Market update
Despite Bitcoin’s 30 days volatility hitting historic lows, a wave of volatility overnight saw around A$438M (US$290 million) in liquidations across the market. The US Fed took a hawkish tone and kept interest rates on hold at 5.5%, so the combined effects of inflation, high interest rates and Bitcoin miners capitulating, has been weighing on prices. Bitcoin finishes the week down 4% to trade at A$100,940 (US$66.6K) while Ethereum also lost 4% and is trading around A$5332 (US$3520). Solana was down 9.8%, but XRP actually gained 2.1% after its nemesis, SEC crypto unit boss David Hirsch resigned (no, he didn’t join Pump.fun, that was a gag.) Dogecoin lost 10%, Cardano fell 8.1% and Shiba Inu was down 7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 or Greed.
With massive ETF inflows, Bitcoin looked like it was heading toward new all-time highs last week, but it came crashing back to earth following stronger than expected US jobs data, which increases the chances of inflation numbers and interest rates remaining elevated. Record leverage build up on Bitcoin futures was flushed out as Bitcoin fell from A$108.5K (US$71.9K) to A$104.6K (US$68.9K). A US Federal Reserve meeting and CPI data are due out this week, with analysts scrapping predictions for a July rate cut. However, Europe and Canada have already cut rates. Bitcoin finished the week flat at A$104,884 (US$69.5K) while Ethereum eased back 2.7% to A$5,545 (US$3,673). Elsewhere it was a sea of red with Solana (-3.8%), XRP (-4.7%) and Cardano (-4.1%) all falling. The slide in meme stock GameStop also appeared to weigh on memecoins, with Dogecoin losing -8.6% and Shiba Inu decreasing -6.7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72 or Greed.
Bitcoin briefly topped the A$105.4K/US$70K mark earlier today, but is yet to convincingly break out above. We’ve been consolidating in this region since March, albeit with some dips below A$90K/US$60K. Bitfinex analysts suggest that long-term holders’ selling was a key reason for Bitcoin’s retreat from all-time highs, but on-chain data suggests these holders have begun to reaccumulate. The amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges has fallen roughly 10% this year to historically low levels. Unfortunately, Bitcoin’s active addresses are also at five-year lows. Bitcoin finishes the week flat at A$102,495 (US$69,037), while Ethereum lost 2.8% to trade around A$5,582 (US$3,772). Most other coins eased back a little: Solana fell 5%, XRP (-2%), Dogecoin (-6%), Cardano (-2%) and Shiba Inu (-3.5%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 73 or Greed.
The past week was arguably one of the most historic for crypto in a decade, with SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci summing it up as “a big year this week in crypto.” Pro-crypto legislation passed with bipartisan support in the US House of Representatives, the Ethereum ETF was approved, and Donald Trump promised to defend crypto from critic Elizabeth Warren and her “goons.” It suggests a sea change in crypto’s political fortunes and is a potential catalyst for the second stage of the bull run. Bitcoin topped the A$106K (US$70.6K) mark earlier today but at the time of writing the price was flat on seven days ago to trade at A$104,210 (US$69.5K). Ethereum gained 6.9% over the past week and is trading around A$5,839 (US$3,883). The ETF approval appears to have taken some of the gloss off of ETH killer Solana which pulled back 8.4%, and ETH competitor Cardano (-6.1%), XRP was flat, Dogecoin gained 2.5%, and Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed.
Crypto markets surged this morning after reports the SEC may actually approve an Ether ETF this week. At the time of writing Bitcoin was up 13% for the week to A$106,790 (US$70.5K) and Ethereum was up 24% to A$5,535 (US$3,661) — however markets were rising fast. Everything else was up including Solana (26%), XRP (6%), Dogecoin (9.6%), Cardano (14%) and Shiba Inu (9.1%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76 or Greed.
It was a choppy week for Bitcoin, with the Orange Coin trading between A$97.2K (USD$64K) and A$91.4K (US$60K), with sudden lurches either way. FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich warns that Bitcoin could see a panic sell-off if it closes under A$90.8K (the psychological US$60K mark) in the coming days, with traders looking for a break above A$98.3K (US$65K) to signal bullish conditions have returned. All eyes will be on the release of April’s US inflation data this week, with analyst Seth saying “Jerome Powell likely pump our bags” if inflation trends lower. Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.1% to trade around A$94,765 (US$62,752), while Ethereum lost another 4.5% to hit A$4,443 (US$2,942) amid waves of negativity from rivals and expectations of an ETF denial. Solana lost 4.7%, XRP (-7.1%), Dogecoin (-5.6%), Cardano (-4.2%) and Shiba Inu (-3.5%) The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 57 or Greed.
