Market update
Bitcoin rose 6.9% last month, making it the best September in more than a decade (it usually averages a 3.44% loss.) While ‘Uptober’ usually averages a 22.9% return and November averages 46.8%, that’s far from guaranteed, and Bitcoin took a 4% dive on the final day of the month over concerns about a possible US slowdown, the pace of rate cuts, and the AI bubble popping. CoinDesk reports that options traders are positioning for more weakness until the US presidential election is over. However, China is embarking on a round of stimulus measures, which could drive crypto higher over the next year. Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at around A$91,560 (US$62,993), while Ethereum lost 2% to trade at around A$3,765 (US$2,617). Solana continues to perform with a 5% rise, and XRP gained 4%. Even Donald Trump posting DOGE memes couldn’t get Dogecoin above a 5% rise, but a new Japanese PM called Shigeru Ishiba propelled Shiba Inu to a 27% weekly gain. Cardano rose 1%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.
Whether thanks to Vitalik Buterin singing at Token2049, Donald Trump buying a burger with BTC — or, most likely, a 50 basis points interest rate cut in the US — crypto markets have taken a turn for the better. Bitcoin finishes the week up 7% to trade around A$92,295 (US$63,032), and Ethereum has fought its way from beneath a mountain of bearish commentary to record a 16% gain this week to trade around A$3,900 (US$2,663), with ETH/BTC increasing to 0.0424. Its performance was even better than Solana’s 9% gain after bullish announcements at its Breakpoint conference. XRP dropped 1%, Dogecoin gained 8.7%, and Cardano was up 8%, with founder Charles Hoskinson set to meet with Argentina president Javier Milei next month. Microstrategy has bought another 7,420 BTC, and this month is on track (so far) to be Bitcoin’s best-performing September ever. Rekt Capital points out that historically, Bitcoin has broken out from its reaccumulation range 154-161 days after the Halving. “It is 157 days after the Halving now,” he writes. “History suggests it is ‘Breakout Time’ for Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54, or Neutral.
Bitcoin began to show signs of life a few days ago after futures markets suddenly began to reflect a 47% chance the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points. While cuts are usually a good thing for risk assets, there are concerns the cuts might indicate the Fed foresees trouble ahead. Senator Elizabeth Warren has even called on the Fed to make a 75 BPS cut to avoid a recession. Bitcoin reversed the week’s gains in the past day or so as macroeconomic worries came to the fore, including concerns about China’s slowdown. Bitcoin finished the week up 0% to trade around A$85,824 (US$58,122), while Ethereum finished 5% down on the same time last week to trade at A$3,370 (US$2,284) as bearishness about the L2 roadmap continues. Solana fell 5% (daily fees are now around A$216K/US$146K from a high of A$7.5M/US$5.1M in March), XRP gained 6%, Dogecoin fell 4.1% and Cardano (-4%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 33, or Fear.
Crypto markets took a dive following a mixed jobs report in the US which showed employers had added 142,000 new jobs in August — 18,000 less than forecast. Despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, it added to concerns the US still might go into recession. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen then popped up to argue the economy was “deep into a recovery.” US stocks bounced back from the dip, and Bitcoin gained 5% overnight. However, BTC still finishes the week down 2% on seven days ago to trade around A$85,756 (US$57,304). Ethereum is down 6% to trade around A$3,531 (US$2,336). Solana was flat despite falling transactions and TVL, XRP lost 4% but Cardano rose 4%. Dogecoin gained 4.6%, possibly because Elon Musk has been tapped by Trump to head up a government waste task force and has been posting memes about the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE). After dipping into Extreme Fear, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 33, or Fear. If you take a long-term view the picture remains rosy according to MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor who tips Bitcoin is headed to A$19.5M (US$13M).
August was not a great month for prices, with Bitcoin falling 8.7% and ETH and SOL losing more than 20% each. Unfortunately, history suggests September is usually hit with an average loss of 6%. That said, US interest rate cuts are finally expected to be cut later this month, and Rekt Capital says in previous halvings, Bitcoin broke out about 150-160 days afterwards, which would be late September. He also notes that average October returns are 22.9%. As far as this week’s price action goes, Bitcoin is currently down 6% from seven days ago to trade at around A$87,342 (US$59,611), while Ethereum is down 5% to trade at around A$3,750 (US$2,559). Solana collapsed 14% as the memecoin degens decamped, XRP lost 4%, Cardano lost 9%, despite (or perhaps because of) its Chang hard fork, and Dogecoin was down 12.1%. Understandably, sentiment has dropped to low levels, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 26, or Fear.
