In markets
Despite some ups and downs this week, Bitcoin is still trading around the same level it started the month. That’s a pretty solid effort considering there’s a war going on and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has been stuck at Fear for 60 days. Almost half the supply is underwater at these prices, and around 40% of altcoins are near all-time lows. Depending on where the price heads today, Bitcoin may see its sixth monthly close in the red. Publicly, the White House remains committed to its six-week timetable for ending the war, which, if true, would mean the conflict winds up in a couple of weeks. If not, surging energy prices and long-term inflation could plunge many countries into recession.
Bitcoin climbed as high as US$72K this week, but sold off along with tech stocks after a leak about Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model, which can reportedly find zero-day exploits in code and smart contracts that everyone believed were safe.
Bitcoin finishes the week down 5.6% to trade around A$97,556 (US$66,731), while Ethereum is down 5.4% to trade around A$2,960 (US$2,025). XRP lost 7% despite announcing it was joining a new cross-border trade-finance scheme in Singapore, and Solana lost 9.7% with analyst Ted Pillows noting that Solana Treasury Companies “continue to dump towards new lows”, which suggests “US$50 (A$73) SOL will happen in 2026.” Cardano declined 6.4% after its privacy-preserving ZK proofs chain, Midnight, generated its genesis block. Dogecoin fell 3.2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 11, or Extreme Fear.
From the OTC desk
Hawkish stance continues to deter crypto investors
The hawkish stance from the Fed continues to deter investors from cryptocurrency markets. FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell cited war-driven inflation as a potential cause for concern. He added that the consequences of recent events remain uncertain, leading to a pause before the committee considers whether to cut rates. The oil rally, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, could continue to fuel rising inflation and adversely affect risk assets. Before the FOMC meeting, ETF funds had a net inflow of US$635M, but this turned into an outflow of US$405M post-meeting, resulting in a net effect of +US$230M for the week.
Confusing week for safe-haven assets
Bitcoin has often been lauded as digital gold, but its correlation with physical gold has sharply collapsed amid idiosyncratic moves over the past week. Adding fuel to the fire were incendiary comments relating to the potential escalation of conflict following a 48-hour deadline issued by President Trump. However, markets reversed sharply yesterday as a new deadline was issued amid the President’s declaration of a positive outcome on social media.
Gold itself has taken a significant hit, dropping more than 30% from high to low over the course of the week. In fact, gold has been behaving like a risk asset, dipping sharply early in the week as tensions escalated, before recovering alongside the S&P 500 rebound. Oil prices appear to be behaving as the contrarian asset amid this conflict, moving inversely to the broader market.
OTC desk activity
- Market participants seemed keen to buy the dip over the week
- More on-ramp flows for the week
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEDT/AEST)
- Tuesday, Mar 31 2026 – 08:00 PM – EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash Mar (Consensus 2.4%).
- Wednesday, Apr 01 2026 – 12:45 PM – CN RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Mar (Consensus 51.6).
- Wednesday, Apr 01 2026 – 08:00 PM – EA Unemployment Rate Feb (Consensus 6.2%).
- Thursday, Apr 02 2026 – 11:30 AM – AU Balance of Trade Feb (Consensus A$2.5B).
- Thursday, Apr 02 2026 – 11:30 PM – US Initial Jobless Claims Mar/28 (Consensus 212K).
- Friday, Apr 03 2026 – 11:30 PM – US Unemployment Rate Mar (Consensus 4.4%).
- Monday, Apr 06 2026 – 11:30 AM – SG S&P Global PMI Mar (Consensus 55).
In headlines
Australian crypto adoption hits new heights
The seventh annual Independent Reserve Cryptocurrency Index (IRCI) reveals record-breaking crypto adoption across Australia. A third of Australians now hold or have invested in crypto, with 95% aware of at least one cryptocurrency. Bitcoin remains the clear favourite, held by 71% of investors, and 57% report turning a profit. Demand for regulation is strong, with 62% of investors saying exchange licensing would boost their confidence in using exchanges. Tokenised assets are gaining traction, and 41% of Australians believe crypto will achieve widespread acceptance. Read the 2026 Australian IRCI.
Australian crypto adoption by age groups (2019-2026)
Are we at the bottom yet?
Ecoinmetrics data suggests that each additional 10% decline in Bitcoin’s price adds 80 more days to the time it takes to reclaim the prior high. At the current drawdown from the top, that would mean there’s another 125 days until a new high. But Goldman Sachs’ analyst James Yaro believes Bitcoin is consolidating after reaching “the historical peak to trough average” for this cycle. Other analysts, including Alphractal and Willy Woo, think the bottom will be US$50K (A$73K) or below.
