Market update
It’s fair to say things aren’t going exactly to plan with the Bitcoin ETFs, with massive outflows from Grayscale sucking much of the fun out of the launch. Bitcoin finishes the week down 6.7% to trade around A$60,430 (US$39.74K), while Ethereum lost 8% and is trading around A$3,529 (US$2,317). Almost everything else was down: Solana (-11%), XRP (-8%) and Cardano (-9%), however, Dogecoin only lost 1% on hopium that the new ‘Xpayments’ account on X might see DOGE added as a payment method. A retracement in the lead-up to the halving is normal according to Rektcapital, who points out that at the same stage in the cycle in 2016 Bitcoin had lost 16%, and in 2020 it was 63%. In traditional markets, the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high, although there are concerns that interest rate cuts won’t come as quickly as hoped. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 55, or Greed.
It’s been a historic week, with the launch of multiple Bitcoin ETFs in the US marking a “potential paradigm shift in the global perception and use of digital assets,” according to Morgan Stanley. However, the expected billions have failed to flow in yet, with the SEC’s bungled approval process, investors fleeing Grayscale’s GBTC and delayed and incomplete TradFi reporting all playing a role. The Bitcoin price climbed to around A$73,000 (US$48.7K) on the 11th and then fell to under A$63K (US$41.9K) on the weekend, with Google searches for “why is Bitcoin dropping” increasing 1,100%. Bitcoin finished the week down 9.1% to trade at A$63,921 (US$42.7K), while Ethereum gained 8% to trade at A$3,771 (US$2,515). Solana fell 2%, XRP and Dogecoin were both flat, and Cardano lost 2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has retreated to 52 or Neutral for the first time since October.
Bitcoin volatility increased this week ahead of the January 10 deadline in the US for a decision on the Bitcoin ETFs. The price fell below A$63K ($42K) on a report that the ETF would be denied and then surged again today on renewed confidence to top A$70K (US$47K). Alex Thorn, head of research for Galaxy, says that after ETF approvals, such sharp price action could become a thing of the past: “Volatility will likely dampen, along with inter-crypto cyclicality given AUM stickiness.” The price surge saw Bitcoin’s market cap once again overtake Facebook‘s. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 5% on the same time last week to trade at A$69,763 (US$47,100). Ethereum was flat this week and is trading around A$3,480 (US$2,328). Solana fell 11%, XRP lost 9%, Cardano was down 14%, and Dogecoin retreated 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76 (+5) or Greed.
Welcome to 2024, which is widely expected to see falling interest rates, rising stock prices and Bitcoin ETF approvals that change crypto forever. Then again, all of last year’s predictions about a looming recession and a stock market crash turned out to be wrong, so who knows what will really happen? The Nasdaq gained 43% in 2023 thanks to the AI boom, and the S&P 500 was up 24%. Like crypto, most of the significant gains happened from October onward, which also saw the ASX 200 flip from underwater to finish with a 7.8% gain. Bitcoin started 2023 at A$24,350 (US$16,530) and finished at A$62,335 (US$42,734), which equates to a 155% return (or 157% in US dollars due to currency fluctuations). But it was soundly beaten by more than a dozen crypto-related stocks, including Marathon (up 591%), Coinbase (418%), Riot (359%) and MicroStrategy (336%). Bitcoin finished the week up 3% to trade around A$65,945 (US$43,508), while Ethereum gained 2.2% to trade around A$3,430 (US$2,369). After huge recent gains, Solana fell 9% this week, XRP lost 2.2%, Cardano was flat, and Dogecoin lost 3.3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 or Greed.
We’re just one month before the final deadline for Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF application. It’s the expected trigger for approval of up to a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs, a mere 125 months after the Winklevoss twins submitted the first application. To celebrate, the Bitcoin price reversed an entire week’s worth of gains by falling 6.5% in 20 minutes yesterday. But sentiment is so high the reversal was seen by many as bullish — the expected correction after two months of climbing prices. “Corrections shake out ‘weak hands’ and leverage, allowing for a stronger foundation for eventual moves higher,” tweeted analyst Will Clemente. Bitcoin finishes the week down 1% (at the time of writing) to trade around A$63,770 (US$41,517), while Ethereum was flat at A$3,425 (US$2,228). XRP was also flat, but Cardano surged 37%, Avalanche leapt 76.5%, and Dogecoin was up 5.9%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 67 or Greed.
