In markets
Oil prices have begun to ease after the Iran-US war descended once again into an uneasy stalemate. Polymarket suggests there’s now a 72% chance of a ceasefire by 31 August.
Bitcoin neared US$67,000 earlier in the week, but has finished down 2.6% on seven days to trade around US$63,609. Ethereum is down 1.2% for the week to trade around US$1,882, while spot Ether ETFs raised US$104 million last week, three times the US$33.9 million raised by Bitcoin ETFs. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to improve, up 1.7% this week and 13% this month.
Key US inflation data will be released this week, but the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold for now. Some analysts believe crypto is starting to decouple from other risk assets, while others say the small rebound lacks the buying conviction typically seen ahead of genuine rallies. XRP was down 4.4% for the week; Solana fell 5.0%; Hyperliquid lost 10.1%; and Dogecoin was down 2.3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 30, or Fear.
From the OTC desk
Hike back on the table as war keeps oil elevated
A softer-than-expected reading on inflationary numbers came in last week for Headline Inflation Rate and Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to align with our previous mentions that inflation is likely peaking. As economic data comes in to support a disinflationary narrative, risks are shifting away from higher inflation towards geopolitical pressures in the Middle East. Unfortunately, further escalation between the US and Iran has caused oil prices to rise 25%, adding further complication to the macro backdrop, with all eyes on how long this round of bombing will last.
CLARITY deadline nears as crypto industry consolidates
The CLARITY Act has passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee. The Senate Republicans released an updated draft on 22 July, but no floor vote is scheduled, and no cloture motion has been filed. 10 August is the effective deadline before the Senate scatters for its state work period; after that, the bill sits until mid-September, when midterm politics will crowd the calendar. The passage requires 60 votes, so at least seven Democrats need to join a united Republican caucus. Meanwhile, the industry continues to consolidate. Several exchanges announced closures this month, and nearly 100 crypto projects have shut down in 2026, with liquidity increasingly concentrated among a smaller set of established platforms. For traders, the binary is straightforward. A passage would be the most significant regulatory catalyst since the ETF approvals, while failure would defer CLARITY into an election year, and likely means prolonged pain for crypto markets under regulatory uncertainty.
OTC desk activity
- Very muted volumes as markets show no clear sign of direction within the range
- Some increased interest in stablecoin purchases as USDT continues to trade at a significant discount
Key economic calendar events
In headlines
Samsung to add stablecoins to Galaxy phones
Samsung, the world’s largest Android smartphone manufacturer, is preparing to bring stablecoins to Samsung Wallet. The plan was announced during the annual Galaxy Unpacked showcase, with Samsung describing the feature as a way to combine payments, rewards, and digital assets within a single mobile experience. Some reports suggest it could enable crypto payments for hundreds of millions of Galaxy users worldwide, without requiring a crypto app or exchange wallet. The details and timeline are pretty vague for now.
South Korea nixes unlicensed crypto apps
South Korean regulators have removed 29 unlicensed crypto exchange apps from the Google Play Store, including those from OKX, Kucoin, Gemini, and Bybit. Average daily trading volume on the five biggest exchanges in Korea has plummeted 89% compared to the same month in July 2025. The Financial Commission has announced it will advance the Digital Asset Basic Act as soon as possible. The act focuses on stablecoins and would remove the ban on corporate participation. South Korea’s KB Kookmin Bank will launch a blockchain-based cross-border payment service for import and export businesses in August, using JPMorgan’s Kinexys blockchain.
DeFi vaults may be securities
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said the SEC believes crypto vaults and on-chain lending strategies may fall under federal US securities laws, depending on how they are structured and managed. “Tokenised securities are still securities,” said the crypto-friendly commissioner. “That principle holds for vaults.” Offering yield via vaults has become big business with US$8.6 billion in crypto across 788 curated vaults, according to Vaults.fyi.
BitMex shuts down
One of the oldest exchanges (but still younger than Independent Reserve!), BitMEX, is closing down in September after 11 years. Founded by Arthur Hayes and friends, the exchange introduced perpetual futures in 2016 and popularised 100X leverage products. By 2019, the company had reached a trillion dollars in annual volume, but its key executives were charged with violating the Bank Secrecy Act in 2020, pleaded guilty in 2022, and were later pardoned by Trump. Increased competition from the big five centralised platforms and new on-chain competitors like Hyperliquid has seen BitMEX’s share of the futures market slide to just 0.08%. BitMart also announced it would cease trading by 26 August.
S&P’s new crypto benchmark index
S&P Dow Jones Indices has teamed up with Pantera Capital to launch the S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index, which they hope will become the benchmark for institutional investors allocating to digital assets. The index screens out blockchains based on minimum revenue thresholds and, controversially, excludes Bitcoin and XRP. The five largest holdings are Ether, BNB, Solana, TRON, and Hyperliquid.
Singapore crypto news
The Monetary Authority of Singapore has increased the steepness of the Singapore dollar’s nominal effective rate by 50 basis points, enabling the Singapore dollar to strengthen at an estimated pace of 1% per year. The Singapore Police Force and the US FBI have signed an MOU to strengthen joint operations and intelligence-sharing on online scams, cyber fraud, and money laundering. It follows the success of a recent joint operation targeting cross-border crypto scams. On-chain investigator Specter estimates that losses from a drain of Singapore payments firm Triple-A’s hot wallets have reached about US$11.8 million. Triple-A said customer funds were not affected.
Network School was kicked out of Malaysia
Malaysia’s hopes of being seen as a forward-looking digital tech hub have suffered a blow after authorities revoked the business license of former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan’s Network School. The crypto utopian school, based on the Network States concept, had been at the centre of a recent scandal over Israeli attendees. The Network School subsequently signed an MOU with Kazakhstan to relocate there, a country positioning itself as an emerging technology hub with plans for Central Asia’s first crypto city in Alatau.
CLARITY Act vote this week
Time is running out for the CLARITY Act to pass before the US Senate recesses on 7 August. Negotiations are continuing, and bipartisan text is expected to be sent to the White House in the next couple of days. Multiple sources report that an initial vote on CLARITY will happen this week, but Punchbowl News says that even if it gets 60 votes to proceed, there’s not enough time to get through 30 hours of debate and amendments, and a second cloture vote, before the final vote in time. There’s talk of extending the session. The banks are reportedly still trying to spoil the bill, but the key decider will be whether President Trump and the Democrats can negotiate a compromise on ethics provisions he’s offered. The Democrats don’t trust the Trump-appointed Attorney General to enforce the act, and Trump doesn’t want to hand enforcement to 50 state attorneys general, some of whom have already tied him up in court for years. Democrats (and at least one Republican) see the ethics rules as toothless, not least because they expire on the day he leaves office. CLARITY does have the support of Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Franklin and BlackRock, as well as the National Fraternal Order of Police.
The Moonshot Dispatch
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