Market update
It was a choppy week for Bitcoin, with the Orange Coin trading between A$97.2K (USD$64K) and A$91.4K (US$60K), with sudden lurches either way. FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich warns that Bitcoin could see a panic sell-off if it closes under A$90.8K (the psychological US$60K mark) in the coming days, with traders looking for a break above A$98.3K (US$65K) to signal bullish conditions have returned. All eyes will be on the release of April’s US inflation data this week, with analyst Seth saying “Jerome Powell likely pump our bags” if inflation trends lower. Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.1% to trade around A$94,765 (US$62,752), while Ethereum lost another 4.5% to hit A$4,443 (US$2,942) amid waves of negativity from rivals and expectations of an ETF denial. Solana lost 4.7%, XRP (-7.1%), Dogecoin (-5.6%), Cardano (-4.2%) and Shiba Inu (-3.5%) The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 57 or Greed.
After a dismal few days in which Bitcoin plunged to A$87.5K (US$56.8K) as flows to the Bitcoin ETFs dried up and inflation fears surged, everything took a sharp turn for the better on Saturday. Bitcoin rose 5% off the back of cooler-than-expected US jobs numbers, easing inflation and interest rate fears. Bitcoin has just notched up one billion transactions, the 200-day moving average has just hit a new all-time high, and the ETFs broke a long streak of outflows with hundreds of millions added on Friday. Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes believes we’ve seen the local bottom, and he predicts range-bound price action between US$60K and US$70K (A$90K to A$106K) until August. Bitcoin finishes the week relatively flat at A$95,182 (US$63.5K), while Ethereum lost 3.9% over the week to trade around A$4,620 (US$3,081). Solana gained 13.1%, XRP was up 5.1%, Dogecoin (9.4%), Cardano and Shiba Inu were flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 or Greed.
A renewed assault on crypto by US authorities has seen markets flag, and April’s negative return is on track to be Bitcoin’s worst month so far this year. MicroStrategy has again bought the dip of course. Bitcoin finished the week down 4.8% to trade around A$97,411 (US$63,906), while Ethereum was flat at A$4,904 (US$3,217). It was a sea of red elsewhere with Solana down 13.1%, XRP (-7.8%), Dogecoin (-27.7%), Cardano (-12.2%) and Shiba Inu (-11%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 67 or Greed.
This week saw another mini crypto crash, with Bitcoin dropping to around A$94K (US$60K) as Israel struck back after Iran’s attack. However, prices recovered, and it became clear Iran did not want to escalate further. The region remains on a knife edge, though, with any escalation able to turn markets on a dime. Traditional markets were also hit, with concerns that the conflict would pump energy prices, which would hit interest rates and inflation. Bitcoin finishes the week up 6% to trade around A$103,455 (US$66,900) in the wake of Saturday’s halving, while Ethereum gained 4% to trade at A$4,967 (US$3,213). Everything else was up, including Solana (16%), XRP (13%), Dogecoin (1.1%), Cardano (13%) and Shiba Inu (24%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 73 or Greed.
Visions of a crypto-funded retirement got pushed back a little this week after the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US this year began to dim, and markets sold off due to tension in the Middle East. That was before Sunday morning’s 8.4% BTC plunge when news broke that Iran had launched a slow-motion attack on Israel. Despite being the largest deleveraging event since mid-2023, Glassnode analyst Checkmate says it “looks a lot more like your garden variety correction” than the start of a new bear market. With the immediate threat of escalation diminishing, and crypto ETFs approved in Hong Kong, markets began to recover. Bitcoin is currently 12% down on a week ago and trading around A$98,750 (US$63,193), while Ethereum lost 17% to trade around A$4,804 (US$3081). Solana lost 24%, XRP fell 25%, Dogecoin (-21%), Cardano (-25%) and Shiba Inu (-24%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.
Even after the US Government spooked markets by moving US$2 billion (A$3B) in Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road, BTC finished the week up 2% to trade at A$107,796 (US$70,939). Ethereum had a sudden surge overnight to A$5,584 (US$3,680), finishing up 6% on seven days ago. Did ETH just bottom out after falling below the 0.05 BTC mark for the first time since 2021? Who knows, but options data suggests there’s potentially another A$454 (US$300) of upside by the end of the month. Solana pulled back 1%, while XRP and Shiba Inu were flat, and Dogecoin reversed by 1.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.