Bitcoin sailed through the US$40K (A$60.4K) mark yesterday and then broke the US$42K (A$63.45K) mark today thanks to ever-growing confidence about an early January approval of a Bitcoin ETF. There is the risk of a big fall of course, if those expectations are not met. Bitcoin finished the week up 12% to trade around A$63,420 (US$41,816), while Ethereum gained 10% to trade around A$3,395 (US$2,238) at the time of writing. Bitcoin is now at levels last seen in April 2022, before the Terra collapse, and the BTC market cap has overtaken Berkshire Hathaway’s (value investing icon Charlie Munger who passed away this week). Apart from anticipation over the ETF, the apparent peak of interest rates in the US has reportedly been met with a “dash for trash“, with gold, small caps and speculative tech stocks benefiting along with crypto. US crypto stocks surged on Monday, and Coinbase, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms are closing in on astonishing 300% gains for the year. Elsewhere, XRP was up 3%, Solana gained 11%, Cardano 7% and Dogecoin 14%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.
Bitcoin surged to a new high for the year above A$58,000 (US$38.2K) on Friday, and markets have just seen the first 10-day streak of positive stablecoin growth since February, indicating as analyst Dogetoshi noted that “Money is once again reentering the system.” The market has pulled back since, with Santiment reporting last night that two-thirds of the top 100 coins have retraced and “several have lost a large chunk of their November profits.” Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at $56,575 (US$37,260), while Ethereum was flat at $3,082 (US$2,029). XRP lost 1% for the week, Solana (-2%), and Cardano (-1%), while Dogecoin was flat. Despite the crypto market wobbles, the broader picture is looking positive, with Coinbase stock surging to its highest level since early 2022 and institutional crypto funds adding US$346 million (A$524M) of inflows, the highest amount since late 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 66 or Greed.
The possibility of up to US$100 billion (A$152B) flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs has propelled the price upwards by 25% in the past month. This week BTC has been threatening to break through the US$38K (A$57.9K) mark – a price it hasn’t touched since April last year. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.8% to trade around A$57,500 (US$37,500), while Ethereum is down 1.5% to trade at A$3,100 (US$2,027). XRP lost 7%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano rose 9% (interestingly, both were named securities once again in the SEC’s new case against Kraken), and Dogecoin was up 5%. Further down the list, Synthetix rose by a third. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 69 or Greed.
After surging to almost A$59,000 (US$37.9K) this week, Bitcoin is currently taking a bit of a breather and finishes the week up 1% trade around A$56,920 (US$36.4K). Ethereum got a big boost from BlackRock’s ETF filing and finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$3,198 (US$2,044), above the psychological US$2K mark. XRP pulled back by 9%, Solana jumped another 22%, Cardano lost 5%, while Dogecoin was flat. The overall crypto market cap is at A$2.21 trillion (US$1.4T) and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72.
We’re back! That’s the prevailing sentiment thanks to Bitcoin’s 29% gain in “Uptober” and double-digit price gains for some altcoins this week. Bitcoin has more than doubled in price so far this year, The Simpsons just did another crypto episode, and the prospects for a Santa Claus rally look enticing. As ever, things could fall apart quickly, with JP Morgan chair Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning that geopolitical conflicts could result in a global recession. Here in Australia, analysts now expect a possible Cup Day rate hike to be followed in short order by another rise. Bitcoin finished the week up 1.8% to trade around A$54,000 (US$35.1K), while Ethereum gained 4% on seven days ago to trade around A$2,919 (US$1,900). There’s a mini-altseason going on with Ripple up 20%, Solana gaining 16%, Cardano increasing 19% and Dogecoin up 8%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed which is the highest level since the all-time high in November 2021.
Crypto has decoupled from stocks in the short term, with a tech stock wipeout midweek, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting correction territory of 10% down from recent highs (though both recovered a bit on Monday). Bitcoin appears to have found a new home around the $A54K/US$34K mark and finishes the week up 3.5% to trade at A$54,350 (US$34,480). Ethereum was up 2.7% on seven days ago to trade around $2,853 (US$1,810). XRP gained 5.35%, Solana (10.1%), Cardano (9.3%) and Dogecoin (4.5%). Searches for “Buy Bitcoin” surged 826% in the UK in the past week, and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously sold his BTC stack in 2022, now regrets the move, saying: “I don’t own any Bitcoin but I should.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 68, or Greed.