Market update

Crypto spring has returned with 11 straight days of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs, this week’s scheduled launch of the Ethereum ETFs, and the appearance by pro-crypto Presidential candidate Donald Trump at Bitcoin 2024. The developments have temporarily outweighed concerns about a possible A$13.5B (US$9B) Mt Gox creditor dump. (An unscientific Reddit poll of creditors suggests 56% plan to HODL their recovered Bitcoin anyway). Adding to the fun Elon Musk has just changed his profile pic to laser eyes, but no one is quite sure if it’s a crack at Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, or a hint the X owner will be making a Bitcoin announcement at Bitcoin 2024 as well. Bitcoin dipped briefly after Biden’s withdrawal announcement came through (as it makes Trump’s election less likely) but the price quickly recovered and Bitcoin is up 6.3% on the same time last week to trade around A$101,879 (US$68K). While the price is up, demand from retail investors (sub US$10K/A$15K traders) is at a three year low according to CryptoQuant. ARK invest analyst David Puell also says on chain indicators suggest Bitcoin is currently oversold and in the “deep value” zone. Ethereum barely managed to recover earlier losses to trade around A$5,183 (US$3,425) suggesting uncertainty over the ETF inflows. Solana surged 15% as various rumours fly around about potential ETFs, XRP gained 11% on news it may soon settle litigation with the SEC, Dogecoin was up 12%. Cardano lost 3% and Shiba Inu declined 13%. Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.

Bearish sentiment caused by the great German Bitcoin selloff and Mt Gox repayments has abated. The catalyst appears to be the attempted assassination of Donald Trump boosting the pro-crypto candidate’s chances of getting elected up to 71% on Polymarket. Bitcoin surged 8.2% from A$86K (US$58,340) to its current A$96,124 (US$65,310) in the aftermath of the assassination attempt and is up 14% for the week. Many analysts now believe we have bounced off a local bottom and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index surged almost 20 points in a day to its current 52, or neutral. Wildly speculative, unsourced rumours that China may be reconsidering overturning its crypto ban may also be playing a part. The ASX hit a record high of 8,000 points, and in the US the market is now pricing in a 95% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Ethereum gained 15% this week to trade at A$5,162 (US$3,471), Solana gained 16%, XRP surged 25%, Dogecoin (15.7%), Cardano (22%) and Shiba Inu (16.9%).

The bull market appears to have been temporarily suspended due to the prospect of large amounts of Bitcoin flowing on to the markets from Mt Gox, and the German government. Bitcoin finished the week down 11% at A$83,793 (US$56,242), while Ethereum was hit even harder and pulled back 14% to A$4,471 (US$2,999). Everything else was in the red including Solana (-8%), XRP (-12%), Dogecoin (-11.6%), Cardano (-10%) and Shiba Inu (-3.5%). On the upside, Santiment says that the MVRV scores for Dogecoin, Uniswap, Ethereum, Link, XRP and Cardano indicate a potential buy the dip opportunity. Wall Street traders are also pricing in a 72% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September which should make macro conditions more favourable. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at the lowest point since January 2023 at 28, or Fear.

After dropping below A$89K (US$59K) in the wake of the Mt Gox repayments news, Bitcoin has recently staged a recovery and the price jumped 4% a day or so ago. BTC is currently trading at A$94,354 (US$63.1K) which puts it 4% up on the same time last week. Ethereum is trading around A$5,160 (US$3,451) which is 3% up on the same time last week. Solana led the altcoin gains with an 11% rise thanks to speculation over a potential ETF, XRP gained 0.15%, Dogecoin (3.5%), Cardano (7%) and Shiba Inu (7%). The US Bitcoin ETFs ended June in the black, with a net A$1.03 billion (US$688 million) of inflows. However, the final week of June saw around A$56M (US$37.3M) in outflows. Historically July is a positive month for crypto markets with an average gain of 7.42%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 53, or Neutral.

Bitcoin spent most of the week trading slowly down from A$100.6K (US$66.3) to A$97K (US$64K) before taking the elevator down A$7K (US$4K) yesterday as news emerged that Mount Gox would finally start to repay $9.4B in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to creditors from next month. The dump calls into question the efficient market hypothesis in relation to crypto given the repayments have been known about for a very long time and have caused a number of drops in the past year. But even prior to the latest news things were looking downbeat though with Bitcoin whale activity dropping 40%, futures traders turning bearish, and Santiment’s weighted sentiment index negative for a month straight. At the time of writing Bitcoin was down 8% on the same time last week at A$90,462 (US$60.3K) while Ethereum was down 3% to A$5,030 (US$3,356). Solana was down 2%, XRP (-3%), Dogecoin (-8.8%), and Shiba Inu (-5%) while Cardano was flat (-0%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 51 or neutral.

Despite Bitcoin’s 30 days volatility hitting historic lows, a wave of volatility overnight saw around A$438M (US$290 million) in liquidations across the market. The US Fed took a hawkish tone and kept interest rates on hold at 5.5%, so the combined effects of inflation, high interest rates and Bitcoin miners capitulating, has been weighing on prices. Bitcoin finishes the week down 4% to trade at A$100,940 (US$66.6K) while Ethereum also lost 4% and is trading around A$5332 (US$3520). Solana was down 9.8%, but XRP actually gained 2.1% after its nemesis, SEC crypto unit boss David Hirsch resigned (no, he didn’t join  Pump.fun, that was a gag.) Dogecoin lost 10%, Cardano fell 8.1% and Shiba Inu was down 7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 or Greed. 