Bitcoin surged by almost 5% in a few hours on Saturday after the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell said “the time has come for policy to adjust.” US interest rates are now widely expected to fall in mid-September which is good news for risk assets. RFK Jr also dropped out of the race for the White House that day, potentially increasing the chances of a pro-crypto Donald Trump victory. Bitcoin is now back above the Short-Term Holder Realised Price, which is “bullish” news, according to analyst Philip Swift. It finishes the week up 3% to trade around A$93,005 (US$63,363). Ethereum also gained 1% over the past seven days to trade around A$3,972 (US$2,677). Solana was up 8% despite the memecoin craze cooling and daily transaction fees falling to levels last seen in May. XRP lost 3%, Dogecoin gained 1%, and Cardano surged by 7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 55, or Greed.
In a week that marks 53 years since President Richard Nixon took the US off the gold standard, leaving the US dollar essentially unbacked, Bitcoin traded as high as A$92.6K (US$61.7K) and as low as A$86K (US$56.8K)… but finishes the week pretty much where it began at A$89,774 (US$60,752). Ethereum lost 2.8% over the same period and is currently trading around A$3,945 (US$2,642). The memecoin craze may finally be waning, with Coinshares attributing a record A$57.9M (US$39M) outflow from Solana funds last week to a “sharp decline in trading volumes of meme coins, on which it [Solana] heavily relies.” Solana and Cardano were flat, XRP gained 5.5% and Dogecoin fell by 5.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 30, or Fear, which is a marginal improvement on last week’s 25 or Extreme Fear.
Congratulations — you survived the bear market of August 5 to 8. This time last week, things were looking grim, with Bitcoin plunging to $A77K (US$49.8K) as traditional markets tanked. But Bitcoin went on to jump 12% on Thursday, which was the biggest single-day rise since February 2022. The Bank of Japan soothed fears of any further interest rate rises, and Bitcoin whales bought the dip, according to Santiment. Despite a “death cross” appearing on the charts (often not that deadly), Bitcoin has recovered almost all of the ground it lost in the crash and finishes the week up 5% from last Tuesday. Ethereum was hit harder, and while it finished the week at 7%, it remained 8% below its pre-crash price. Solana gained 3%, XRP (10%), Dogecoin (7%) and Cardano (2%). With Iran still indicating it will launch an attack on Israel and US inflation and retail sales data out this week, there are still plenty of risks. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger told Blockworks: “Technically speaking, there has been nothing in recent price action to suggest anything more than choppy trade.” With August and September typically poor months for crypto market returns, analysts appear to be coalescing on October as the most likely time for price appreciation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 25, or Extreme Fear.
Stocks and crypto markets took a dramatic dive on Monday. While there are growing fears of a recession in the US as unemployment rises—and even talk of emergency rate cuts—the main catalyst appears to be the worst one-day plunge on Japan’s Nikkei index since Black Monday in 1987, amid the violent unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade.
Crypto spring has returned with 11 straight days of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs, this week’s scheduled launch of the Ethereum ETFs, and the appearance by pro-crypto Presidential candidate Donald Trump at Bitcoin 2024. The developments have temporarily outweighed concerns about a possible A$13.5B (US$9B) Mt Gox creditor dump. (An unscientific Reddit poll of creditors suggests 56% plan to HODL their recovered Bitcoin anyway). Adding to the fun Elon Musk has just changed his profile pic to laser eyes, but no one is quite sure if it’s a crack at Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, or a hint the X owner will be making a Bitcoin announcement at Bitcoin 2024 as well. Bitcoin dipped briefly after Biden’s withdrawal announcement came through (as it makes Trump’s election less likely) but the price quickly recovered and Bitcoin is up 6.3% on the same time last week to trade around A$101,879 (US$68K). While the price is up, demand from retail investors (sub US$10K/A$15K traders) is at a three year low according to CryptoQuant. ARK invest analyst David Puell also says on chain indicators suggest Bitcoin is currently oversold and in the “deep value” zone. Ethereum barely managed to recover earlier losses to trade around A$5,183 (US$3,425) suggesting uncertainty over the ETF inflows. Solana surged 15% as various rumours fly around about potential ETFs, XRP gained 11% on news it may soon settle litigation with the SEC, Dogecoin was up 12%. Cardano lost 3% and Shiba Inu declined 13%. Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.
Bearish sentiment caused by the great German Bitcoin selloff and Mt Gox repayments has abated. The catalyst appears to be the attempted assassination of Donald Trump boosting the pro-crypto candidate’s chances of getting elected up to 71% on Polymarket. Bitcoin surged 8.2% from A$86K (US$58,340) to its current A$96,124 (US$65,310) in the aftermath of the assassination attempt and is up 14% for the week. Many analysts now believe we have bounced off a local bottom and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index surged almost 20 points in a day to its current 52, or neutral. Wildly speculative, unsourced rumours that China may be reconsidering overturning its crypto ban may also be playing a part. The ASX hit a record high of 8,000 points, and in the US the market is now pricing in a 95% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Ethereum gained 15% this week to trade at A$5,162 (US$3,471), Solana gained 16%, XRP surged 25%, Dogecoin (15.7%), Cardano (22%) and Shiba Inu (16.9%).