In markets
The world is in flames, trillions have been erased from stock markets, petrol prices are through the roof… and somehow Bitcoin is up almost 25% from the lows.
It’s a welcome change after a year in which everything seemed to be breaking all-time highs except for crypto. Bitcoin saw an unbroken week of daily gains and is up 8.3% this week to trade around A$105,185 (US$74,312), while Ethereum raced ahead of the top ten, gaining 16.4% to trade around A$3,300 (US$2,331).
Oil futures have been volatile amid conflicting reports around how definitive Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is. The US has bombed Kharg Island’s defences – a facility that accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports – and threatened to seize it in a game of tit for tat with unpredictable consequences. Until the oil supply situation is resolved, financial volatility seems set to continue.
The war has forced the cancellation of TOKEN2049 in Dubai at the end of April. Here in Australia, pundits have tipped that the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates. XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin each gained between 11% and 13%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 28, which is still in fear territory, but it’s finally heading in the right direction.
From the OTC desk
FOMC Showdown: Will Hawkish Tone Derail the Crypto Rally?
An FOMC meeting is scheduled for Thursday morning. No rate cut is expected at this meeting, but markets will closely scrutinise any shifts in the Committee’s tone, particularly amid escalating Middle East tensions and surging energy prices. Since the conflict intensified, CME Fed funds futures have dramatically repriced: expectations now point to just a 25-bps rate cut by December 2026, down sharply from an average of 56 bps anticipated only a month ago. With cryptocurrencies gaining strong momentum in recent weeks, the key question is whether the FOMC outcome will cool investor sentiment or supercharge the ongoing rally, as market participants focus on the conference by Chairman Powell.
Dollar’s Surge Meets Crypto Tailwinds
A major development this year has been the robust USD rally, with the DXY index climbing from a February low around 95.5 to trade near 100 amid a flight to safety driven by Middle East geopolitical risks. Traditionally, a strengthening dollar pressures crypto markets, but unique positive catalysts are emerging. Elon Musk recently shared details and responded to speculation about X Money’s payment system on X, fuelling excitement over potential trades and cryptocurrency integration. Adding to the narrative, Stanley Druckenmiller separately commented that the U.S. dollar may not remain the world’s reserve currency in 50 years, suggesting bitcoin or another cryptocurrency could emerge as a viable replacement. These idiosyncratic factors are helping crypto buck the usual inverse relationship with the dollar.
OTC desk activity
- Starting to see buyers back in the market, especially for Bitcoin, but seeing some alts selling amidst the rally
- Sharp shift in activity towards on-ramp flows for stablecoins
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEDT)
- Tuesday, Mar 17 2026 – 12:00 PM – SG Balance of Trade Feb (Consensus $9.5B).
- Tuesday, Mar 17 2026 – 02:30 PM – AU RBA Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 4.1%).
- Wednesday, Mar 18 2026 – 10:50 AM – JP Balance of Trade Feb (Consensus ¥-520.0B).
- Wednesday, Mar 18 2026 – 09:00 PM – EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Final Feb (Consensus 2.4%).
- Thursday, Mar 19 2026 – 05:00 AM – US Fed Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 3.75%).
- Thursday, Mar 19 2026 – 11:30 AM – AU Unemployment Rate Feb (Consensus 4.1%).
- Thursday, Mar 19 2026 – 02:00 PM – JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 0.75%).
- Friday, Mar 20 2026 – 12:15 AM – EA ECB Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 2.15%).
- Friday, Mar 20 2026 – 01:30 PM – SG Unemployment Rate Final Q4 (Consensus 2.0%).
- Friday, Mar 20 2026 – 09:00 PM – EA Balance of Trade Jan (Consensus €11.5B).
- Monday, Mar 23 2026 – 04:00 PM – SG Inflation Rate YoY Feb (Consensus 1.2%)
In headlines
Ether staking ETF’s strong debut
BlackRock’s Ethereum staking ETF (ETHB) saw US$45 million (A$64M) in inflows in its first two trading days, adding to its US$104 million (A$147M) seed investment. The spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a third week of gains, taking in US$767 million (A$1.1B), while the Ether ETFs took in US$161 million (A$228M), and the XRP ETFs nabbed US$28 million (A$39.6M). Strategy bought another 22,337 bitcoin for US$1.57 billion (A$2.2B) last week.