With massive ETF inflows, Bitcoin looked like it was heading toward new all-time highs last week, but it came crashing back to earth following stronger than expected US jobs data, which increases the chances of inflation numbers and interest rates remaining elevated. Record leverage build up on Bitcoin futures was flushed out as Bitcoin fell from A$108.5K (US$71.9K) to A$104.6K (US$68.9K). A US Federal Reserve meeting and CPI data are due out this week, with analysts scrapping predictions for a July rate cut. However, Europe and  Canada have already cut rates. Bitcoin finished the week flat at A$104,884 (US$69.5K) while Ethereum eased back 2.7% to A$5,545 (US$3,673). Elsewhere it was a sea of red with Solana (-3.8%), XRP (-4.7%) and Cardano (-4.1%) all falling. The slide in meme stock GameStop also appeared to weigh on memecoins, with Dogecoin losing -8.6% and Shiba Inu decreasing -6.7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72 or Greed. 

Bitcoin briefly topped the A$105.4K/US$70K mark earlier today, but is yet to convincingly break out above. We’ve been consolidating in this region since March, albeit with some dips below A$90K/US$60K. Bitfinex analysts suggest that long-term holders’ selling was a key reason for Bitcoin’s retreat from all-time highs, but on-chain data suggests these holders have begun to reaccumulate. The amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges has fallen roughly 10% this year to historically low levels. Unfortunately, Bitcoin’s active addresses are also at five-year lows. Bitcoin finishes the week flat at A$102,495 (US$69,037), while Ethereum lost 2.8% to trade around A$5,582 (US$3,772). Most other coins eased back a little: Solana fell 5%, XRP (-2%), Dogecoin (-6%), Cardano (-2%) and Shiba Inu (-3.5%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 73 or Greed.

The past week was arguably one of the most historic for crypto in a decade, with SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci summing it up as “a big year this week in crypto.” Pro-crypto legislation passed with bipartisan support in the US House of Representatives, the Ethereum ETF was approved, and Donald Trump promised to defend crypto from critic Elizabeth Warren and her “goons.” It suggests a sea change in crypto’s political fortunes and is a potential catalyst for the second stage of the bull run. Bitcoin topped the A$106K (US$70.6K) mark earlier today but at the time of writing the price was flat on seven days ago to trade at A$104,210 (US$69.5K). Ethereum gained 6.9% over the past week and is trading around A$5,839 (US$3,883). The ETF approval appears to have taken some of the gloss off of ETH killer Solana which pulled back 8.4%, and ETH competitor Cardano (-6.1%), XRP was flat, Dogecoin gained 2.5%, and Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed. 

Crypto markets surged this morning after reports the SEC may actually approve an Ether ETF this week. At the time of writing Bitcoin was up 13% for the week to A$106,790 (US$70.5K) and Ethereum was up 24% to A$5,535 (US$3,661) — however markets were rising fast. Everything else was up including Solana (26%), XRP (6%), Dogecoin (9.6%), Cardano (14%) and Shiba Inu (9.1%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76 or Greed.

It was a choppy week for Bitcoin, with the Orange Coin trading between A$97.2K (USD$64K) and A$91.4K (US$60K), with sudden lurches either way. FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich warns that Bitcoin could see a panic sell-off if it closes under A$90.8K (the psychological US$60K mark) in the coming days, with traders looking for a break above A$98.3K (US$65K) to signal bullish conditions have returned. All eyes will be on the release of April’s US inflation data this week, with analyst Seth saying “Jerome Powell likely pump our bags” if inflation trends lower. Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.1% to trade around A$94,765 (US$62,752), while Ethereum lost another 4.5% to hit A$4,443 (US$2,942) amid waves of negativity from rivals and expectations of an ETF denial. Solana lost 4.7%, XRP (-7.1%), Dogecoin (-5.6%), Cardano (-4.2%) and Shiba Inu (-3.5%) The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 57 or Greed.

After a dismal few days in which Bitcoin plunged to A$87.5K (US$56.8K) as flows to the Bitcoin ETFs dried up and inflation fears surged, everything took a sharp turn for the better on Saturday. Bitcoin rose 5% off the back of cooler-than-expected US jobs numbers, easing inflation and interest rate fears. Bitcoin has just notched up one billion transactions, the 200-day moving average has just hit a new all-time high, and the ETFs broke a long streak of outflows with hundreds of millions added on Friday. Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes believes we’ve seen the local bottom, and he predicts range-bound price action between US$60K and US$70K (A$90K to A$106K) until August. Bitcoin finishes the week relatively flat at A$95,182 (US$63.5K), while Ethereum lost 3.9% over the week to trade around A$4,620 (US$3,081). Solana gained 13.1%, XRP was up 5.1%, Dogecoin (9.4%), Cardano and Shiba Inu were flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 or Greed.