is down 13% on last week to trade around A$3,462 (US$2,152). Cardano’s surprise inclusion in the proposed reserve left it up 29% on last week, and XRP was also up 8% along with Solana Solana (3%). Other coins were down, including Dogecoin (-2%) and Shiba Inu (-9.3%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index bottomed out at 10 during the week but recovered yesterday to 33 or Fear.

Thanks to the world’s biggest-ever crypto hack, sentiment turning on memecoins, tech stocks faltering, and Trump’s reported plan to move ahead with tariffs on Mexico and Canada, crypto markets are in retreat. Kaito reports crypto sentiment is back at pre-election levels, the Bitcoin ETFs have lost A$1.46B (US$928.9M) so far in February, and Polymarket foresees just a 10% chance of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happening in Trump’s first 100 days. On the other hand, the SEC this week dropped a raft of high-profile crypto investigations and lawsuits, and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal points out that Bitcoin saw five pullbacks greater than 28% in 2017, while alts fell more than 65%. “You guys all need to learn patience,” he counselled. Bitcoin finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$146,792 (US$92,819), while Ethereum is down 7% to trade at A$4,031 (US$2,562) even after Bybit was forced to buy hundreds of millions worth of ETH to make up for funds lost in the hack. XRP lost 14% while the fallout from the Libra token launch scandal (pumped by snipers and then fell 90% in hours) and billions of unlocks coming up in March have seen Solana fall 19% in a week to its lowest price since October 2024. Dogecoin lost 18%, Cardano lost 16%, and Shiba Inu fell 10.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 49 or Neutral.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei’s disastrous involvement with the LIBRA coin appears to have been the final straw for some memecoin holders, with a sentiment shift online this week against extractive memecoins and Solana in general. Various unverified estimates are floating around, suggesting memecoins may have extracted up to A$10.4B (US$6.6 billion) from retail buyers. LookOnChain data shows the stablecoin supply on Ethereum surged A$1.73B (US$1.1B) in the past week, while A$1.2B (US$772M) exited Solana. Solana finishes the week down 10.2%, with many meme and AI coins falling much further. Meanwhile, Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.1% to trade around A$150,827 (US$95,827), while Ethereum gained 2% to trade at A$4,323 (US$2,747). ETH has seen a number of false starts to a potential recovery in the past few months. Still, Joel Kruger, a market strategist for LMAX Group, is optimistic there’s “evidence of ETH potentially wanting to finally put in a major bottom against Bitcoin after down trending since 2021.” Closer to home, interest rates are tipped to fall today, with lower rates on savings accounts sometimes encouraging investors to find better returns from more risky assets. XRP gained 8%, Dogecoin (1%), Cardano (13%), while Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47, or Neutral.

Bitcoin is still worth almost US$100K but the bearishness on social media might have you convinced the cycle is over. President Donald Trump’s tariff war — currently aimed at China, worldwide steel, and potentially the EU — and disappointing earnings reports from Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft are weighing on prices. About 70% of crypto assets traded on Binance are now below their pre-election prices, and there are now 11 million coins on Coinmarketcap, which is hampering any chance of an altseason. “Retail sentiment is the worst it’s been in years, while professional investors are extraordinarily bullish. It’s like living in two completely separate worlds,” observed Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade at A$155,024 (US$97,296), with Ethereum down 8% to trade around A$4,228 (US$2,654). XRP lost 11%, Solana fell 9%, while Dogecoin (-13%), Cardano (-14%) and Shiba Inu (-3.8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 43, or Fear.

Having recovered from last week’s DeepSeek dip, Bitcoin surged to A$170K/US$106K before President Donald Trump launched his infamous trade war. The resulting crypto carnage saw Bitcoin plunge below A$152K/US$92K and altcoins lose 20%-30% each, pushing BTC dominance above 62%. Ethereum lost 29% over two days, including a sudden 11% plunge in an hour, seemingly due to a cascade of liquidations. But as news emerged this morning that Trump had done a deal with Mexico to delay tariffs there and a similar deal with Canada, markets bounced. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% at A$163,652 (US$102,569), while Ethereum is down 8% and trading at A$4,635 (US$2,873). XRP is down 9% on the same time last week, along with Solana (-6%), Dogecoin (-11%), Cardano (-12%), and Shiba Inu (-6%). Independent Reserves’ newly listed dogwifhat is on sale at a 25.2% discount to last week, while Render is down 17%. The overall crypto market cap has regained about half its losses from the plunge and is currently at A$5.38T (US$3.35T). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 44, or Fear. Independent Reserve has also listed two new tokens, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Pepe (PEPE), which are now available for trading.

Crypto and tech stocks plunged due to the release of a new Chinese AI model called DeepSeek, which is competitive with the best models from OpenAI but claims to have training costs 95% cheaper, suggesting that US AI stocks may be overvalued. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell sharply, with A$953B (US$600B) lost overnight from Nvidia’s market cap. Bitcoin miners involved in AI, such as Core Scientific, Terawulf and Iren lost a quarter of their value. Bitcoin had risen above A$170K (US$105K) earlier in the week as hopes grew for a Bitcoin reserve announcement, but has since stabilised at around A$163,078 (US$102,797) today, which is 1% down on the same time last week. Analysts from Standard Chartered and LondonCryptoClub see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Ethereum finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$5,087 (US$102,797). XRP lost 1%, Solana lost 3%, while Dogecoin (-5%), Cardano (6%) and Shiba Inu (-8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71, or Greed.

Bitcoin saw wild swings of 10% this week as excitement waxed and waned over President Trump’s impact. The price hit a new all-time high above A$175K (US$109k) yesterday as speculation grew over a potential Bitcoin stockpile or reserve (the odds surged then fell on Polymarket), but has eased back today. The Bitcoin price is up 8% on the same time last week to trade around A$165,354 (US$103,755). Bearish sentiment around Ethereum reached fever point in the wake of the TRUMP memecoin launching on Solana, but it still finished the week up +4% to trade around A$5,273 (US$3,334). Some crypto media reported that XRP hit a new all-time high this week, but both Coinmarketcap and Coingecko suggest it fell short. It finishes the week up 20%. Solana broke through to a new all time high, and is up 34% for the week. Whether it can sustain that in the face of 13 million SOL being unlocked in February and March remains to be seen. Dogecoin was up 5%, alongside Cardano (6%), Chainlink (37.4%) and Shiba Inu (1.3%). The Bitcoin ETFs hauled in almost a billion dollars on Friday, bringing the total for the week to A$2.96B/US$1.86B. The Ethereum ETFs saw A$338/US$212M. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76 or Extreme Greed.