Market update

Crypto publications are busy prepping their ‘Bitcoin breaks US$100K’ articles (A$154K), and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor is already organising a party. With Bitcoin trading in a 7% range this week and nudging A$143K/US$93K on November 13, the milestone doesn’t seem far off. Retail appears to be coming back with a big increase in BTC transactions with values under A$154K/US$100K, and new money is flowing in with the total stablecoin index hitting a new all-time high. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at lows last seen in 2018, and Bitcoin futures open interest is at an all-time high. That said, while the future for crypto looks bright, the Buffett Indicator (which takes the market cap of total US stocks and divides it by the US GDP) also sits at a record 208% — and topping 100% is considered an early warning of a potential crash. Bitcoin’s ATH comes at the expense of the ETH/BTC chart, which has fallen to 0.03367. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2% to trade around A$139,288 (US$90,147), while Ethereum fell 4% to A$4,925 (US$3,187). Solana gained another 10% as trading volume hit a new record. But SOL was outshone by XRP, which is up 86% this week. Cardano was up 24%, Dogecoin was up 3% (and 163% for the month), while Shiba Inu fell 18%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 90, or Extreme Greed.

Crypto markets are euphoric following pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump’s US election victory and the promise of a fresh start for the industry. Bitcoin has surged to a new inflation-adjusted all-time high and keeps going up. At the time of writing, it had gained 19.4% on a week ago to trade at A$135,190 (US$89,328). Analyst James Check said Bitcoin has entered the “euphoria zone by convincingly breaking through the previous cycle’s ATH.” Ethereum gained 40% this week to trade around A$5,115 (US$3,346). It’s expected to benefit considerably from the new administration, as many of the most interesting and useful financial use cases on ETH have been under a regulatory cloud for years. Solana also gained 40% and is only the fourth cryptocurrency to top an A$152B/US$100B market cap, XRP gained 22%, while Cardano surged 86% after founder Charles Hoskinson talked up his influence in Washington. Dogecoin gained 109%, as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) looks like it is becoming a reality, and fellow dog coin Shiba Inu gained 62%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.

After getting a little too carried away with the prospects of victory for pro-crypto Presidential candidate Donald Trump, crypto markets dropped six days in a row as polls remained stuck at 50/50 and prediction market odds tightened. However, Coinshares reports digital asset investment funds took US$2.2 billion (A$3.3B) in inflows over the past week, suggesting institutional confidence, while the Kimchi Premium for Bitcoin is back in South Korea, where it’s trading 2.2% higher than elsewhere. Elsewhere, Iran has suggested it may hit Israel again, which would likely affect crypto markets. “Uptober” lived up to its name, but Bitcoin’s 11% monthly gain was half the historical average. Bitcoin finished the week down 4% from seven days ago to trade around A$103,434 (US$68,382), while Ethereum fell 8% to A$3,653 (US$2,391). Solana dropped 11%, alongside XRP (-4%), Dogecoin (-3%), Cardano (-5%), and Shiba Inu (-7%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.

After a sharp drop on the weekend due to Tether FUD and Israel’s tit-for-tat attack on Iran, Bitcoin has powered its way back to a three-month high above A$106.4K (the US$70K mark) thanks to optimism around the US election and Iran’s disinterest in escalation. The charts saw a Golden Cross, where the 50-day moving average exceeds the 200-day moving average, which often confirms a shift in momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 5% for the week, trading at around A$106,049 (US$70,101). Elsewhere, bearish retail sentiment surrounds ETH, with Solana hitting fresh highs against it and ETH/BTC plumbing new lows. However, long-term holders and whales continue to have high conviction in the roadmap, and A$6.1B ETH (US$4B) has been withdrawn from exchanges to HODL in just a few weeks. Ethereum finishes the week down 2% to trade around A$3,878 (US$2,550). Solana gained 7%, with great metrics around usage and volume; XRP lost 3%, Cardano fell 4%, and Shiba Inu was down 1.5%. Dogecoin got a 14% bump this week after being mentioned in Trump’s campaign event, with supporter Elon Musk set to head up the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) in the Trump administration. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or Greed.

With US equities trading near all-time highs and the possibility of a more pro-crypto administration growing, Bitcoin has been flirting with the A$105K (US$70K) mark. The notional open interest of USD-denominated Bitcoin futures on major exchanges topped 592,000 BTC on the weekend for the first time since late 2022, suggesting new money entering the market. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that inflation is down in Japan, lowering the risk of an interest rate hike and weakening the Yen, and China has cut its benchmark lending rates. “Risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative,” QCP traders said. The big wildcard remains Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack. Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$101,244 (US$67,033), while Ethereum gained 3% to trade just above A$4,002 (US$2,649). Solana gained another 7%, while XRP and Cardano gained 1%. Shiba Inu was flat, while Dogecoin shot up 21% off the back of another Elon Musk endorsement. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.

Uptober has finally been renewed for its 2024 season, with a 5% jump in the Bitcoin price over the past day. Although core US inflation came in hot at 3.3% rather than the expected 3.2%, a bunch of other positive news emerged, including Mt Gox pushing out its repayments timetable by a year, China moving toward more stimulus measures, pro-crypto Republican Donald Trump looking increasingly likely to win the election, and his opponent Democrat Kamala Harris warming toward crypto. Last week, the Bitcoin ETFs raked in A$518.4 million (US$348.5M) in net inflows. Prices also surged in the final weeks of the previous two US elections, and historically, October has been a strong month for crypto markets (it’s never made a new monthly low since October 12). Bitcoin is up 5% from the same time last week to trade around A$97,699 (US$65,990), and 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero predicted that if BTC can cross the A$104K/US$70K mark, “all hell’s gonna break loose.” Ethereum gained 8% to trade at A$3,898 (US$2,606). It was all green across the board as Solana gained 9%, XRP was up by 4%, and Cardano made 2%. Memes rebounded, too, with Dogecoin up 7% and Shiba Inu gaining 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 65 or Greed.

