Market update

We’re back! That’s the prevailing sentiment thanks to Bitcoin’s 29% gain in “Uptober” and double-digit price gains for some altcoins this week. Bitcoin has more than doubled in price so far this year, The Simpsons just did another crypto episode, and the prospects for a Santa Claus rally look enticing. As ever, things could fall apart quickly, with JP Morgan chair Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning that geopolitical conflicts could result in a global recession. Here in Australia, analysts now expect a possible Cup Day rate hike to be followed in short order by another rise. Bitcoin finished the week up 1.8% to trade around A$54,000 (US$35.1K), while Ethereum gained 4% on seven days ago to trade around A$2,919 (US$1,900). There’s a mini-altseason going on with Ripple up 20%, Solana gaining 16%, Cardano increasing 19% and Dogecoin up 8%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed which is the highest level since the all-time high in November 2021.

Crypto has decoupled from stocks in the short term, with a tech stock wipeout midweek, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting correction territory of 10% down from recent highs (though both recovered a bit on Monday). Bitcoin appears to have found a new home around the $A54K/US$34K mark and finishes the week up 3.5% to trade at A$54,350 (US$34,480). Ethereum was up 2.7% on seven days ago to trade around $2,853 (US$1,810). XRP gained 5.35%, Solana (10.1%), Cardano (9.3%) and Dogecoin (4.5%). Searches for “Buy Bitcoin” surged 826% in the UK in the past week, and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously sold his BTC stack in 2022, now regrets the move, saying: “I don’t own any Bitcoin but I should.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 68, or Greed.

‘Uptober’ is shaping up as one for the history books, with the odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval growing by the minute. The Bitcoin price grew steadily over the week and suddenly spiked from US$32K to US$34K (A$50.5K to A$53.7K) in a few minutes this morning. Crypto market volumes have grown 50% over the past day, although they’re still at relative lows equivalent to mid-2019. Public Bitcoin ETF funds saw US$43M (A$68M) of inflows today, equating to around 10% of the year-to-date figure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands for A$51,755 (US$32,780), up 18% for the week, while Ethereum had gained 11% to trade around A$2,790 (US$1,760). Bitcoin dominance is at a two-year high, which old hands will tell you can be a good time to invest in altcoins, which tend to surge on delay after a rally draws in new participants. Some altcoins are already starting to outperform, with Solana gaining 33% and Chainlink up 39.5% this week. Ripple gained 10%, Cardano was up 12%, and Dogecoin increased 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 53, or Neutral, but expect that to change shortly.

The Bitcoin price surged 10% and nudged US$30K overnight on fake news of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval and fell quickly back to earth when the news was revealed to be the fantasy of a social media intern. The focus on a Bitcoin ETF approval has still been good for Bitcoin, which finishes the week up 2.9% to trade around US$28,450. Ethereum was flat and finishes at US$1,590. Ether is currently trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin and the lowest point since the shift to proof of stake. Elsewhere XRP lost 1.4%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano was flat, and Dogecoin increased 1.8%. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve show the policymakers agreed to maintain high-interest rates for an extended period. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47 or Neutral.

With the excitement over the launch of Ether Futures ETFs lasting less than 24 hours after a short-lived spike, markets have continued their familiar boring grind. Bitcoin finished the week where it began at A$43,100 (US$27,600), but Ethereum lost 5.5%, presumably due to the somewhat disappointing volumes of the futures ETFs and is now trading around A$2,461 (US$1,580). XRP lost 2%, Solana fell 4%, Cardano lost 3%, and Dogecoin was down 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed index remains stuck at 50, or Neutral.

Markets appeared to turn a corner the very minute ‘Uptober’ began, with anticipation over the expected launch of Ether Futures ETFs in the US sending Bitcoin and Ethereum surging. The institutions-friendly ETF news saw Ether finish the week up 1.1% to trade around A$2,611 (US$1,661), and Bitcoin was up 1.2% on seven days ago to trade around A$43,233 (US$27,516). Yesterday Bitcoin was actually trading above the US$28K mark for the first time since August 17. Other coins gained too, including Solana which surged 16.1% and Cardano (up 2%) but others fell after the pump such as XRP which was down 2% and Dogecoin (down 1.5%). In the US, the regular game of chicken that legislators play over raising the debt ceiling ended with a midnight deal that avoided a US Government shutdown on October 1. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 50, or Neutral.