Market update
‘Uptober’ is shaping up as one for the history books, with the odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval growing by the minute. The Bitcoin price grew steadily over the week and suddenly spiked from US$32K to US$34K (A$50.5K to A$53.7K) in a few minutes this morning. Crypto market volumes have grown 50% over the past day, although they’re still at relative lows equivalent to mid-2019. Public Bitcoin ETF funds saw US$43M (A$68M) of inflows today, equating to around 10% of the year-to-date figure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands for A$51,755 (US$32,780), up 18% for the week, while Ethereum had gained 11% to trade around A$2,790 (US$1,760). Bitcoin dominance is at a two-year high, which old hands will tell you can be a good time to invest in altcoins, which tend to surge on delay after a rally draws in new participants. Some altcoins are already starting to outperform, with Solana gaining 33% and Chainlink up 39.5% this week. Ripple gained 10%, Cardano was up 12%, and Dogecoin increased 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 53, or Neutral, but expect that to change shortly.
The Bitcoin price surged 10% and nudged US$30K overnight on fake news of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval and fell quickly back to earth when the news was revealed to be the fantasy of a social media intern. The focus on a Bitcoin ETF approval has still been good for Bitcoin, which finishes the week up 2.9% to trade around US$28,450. Ethereum was flat and finishes at US$1,590. Ether is currently trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin and the lowest point since the shift to proof of stake. Elsewhere XRP lost 1.4%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano was flat, and Dogecoin increased 1.8%. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve show the policymakers agreed to maintain high-interest rates for an extended period. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47 or Neutral.
With the excitement over the launch of Ether Futures ETFs lasting less than 24 hours after a short-lived spike, markets have continued their familiar boring grind. Bitcoin finished the week where it began at A$43,100 (US$27,600), but Ethereum lost 5.5%, presumably due to the somewhat disappointing volumes of the futures ETFs and is now trading around A$2,461 (US$1,580). XRP lost 2%, Solana fell 4%, Cardano lost 3%, and Dogecoin was down 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed index remains stuck at 50, or Neutral.
Markets appeared to turn a corner the very minute ‘Uptober’ began, with anticipation over the expected launch of Ether Futures ETFs in the US sending Bitcoin and Ethereum surging. The institutions-friendly ETF news saw Ether finish the week up 1.1% to trade around A$2,611 (US$1,661), and Bitcoin was up 1.2% on seven days ago to trade around A$43,233 (US$27,516). Yesterday Bitcoin was actually trading above the US$28K mark for the first time since August 17. Other coins gained too, including Solana which surged 16.1% and Cardano (up 2%) but others fell after the pump such as XRP which was down 2% and Dogecoin (down 1.5%). In the US, the regular game of chicken that legislators play over raising the debt ceiling ended with a midnight deal that avoided a US Government shutdown on October 1. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.
After a sharp drop to A$38,890 (US$25K) this time last week, Bitcoin has recovered 6% to trade around A$41,580 (US$26,740), and Ethereum is up 5% to trade at A$2,530 (US$1,630). It was a sea of green elsewhere, with gains for XRP (6%), Cardano (4%), Dogecoin (2%) and Polkadot (2%). Telegram messaging app TON surged 48% and is now in the top 10 coins according to Coinmarketcap after the app integrated TON’s self-custodial crypto wallet for its 800 million users. The Fear and Greed Index improved to 46, which is still Fear.
September continues its reputation as “Downtember”, with the markets down again this week Looming “death crosses” for Ethereum and Bitcoin sparked another debate over whether it was a portent of doom, or whether charting was merely astrology for men. Bitcoin finishes the week down 3% at A$39,128 (US$25,119), while Ethereum dropped 5% to A$2,409 (US$1,547). Both are about 13-15% down on a month ago. XRP lost 7%, Cardano fell 6%, Dogecoin (-4%) and Solana fell 9% on fears of an FTX selloff. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is steady at 40, or Fear.
Despite a short-lived sugar rush from Grayscale’s court victory against the Securities and Exchange Commission, crypto markets remain in a holding pattern and are looking for a direction. Bitcoin finishes the week at A$40,035 (US$25,965), which is essentially the same as seven days ago. Ethereum also treads water this week and ends up at A$2,519 (US$1,640). XRP (-3%), Cardano (-4%), Dogecoin (1.2%) and Solana (-5%) also barely moved. The Fear and Greed Index is at 40 or Fear.
Crypto markets traded sideways again this week, with Bitcoin flat on seven days ago and trading around A$40,550 (US$26,025). Ethereum lost 1.3% and finished the week at A$2,570 (US$1,650). XRP and Cardano were flat, Dogecoin was up 1.4%, while Solana fell 3%. There is some good news, with Bloomberg analysts arguing the recent downtrend in Bitcoin prices is weakening, and the liquidations are “largely behind us” based on a decline in open interest. “As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term,” their report stated. However, with the war on crypto in full swing and the US Fed boss Jereme Powell indicating inflation is still too high and that “we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate” it’s anyone’s guess where markets will go next. Analyst Michael van de Poppe says that nearing 500 days, we’re in “the longest bear market in history for Bitcoin”. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 39 or Fear.
Bitcoin’s months-long sideways action ended with a bang late last week when the price dropped about 8% in ten minutes on Friday. Around US$2.5 billion of open interest in derivatives markets was cleared out in a few hours. The likely catalyst was some reheated old news about SpaceX writing down its BTC holdings and selling, but there are also fears over the Chinese economy, speculation about potential US interest rate rises, and the possible price impact of a rise in government bond yields. Bitcoin finishes the week down 11% to trade at US$26.1K, while Ethereum fared slightly better with a 10% drop to US$1,670. Everything else lost ground significantly, including XRP (-17%), Cardano (-9%), Dogecoin (-16%) and Solana (-16%). After a few months at Neutral, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 38, or Fear.
Back in the day, the merest rumour of a PayPal stablecoin would have ushered in a mini bull run, but in this era of SEC-induced uncertainty, it barely nudged the dial. Glassnode analyst Checkmate notes the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is just 2.9% — the third lowest volatility since 2015. Traders are so bored they’re pumping money into a meme coin called HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. Macro trends could be bad for Bitcoin, however, with Michael ‘The Big Short’ Burry opening his biggest leveraged short positions since his famous 2008 recession prediction. Bitcoin finishes the week flat at $45,410 (US$29,437), while Ethereum gained 1% to trade at $2,845 (US$1,844). Cardano was flat, while Ripple (1.6%), and Dogecoin (1.8%) moved a little, and Solana increased 9.4%. Tether has been trading a fraction below its $1 US peg for a few weeks now, which is slightly concerning. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 50 or neutral.
It was all quiet on the crypto front again this week, with no big moves. Bitcoin’s total transfer volume in USD has dropped to a three-year low, and its one-month volatility is at 22.9% (which is less than half the one-year volatility of 49.1%). Bitcoin has been mostly trading between A$43K to A$45K (just under US$30K) which is the same ballpark it’s been in since March. Bitcoin finishes the week flat on seven days ago at $44,420 (US$29,140), while Ethereum is down 1.7% to trade at A$2,780 (US$1,825). Euphoria over XRP’s court victory has dissipated, with the token falling 11.2%, Dogecoin losing 5.8%, Cardano (-5.8%) and Solana (-3.1%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at 49 or Neutral. Barring a major collapse or the passing of crypto legislation in the US, the next big market-moving event could be the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF or an Ethereum Futures ETF which some pundits are tipping for October.
