Market update
Bitcoin sailed through the US$40K (A$60.4K) mark yesterday and then broke the US$42K (A$63.45K) mark today thanks to ever-growing confidence about an early January approval of a Bitcoin ETF. There is the risk of a big fall of course, if those expectations are not met. Bitcoin finished the week up 12% to trade around A$63,420 (US$41,816), while Ethereum gained 10% to trade around A$3,395 (US$2,238) at the time of writing. Bitcoin is now at levels last seen in April 2022, before the Terra collapse, and the BTC market cap has overtaken Berkshire Hathaway’s (value investing icon Charlie Munger who passed away this week). Apart from anticipation over the ETF, the apparent peak of interest rates in the US has reportedly been met with a “dash for trash“, with gold, small caps and speculative tech stocks benefiting along with crypto. US crypto stocks surged on Monday, and Coinbase, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms are closing in on astonishing 300% gains for the year. Elsewhere, XRP was up 3%, Solana gained 11%, Cardano 7% and Dogecoin 14%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.
Bitcoin surged to a new high for the year above A$58,000 (US$38.2K) on Friday, and markets have just seen the first 10-day streak of positive stablecoin growth since February, indicating as analyst Dogetoshi noted that “Money is once again reentering the system.” The market has pulled back since, with Santiment reporting last night that two-thirds of the top 100 coins have retraced and “several have lost a large chunk of their November profits.” Bitcoin finished the week down 1% at $56,575 (US$37,260), while Ethereum was flat at $3,082 (US$2,029). XRP lost 1% for the week, Solana (-2%), and Cardano (-1%), while Dogecoin was flat. Despite the crypto market wobbles, the broader picture is looking positive, with Coinbase stock surging to its highest level since early 2022 and institutional crypto funds adding US$346 million (A$524M) of inflows, the highest amount since late 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 66 or Greed.
The possibility of up to US$100 billion (A$152B) flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs has propelled the price upwards by 25% in the past month. This week BTC has been threatening to break through the US$38K (A$57.9K) mark – a price it hasn’t touched since April last year. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.8% to trade around A$57,500 (US$37,500), while Ethereum is down 1.5% to trade at A$3,100 (US$2,027). XRP lost 7%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano rose 9% (interestingly, both were named securities once again in the SEC’s new case against Kraken), and Dogecoin was up 5%. Further down the list, Synthetix rose by a third. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 69 or Greed.
After surging to almost A$59,000 (US$37.9K) this week, Bitcoin is currently taking a bit of a breather and finishes the week up 1% trade around A$56,920 (US$36.4K). Ethereum got a big boost from BlackRock’s ETF filing and finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$3,198 (US$2,044), above the psychological US$2K mark. XRP pulled back by 9%, Solana jumped another 22%, Cardano lost 5%, while Dogecoin was flat. The overall crypto market cap is at A$2.21 trillion (US$1.4T) and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72.
We’re back! That’s the prevailing sentiment thanks to Bitcoin’s 29% gain in “Uptober” and double-digit price gains for some altcoins this week. Bitcoin has more than doubled in price so far this year, The Simpsons just did another crypto episode, and the prospects for a Santa Claus rally look enticing. As ever, things could fall apart quickly, with JP Morgan chair Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning that geopolitical conflicts could result in a global recession. Here in Australia, analysts now expect a possible Cup Day rate hike to be followed in short order by another rise. Bitcoin finished the week up 1.8% to trade around A$54,000 (US$35.1K), while Ethereum gained 4% on seven days ago to trade around A$2,919 (US$1,900). There’s a mini-altseason going on with Ripple up 20%, Solana gaining 16%, Cardano increasing 19% and Dogecoin up 8%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed which is the highest level since the all-time high in November 2021.