After a dismal few days in which Bitcoin plunged to A$87.5K (US$56.8K) as flows to the Bitcoin ETFs dried up and inflation fears surged, everything took a sharp turn for the better on Saturday. Bitcoin rose 5% off the back of cooler-than-expected US jobs numbers, easing inflation and interest rate fears. Bitcoin has just notched up one billion transactions, the 200-day moving average has just hit a new all-time high, and the ETFs broke a long streak of outflows with hundreds of millions added on Friday. Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes believes we’ve seen the local bottom, and he predicts range-bound price action between US$60K and US$70K (A$90K to A$106K) until August. Bitcoin finishes the week relatively flat at A$95,182 (US$63.5K), while Ethereum lost 3.9% over the week to trade around A$4,620 (US$3,081). Solana gained 13.1%, XRP was up 5.1%, Dogecoin (9.4%), Cardano and Shiba Inu were flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 or Greed.
A renewed assault on crypto by US authorities has seen markets flag, and April’s negative return is on track to be Bitcoin’s worst month so far this year. MicroStrategy has again bought the dip of course. Bitcoin finished the week down 4.8% to trade around A$97,411 (US$63,906), while Ethereum was flat at A$4,904 (US$3,217). It was a sea of red elsewhere with Solana down 13.1%, XRP (-7.8%), Dogecoin (-27.7%), Cardano (-12.2%) and Shiba Inu (-11%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 67 or Greed.
This week saw another mini crypto crash, with Bitcoin dropping to around A$94K (US$60K) as Israel struck back after Iran’s attack. However, prices recovered, and it became clear Iran did not want to escalate further. The region remains on a knife edge, though, with any escalation able to turn markets on a dime. Traditional markets were also hit, with concerns that the conflict would pump energy prices, which would hit interest rates and inflation. Bitcoin finishes the week up 6% to trade around A$103,455 (US$66,900) in the wake of Saturday’s halving, while Ethereum gained 4% to trade at A$4,967 (US$3,213). Everything else was up, including Solana (16%), XRP (13%), Dogecoin (1.1%), Cardano (13%) and Shiba Inu (24%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 73 or Greed.
Visions of a crypto-funded retirement got pushed back a little this week after the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US this year began to dim, and markets sold off due to tension in the Middle East. That was before Sunday morning’s 8.4% BTC plunge when news broke that Iran had launched a slow-motion attack on Israel. Despite being the largest deleveraging event since mid-2023, Glassnode analyst Checkmate says it “looks a lot more like your garden variety correction” than the start of a new bear market. With the immediate threat of escalation diminishing, and crypto ETFs approved in Hong Kong, markets began to recover. Bitcoin is currently 12% down on a week ago and trading around A$98,750 (US$63,193), while Ethereum lost 17% to trade around A$4,804 (US$3081). Solana lost 24%, XRP fell 25%, Dogecoin (-21%), Cardano (-25%) and Shiba Inu (-24%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.
Even after the US Government spooked markets by moving US$2 billion (A$3B) in Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road, BTC finished the week up 2% to trade at A$107,796 (US$70,939). Ethereum had a sudden surge overnight to A$5,584 (US$3,680), finishing up 6% on seven days ago. Did ETH just bottom out after falling below the 0.05 BTC mark for the first time since 2021? Who knows, but options data suggests there’s potentially another A$454 (US$300) of upside by the end of the month. Solana pulled back 1%, while XRP and Shiba Inu were flat, and Dogecoin reversed by 1.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.
Bitcoin closed out the month and the quarter above US$70K (A$107.6K) for the first time — that’s higher than the 2021 peak. The halving is less than three weeks off, and the stars are aligning for the bulls. However, this cycle is very different, with Bitcoin hitting a peak prior to the halving for the first time, and the usual rotation into ETH and altcoins apparently skipped in favour of degens trading memecoins. Bitcoin finished the week down 1% on seven days ago at A$107,570 (US$69,753), while Ethereum eased back 2% to A$5,388 (US$3,500). Solana gained 1%, XRP dropped 5%, Dogecoin gained 15.7%, and RektCapital believes it’s now in a “macro uptrend.” The analyst also predicts a bright future for Shiba Inu (-1%). April is usually a good month for crypto prices, with Bitcoin’s historical increase averaging 14.03% while ETH usually increases by 23.97%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 79, or Extreme Greed.