RBA goes all in on RWAs
The Reserve Bank of Australia has thrown its support behind the tokenisation of Real World Assets (RWAs), estimating it could be worth A$24 billion or more to the economy annually. Assistant Governor Brad Jones said research from Project Acacia suggested that tokenised finance and related infrastructure could be revolutionary. “We no longer see the main question as whether tokenisation has a future in Australia’s financial system, but rather, how.” Jones also said the RBA will partner with industry groups to explore a “new digital financial market infrastructure (DFMI) sandbox” for tokenised money, assets and new infrastructure.
Hostplus to offer crypto
Australia’s third-largest superannuation fund, Hostplus, hopes to offer cryptocurrency as an investment option to its ChoicePlus members. Sam Sicilia, the fund’s chief investment officer, told Bloomberg that crypto could be available as soon as the new financial year. ChoicePlus allows people to self-manage their investment options while remaining in the APRA-regulated fund. “We’d love to get regulatory tick-off, even if it means waiting another six months,” Sicilia said. AMP has previously invested in crypto, but no fund has yet offered it to clients.
Clarity Act compromise take 2
The final revised text of the US Clarity Act about providing yield on stablecoin deposits is expected to be released this week. The draft was further amended after Coinbase and Stripe baulked at an earlier compromise agreed to by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democrat Senator Angela Alsobrooks. Congress is out for two weeks for Easter, then the Banking Committee hopes to markup the bill in the final two weeks of April. If it passes there, it’ll head to the Senate for a vote. Meanwhile, crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky is worried that the new bill may force non-custodial DeFi builders to comply with money-transmitting laws. Senator Cynthia Lummis called that FUD and said there had been bipartisan work for months to “make this bill the strongest protection for DeFi and developers ever enacted.”
Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF
Investment bank Morgan Stanley has set the fees for its forthcoming NYSE-listed Bitcoin ETF at just 0.14%. That’s 11 bps cheaper than BlackRock’s IBIT. “Big move here. They are not messing around. Likely to launch in early April,” commented Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. His colleague Eric Balchunas said that Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors, which manage US$6.2 trillion (A$9.04T) in client assets, would have no problem recommending Morgan Stanley’s own ETF due to its low fees.
Other ETF news
After four weeks of inflows, the Bitcoin ETFs posted US$296.18 (A$432.1M) in outflows last week. Ethereum ETFs saw a second week of outflows in a row, losing $206.6M (A$301.5M). France’s largest bank, BNP Paribas, is launching six Bitcoin and Ether Exchange Traded Notes this week. And just for something different, Franklin Templeton is offering tokenised versions of its stock market and commodities ETFs in on-chain wallets via a partnership with Ondo Finance.
4M US merchants can now accept Bitcoin
Four million merchants across the US will now be able to accept Bitcoin after Block announced the rollout of its zero-fee service. Merchants receive US dollars directly by default from Bitcoin payments, unless they opt to receive Bitcoin.
Ethereum Economic Zone
Developers from Gnosis and Zisk have proposed the Ethereum Economic Zone framework that would allow fragmented rollups and the Ethereum base layer to connect seamlessly in a single transaction. Synchronous composability would rely on ZK proofs rather than bridges. The Ethereum Foundation is backing the scheme, and ETH would be the default gas token.
Parity and Mining bills
U.S. lawmakers Steven Horsford (Democrat) and Max Miller (Republican) have released a draft bill, the PARITY Act, that exempts capital gains taxes on stablecoin transactions under US$200 (A$292) to ease small payments. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are excluded, however, and the bill also bans crypto wash trading. Republican Sens. Cynthia Lummis and Bill Cassidy also introduced the Mined in America Act, which would encourage Bitcoin miners to base themselves in the US and to stop using Chinese equipment.
Bits and Pieces
Elon Musk’s X has hired former Aave and Base crypto dev Benji Taylor as its new head of design, fueling speculation that X Money will include crypto trading and payments. US government-backed Fannie Mae will now accept mortgages that allow Bitcoin to be used as collateral for the deposit. Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings has sold 15,133 Bitcoin, which is reportedly linked to plans to move further into AI. It’s now fallen to third place among Bitcoin corporate holders, behind Twenty One Capital. According to CoinShares, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the average cost for miners to produce a Bitcoin was around US$80K (A$117K), meaning 15-20% of mining rigs globally were operating at a loss.
The Moonshot Dispatch
Join us every Tuesday at 3 pm (AEDT) as we cover the latest crypto news, price movements and all the Bitcoin banter you may have missed. Tune in weekly on Twitter/X, YouTube, & TikTok.
Until next week, happy trading!
