Market update

Bitcoin is still worth almost US$100K but the bearishness on social media might have you convinced the cycle is over. President Donald Trump’s tariff war — currently aimed at China, worldwide steel, and potentially the EU — and disappointing earnings reports from Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft are weighing on prices. About 70% of crypto assets traded on Binance are now below their pre-election prices, and there are now 11 million coins on Coinmarketcap, which is hampering any chance of an altseason. “Retail sentiment is the worst it’s been in years, while professional investors are extraordinarily bullish. It’s like living in two completely separate worlds,” observed Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO. Bitcoin finishes the week down 5% to trade at A$155,024 (US$97,296), with Ethereum down 8% to trade around A$4,228 (US$2,654). XRP lost 11%, Solana fell 9%, while Dogecoin (-13%), Cardano (-14%) and Shiba Inu (-3.8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 43, or Fear.

Having recovered from last week’s DeepSeek dip, Bitcoin surged to A$170K/US$106K before President Donald Trump launched his infamous trade war. The resulting crypto carnage saw Bitcoin plunge below A$152K/US$92K and altcoins lose 20%-30% each, pushing BTC dominance above 62%. Ethereum lost 29% over two days, including a sudden 11% plunge in an hour, seemingly due to a cascade of liquidations. But as news emerged this morning that Trump had done a deal with Mexico to delay tariffs there and a similar deal with Canada, markets bounced. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% at A$163,652 (US$102,569), while Ethereum is down 8% and trading at A$4,635 (US$2,873). XRP is down 9% on the same time last week, along with Solana (-6%), Dogecoin (-11%), Cardano (-12%), and Shiba Inu (-6%). Independent Reserves’ newly listed dogwifhat is on sale at a 25.2% discount to last week, while Render is down 17%. The overall crypto market cap has regained about half its losses from the plunge and is currently at A$5.38T (US$3.35T). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 44, or Fear. Independent Reserve has also listed two new tokens, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Pepe (PEPE), which are now available for trading.

Crypto and tech stocks plunged due to the release of a new Chinese AI model called DeepSeek, which is competitive with the best models from OpenAI but claims to have training costs 95% cheaper, suggesting that US AI stocks may be overvalued. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell sharply, with A$953B (US$600B) lost overnight from Nvidia’s market cap. Bitcoin miners involved in AI, such as Core Scientific, Terawulf and Iren lost a quarter of their value. Bitcoin had risen above A$170K (US$105K) earlier in the week as hopes grew for a Bitcoin reserve announcement, but has since stabilised at around A$163,078 (US$102,797) today, which is 1% down on the same time last week. Analysts from Standard Chartered and LondonCryptoClub see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Ethereum finishes the week down 3% to trade around A$5,087 (US$102,797). XRP lost 1%, Solana lost 3%, while Dogecoin (-5%), Cardano (6%) and Shiba Inu (-8%) were also down. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71, or Greed.

Bitcoin saw wild swings of 10% this week as excitement waxed and waned over President Trump’s impact. The price hit a new all-time high above A$175K (US$109k) yesterday as speculation grew over a potential Bitcoin stockpile or reserve (the odds surged then fell on Polymarket), but has eased back today. The Bitcoin price is up 8% on the same time last week to trade around A$165,354 (US$103,755). Bearish sentiment around Ethereum reached fever point in the wake of the TRUMP memecoin launching on Solana, but it still finished the week up +4% to trade around A$5,273 (US$3,334). Some crypto media reported that XRP hit a new all-time high this week, but both Coinmarketcap and Coingecko suggest it fell short. It finishes the week up 20%. Solana broke through to a new all time high, and is up 34% for the week. Whether it can sustain that in the face of 13 million SOL being unlocked in February and March remains to be seen. Dogecoin was up 5%, alongside Cardano (6%), Chainlink (37.4%) and Shiba Inu (1.3%). The Bitcoin ETFs hauled in almost a billion dollars on Friday, bringing the total for the week to A$2.96B/US$1.86B. The Ethereum ETFs saw A$338/US$212M. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76 or Extreme Greed.

Bitcoin’s pullback this week led Pantera to speculate the US election was another “Buy the rumour, sell the news” event while CoinShares wrote the “post-U.S. election honeymoon is over.” However, the overall crypto market cap is up almost $1 trillion since Trump’s election, even as the S&P 500 dropped back to its November 5 level. The big news this week was the release of the US Federal Reserve’s December minutes showing it would likely pause interest rate cuts over concerns about sticky inflation (with new inflation figures coming out mid-week). Markets were pricing in three cuts, but now it’s just one. Strong jobs data raised further inflationary concerns, and news broke about the US Government getting the green light to sell 69K Bitcoin. Bitcoin finishes the week down 7% to trade around A$152,617 (US$94,559). Ethereum lost 14% to trade around A$5,063 (US$3,136), XRP gained 5% as JPMorgan projected up to $8B inflows into a potential ETF, Solana lost 15%, while Dogecoin (-13%), Cardano (-12%) and Shiba Inu (-15%) were also down. January dumps in post-halving years are nothing new, and Bitcoin went on massive bull runs after dumping in January 2017 and January 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 61, or Greed.

Independent Reserve has also listed two new tokens, RENDER and WIF, which are now available for trading. 

Instead of the usual Santa Claus Rally, crypto spent the dying days of 2024 paring back gains made after the election of the pro-crypto Trump administration. Bitcoin fell around 15% in total to just under A$148K/US$92K as the year ended but has since gained 10.3% in the past week to trade at A$163,543/US$102,713 amid corporate buys and a resurgence of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum gained 10.7% in the past seven days to trade at A$5,894/US$3,700, and investors have withdrawn more than 80,000 ETH from exchanges over that period. XRP has once again overtaken USDT for the number 3 spot, with a 17.7% gain this week. Solana was up 13%, Dogecoin gained 22%, Cardano rose 27%, and Shiba Inu increased 14.1%. The strong US dollar eased back amid reports that Trump’s universal tariffs plan will be more targeted, and US jobs data will come out at the end of the week, which may impact prices. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.