Iran’s missile attack on Israel last week missed most of its targets, but it did hit Uptober. While there’s been a recovery, expect volatility in the event of a counterattack by Israel. Geopolitical tensions aside, macro conditions aren’t looking too bad, with the US economy gaining 254K jobs, well ahead of expectations of 140K. Interest rates are on their way down, China has begun to inject stimulus into its flagging economy, and the FTX creditor repayment plan has been approved. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% to trade around A$92,288 (US$62,670), while Ethereum is down 5% to A$3,594 (US$2,415). Altcoins had a mixed week, with Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano all falling by around 4%. The biggest loser, however, was XRP, falling a staggering 12%. This comes as the SEC appeals its lost securities case against XRP’s parent company, Ripple. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50 or neutral.

Bitcoin rose 6.9% last month, making it the best September in more than a decade (it usually averages a 3.44% loss.) While ‘Uptober’ usually averages a 22.9% return and November averages 46.8%, that’s far from guaranteed, and Bitcoin took a 4% dive on the final day of the month over concerns about a possible US slowdown, the pace of rate cuts, and the AI bubble popping. CoinDesk reports that options traders are positioning for more weakness until the US presidential election is over. However, China is embarking on a round of stimulus measures, which could drive crypto higher over the next year. Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at around A$91,560 (US$62,993), while Ethereum lost 2% to trade at around A$3,765 (US$2,617). Solana continues to perform with a 5% rise, and XRP gained 4%. Even Donald Trump posting DOGE memes couldn’t get Dogecoin above a 5% rise, but a new Japanese PM called Shigeru Ishiba propelled Shiba Inu to a 27% weekly gain. Cardano rose 1%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.

Whether thanks to Vitalik Buterin singing at Token2049, Donald Trump buying a burger with BTC — or, most likely, a 50 basis points interest rate cut in the US — crypto markets have taken a turn for the better. Bitcoin finishes the week up 7% to trade around A$92,295 (US$63,032), and Ethereum has fought its way from beneath a mountain of bearish commentary to record a 16% gain this week to trade around A$3,900 (US$2,663), with ETH/BTC increasing to 0.0424. Its performance was even better than Solana’s 9% gain after bullish announcements at its Breakpoint conference. XRP dropped 1%, Dogecoin gained 8.7%, and Cardano was up 8%, with founder Charles Hoskinson set to meet with Argentina president Javier Milei next month. Microstrategy has bought another 7,420 BTC, and this month is on track (so far) to be Bitcoin’s best-performing September ever. Rekt Capital points out that historically, Bitcoin has broken out from its reaccumulation range 154-161 days after the Halving. “It is 157 days after the Halving now,” he writes. “History suggests it is ‘Breakout Time’ for Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54, or Neutral.

Bitcoin began to show signs of life a few days ago after futures markets suddenly began to reflect a 47% chance the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points. While cuts are usually a good thing for risk assets, there are concerns the cuts might indicate the Fed foresees trouble ahead. Senator Elizabeth Warren has even called on the Fed to make a 75 BPS cut to avoid a recession. Bitcoin reversed the week’s gains in the past day or so as macroeconomic worries came to the fore, including concerns about China’s slowdown. Bitcoin finished the week up 0% to trade around A$85,824 (US$58,122), while Ethereum finished 5% down on the same time last week to trade at A$3,370 (US$2,284) as bearishness about the L2 roadmap continues. Solana fell 5% (daily fees are now around A$216K/US$146K from a high of A$7.5M/US$5.1M in March), XRP gained 6%, Dogecoin fell 4.1% and Cardano (-4%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 33, or Fear.

Crypto markets took a dive following a mixed jobs report in the US which showed employers had added 142,000 new jobs in August — 18,000 less than forecast. Despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, it added to concerns the US still might go into recession. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen then popped up to argue the economy was “deep into a recovery.” US stocks bounced back from the dip, and Bitcoin gained 5% overnight. However, BTC still finishes the week down 2% on seven days ago to trade around A$85,756 (US$57,304). Ethereum is down 6% to trade around A$3,531 (US$2,336). Solana was flat despite falling transactions and TVL, XRP lost 4% but Cardano rose 4%. Dogecoin gained 4.6%, possibly because Elon Musk has been tapped by Trump to head up a government waste task force and has been posting memes about the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE). After dipping into Extreme Fear, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 33, or Fear. If you take a long-term view the picture remains rosy according to MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor who tips Bitcoin is headed to A$19.5M (US$13M).

August was not a great month for prices, with Bitcoin falling 8.7% and ETH and SOL losing more than 20% each. Unfortunately, history suggests September is usually hit with an average loss of 6%. That said, US interest rate cuts are finally expected to be cut later this month, and Rekt Capital says in previous halvings, Bitcoin broke out about 150-160 days afterwards, which would be late September. He also notes that average October returns are 22.9%. As far as this week’s price action goes, Bitcoin is currently down 6% from seven days ago to trade at around A$87,342 (US$59,611), while Ethereum is down 5% to trade at around A$3,750 (US$2,559). Solana collapsed 14% as the memecoin degens decamped, XRP lost 4%, Cardano lost 9%, despite (or perhaps because of) its Chang hard fork, and Dogecoin was down 12.1%. Understandably, sentiment has dropped to low levels, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 26, or Fear.