Crypto has decoupled from stocks in the short term, with a tech stock wipeout midweek, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting correction territory of 10% down from recent highs (though both recovered a bit on Monday). Bitcoin appears to have found a new home around the $A54K/US$34K mark and finishes the week up 3.5% to trade at A$54,350 (US$34,480). Ethereum was up 2.7% on seven days ago to trade around $2,853 (US$1,810). XRP gained 5.35%, Solana (10.1%), Cardano (9.3%) and Dogecoin (4.5%). Searches for “Buy Bitcoin” surged 826% in the UK in the past week, and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously sold his BTC stack in 2022, now regrets the move, saying: “I don’t own any Bitcoin but I should.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 68, or Greed.
‘Uptober’ is shaping up as one for the history books, with the odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval growing by the minute. The Bitcoin price grew steadily over the week and suddenly spiked from US$32K to US$34K (A$50.5K to A$53.7K) in a few minutes this morning. Crypto market volumes have grown 50% over the past day, although they’re still at relative lows equivalent to mid-2019. Public Bitcoin ETF funds saw US$43M (A$68M) of inflows today, equating to around 10% of the year-to-date figure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands for A$51,755 (US$32,780), up 18% for the week, while Ethereum had gained 11% to trade around A$2,790 (US$1,760). Bitcoin dominance is at a two-year high, which old hands will tell you can be a good time to invest in altcoins, which tend to surge on delay after a rally draws in new participants. Some altcoins are already starting to outperform, with Solana gaining 33% and Chainlink up 39.5% this week. Ripple gained 10%, Cardano was up 12%, and Dogecoin increased 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 53, or Neutral, but expect that to change shortly.
The Bitcoin price surged 10% and nudged US$30K overnight on fake news of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval and fell quickly back to earth when the news was revealed to be the fantasy of a social media intern. The focus on a Bitcoin ETF approval has still been good for Bitcoin, which finishes the week up 2.9% to trade around US$28,450. Ethereum was flat and finishes at US$1,590. Ether is currently trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin and the lowest point since the shift to proof of stake. Elsewhere XRP lost 1.4%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano was flat, and Dogecoin increased 1.8%. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve show the policymakers agreed to maintain high-interest rates for an extended period. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47 or Neutral.
With the excitement over the launch of Ether Futures ETFs lasting less than 24 hours after a short-lived spike, markets have continued their familiar boring grind. Bitcoin finished the week where it began at A$43,100 (US$27,600), but Ethereum lost 5.5%, presumably due to the somewhat disappointing volumes of the futures ETFs and is now trading around A$2,461 (US$1,580). XRP lost 2%, Solana fell 4%, Cardano lost 3%, and Dogecoin was down 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed index remains stuck at 50, or Neutral.
Markets appeared to turn a corner the very minute ‘Uptober’ began, with anticipation over the expected launch of Ether Futures ETFs in the US sending Bitcoin and Ethereum surging. The institutions-friendly ETF news saw Ether finish the week up 1.1% to trade around A$2,611 (US$1,661), and Bitcoin was up 1.2% on seven days ago to trade around A$43,233 (US$27,516). Yesterday Bitcoin was actually trading above the US$28K mark for the first time since August 17. Other coins gained too, including Solana which surged 16.1% and Cardano (up 2%) but others fell after the pump such as XRP which was down 2% and Dogecoin (down 1.5%). In the US, the regular game of chicken that legislators play over raising the debt ceiling ended with a midnight deal that avoided a US Government shutdown on October 1. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.
After a sharp drop to A$38,890 (US$25K) this time last week, Bitcoin has recovered 6% to trade around A$41,580 (US$26,740), and Ethereum is up 5% to trade at A$2,530 (US$1,630). It was a sea of green elsewhere, with gains for XRP (6%), Cardano (4%), Dogecoin (2%) and Polkadot (2%). Telegram messaging app TON surged 48% and is now in the top 10 coins according to Coinmarketcap after the app integrated TON’s self-custodial crypto wallet for its 800 million users. The Fear and Greed Index improved to 46, which is still Fear.