Market update

Bitcoin sailed through the US$40K (A$60.4K) mark yesterday and then broke the US$42K (A$63.45K) mark today thanks to ever-growing confidence about an early January approval of a Bitcoin ETF. There is the risk of a big fall of course, if those expectations are not met. Bitcoin finished the week up 12% to trade around A$63,420 (US$41,816), while Ethereum gained 10% to trade around A$3,395 (US$2,238) at the time of writing. Bitcoin is now at levels last seen in April 2022, before the Terra collapse, and the BTC market cap has overtaken Berkshire Hathaway’s (value investing icon Charlie Munger who passed away this week). Apart from anticipation over the ETF, the apparent peak of interest rates in the US has reportedly been met with a “dash for trash“, with gold, small caps and speculative tech stocks benefiting along with crypto. US crypto stocks surged on Monday, and Coinbase, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms are closing in on astonishing 300% gains for the year. Elsewhere, XRP was up 3%, Solana gained 11%, Cardano 7% and Dogecoin 14%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.

Bitcoin surged to a new high for the year above A$58,000 (US$38.2K) on Friday, and markets have just seen the first 10-day streak of positive stablecoin growth since February, indicating as analyst Dogetoshi noted that “Money is once again reentering the system.” The market has pulled back since, with Santiment reporting last night that two-thirds of the top 100 coins have retraced and “several have lost a large chunk of their November profits.” Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at $56,575 (US$37,260), while Ethereum was flat at $3,082 (US$2,029). XRP lost 1% for the week, Solana (-2%), and Cardano (-1%), while Dogecoin was flat. Despite the crypto market wobbles, the broader picture is looking positive, with Coinbase stock surging to its highest level since early 2022 and institutional crypto funds adding US$346 million (A$524M) of inflows, the highest amount since late 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 66 or Greed.

The possibility of up to US$100 billion (A$152B) flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs has propelled the price upwards by 25% in the past month. This week BTC has been threatening to break through the US$38K (A$57.9K) mark – a price it hasn’t touched since April last year. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.8% to trade around A$57,500 (US$37,500), while Ethereum is down 1.5% to trade at A$3,100 (US$2,027). XRP lost 7%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano rose 9% (interestingly, both were named securities once again in the SEC’s new case against Kraken), and Dogecoin was up 5%. Further down the list, Synthetix rose by a third. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 69 or Greed.

After surging to almost A$59,000 (US$37.9K) this week, Bitcoin is currently taking a bit of a breather and finishes the week up 1% trade around A$56,920 (US$36.4K). Ethereum got a big boost from BlackRock’s ETF filing and finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$3,198 (US$2,044), above the psychological US$2K mark. XRP pulled back by 9%, Solana jumped another 22%, Cardano lost 5%, while Dogecoin was flat. The overall crypto market cap is at A$2.21 trillion (US$1.4T) and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72.

We’re back! That’s the prevailing sentiment thanks to Bitcoin’s 29% gain in “Uptober” and double-digit price gains for some altcoins this week. Bitcoin has more than doubled in price so far this year, The Simpsons just did another crypto episode, and the prospects for a Santa Claus rally look enticing. As ever, things could fall apart quickly, with JP Morgan chair Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning that geopolitical conflicts could result in a global recession. Here in Australia, analysts now expect a possible Cup Day rate hike to be followed in short order by another rise. Bitcoin finished the week up 1.8% to trade around A$54,000 (US$35.1K), while Ethereum gained 4% on seven days ago to trade around A$2,919 (US$1,900). There’s a mini-altseason going on with Ripple up 20%, Solana gaining 16%, Cardano increasing 19% and Dogecoin up 8%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed which is the highest level since the all-time high in November 2021.

Crypto has decoupled from stocks in the short term, with a tech stock wipeout midweek, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting correction territory of 10% down from recent highs (though both recovered a bit on Monday). Bitcoin appears to have found a new home around the $A54K/US$34K mark and finishes the week up 3.5% to trade at A$54,350 (US$34,480). Ethereum was up 2.7% on seven days ago to trade around $2,853 (US$1,810). XRP gained 5.35%, Solana (10.1%), Cardano (9.3%) and Dogecoin (4.5%). Searches for “Buy Bitcoin” surged 826% in the UK in the past week, and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously sold his BTC stack in 2022, now regrets the move, saying: “I don’t own any Bitcoin but I should.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 68, or Greed.