Australia’s crypto rules move forward
The Senate Economics Legislation Committee published a report this week endorsing the proposed Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025. The legislation would integrate crypto platforms into the existing Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) framework. If the bill becomes law platforms will have six months to get an AFSL.
Ripple buys company for AFSL
Ripple is in the process of acquiring BC Payments Australia to gain access to the company’s AFSL. The deal is set to close on April 1, according to APAC Managing Director, Fiona Murray. Murray said, “Australia is a key market for Ripple,” and that an AFSL would strengthen the company’s ability to scale its payments business nationwide. Ripple Labs also reportedly plans to buy back up to US$750 million (A$1.06B) in private shares from investors and employees in a program that would give the company a valuation of US$50 billion (A$70.7B).
Clarity Act still stalled
US crypto market structure legislation, The Clarity Act, isn’t expected to hit the Senate until at least April, according to Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Thune said the Senate would prioritise the citizenship bill, the SAVE America Act, first, which is due for a vote this week. “Market structure is a bill that’s, I’m hoping, going to come out of the Banking Committee soon, probably not before, I would say, the April time period,” he said. Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone says the banks and crypto firms are getting close to a deal that would ban yield on stablecoin deposits but allow transaction-based rewards. “I feel very confident we can reach a resolution in the next week,” Carbone said.
Great reason to contact the OTC desk instead
A user managed to swap US$50.4 million (A$71.3M) via aggregator CowSwap for just 327 Aave tokens worth US$36,000 (A$51K). The pool had very low liquidity, and a MEV bot took out a flash loan to buy up the available Aave and made off with US$9.9 million (A$14M) in profit. The trade was a bit of a head-scratcher, as the wallet was funded from Binance, which offers trading in Aave. The user also had to click past a warning about a significant loss. Cow DAO pointed out no DEX or DEX aggregator could have filled a $50M order at anywhere near a reasonable price, but admitted the UX needed to be fixed, while Aave will now block any swap with a price impact greater than 25%.
Less that 1% of Aussie crypto txs are illicit
A report from TRM Labs found that less than 1% of Australia’s total on-chain crypto activity is linked to illicit counterparties. Most of that was to sanctioned addresses, while some went to darknet marketplaces and to fraud. The analysis of trades between March 2025 and February 2026 found around US$50 billion (A$70.7B) in total on-chain transaction volume, with centralised exchanges and DeFi platforms seeing US$15 billion (A$21.2B) of incoming value. Australia ranked 20th out of 95 countries analysed for pure transaction volume. Comparing this to the traditional fiat system is difficult, but the UN Office on Drugs and Crime has estimated that roughly 2-5% of global GDP is laundered each year.
Mastercard’s global crypto partner program
Mastercard has launched a global crypto partner program bringing together 85 companies to collaborate on blockchain-based payments and settlement systems. Binance, Circle, Ripple, PayPal, Polygon, Solana, and MoonPay are among those involved, with the program focused on use cases such as cross-border money movement, settlements, and commercial payments.
CFTC and SEC join forces
The US SEC and CFTC have signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on regulation, including crypto regulation and new digital asset products. The MOU means they’ll have regular meetings to ensure they’re on the same page, share data and training, and coordinate enforcement. Meanwhile, the CFTC has published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking about its plans to adopt new rules to clean up prediction markets.
Asia crypto news
South Korea’s tax authority has allocated US$2 million (A$2.8M) to build an AI platform that combs through reams of crypto-trading data looking for users who cheated on their taxes. The move comes ahead of the country beginning to tax crypto investment gains in 2027 at 22% on profits exceeding $1,700. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is expected to issue the first stablecoin licenses to HSBC and Standard Chartered, according to the South China Morning Post.
Bits and pieces
Bloomberg reported that AI agents made US$24 million (A$34M) in payments over the past month; however, a16z says the figure was actually closer to US$3 million ($4.2M) over the same period, or US$1.6 million (A$2.3M) if you filter out wash trades. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller believes stablecoins will eventually underpin much of the global payments system. “I assume our whole payment systems will be stablecoins in 10 or 15 years – efficient, quicker, cheaper,” he said. Mizuho analysts this week said that adjusted volume for USDC stood at 64% market share year to date, surpassing long-time stablecoin king USDT.
The Moonshot Dispatch
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Until next week, happy trading!
