Market update
September continues its reputation as “Downtember”, with the markets down again this week Looming “death crosses” for Ethereum and Bitcoin sparked another debate over whether it was a portent of doom, or whether charting was merely astrology for men. Bitcoin finishes the week down 3% at A$39,128 (US$25,119), while Ethereum dropped 5% to A$2,409 (US$1,547). Both are about 13-15% down on a month ago. XRP lost 7%, Cardano fell 6%, Dogecoin (-4%) and Solana fell 9% on fears of an FTX selloff. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is steady at 40, or Fear.
Despite a short-lived sugar rush from Grayscale’s court victory against the Securities and Exchange Commission, crypto markets remain in a holding pattern and are looking for a direction. Bitcoin finishes the week at A$40,035 (US$25,965), which is essentially the same as seven days ago. Ethereum also treads water this week and ends up at A$2,519 (US$1,640). XRP (-3%), Cardano (-4%), Dogecoin (1.2%) and Solana (-5%) also barely moved. The Fear and Greed Index is at 40 or Fear.
Crypto markets traded sideways again this week, with Bitcoin flat on seven days ago and trading around A$40,550 (US$26,025). Ethereum lost 1.3% and finished the week at A$2,570 (US$1,650). XRP and Cardano were flat, Dogecoin was up 1.4%, while Solana fell 3%. There is some good news, with Bloomberg analysts arguing the recent downtrend in Bitcoin prices is weakening, and the liquidations are “largely behind us” based on a decline in open interest. “As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term,” their report stated. However, with the war on crypto in full swing and the US Fed boss Jereme Powell indicating inflation is still too high and that “we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate” it’s anyone’s guess where markets will go next. Analyst Michael van de Poppe says that nearing 500 days, we’re in “the longest bear market in history for Bitcoin”. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 39 or Fear.
Bitcoin’s months-long sideways action ended with a bang late last week when the price dropped about 8% in ten minutes on Friday. Around US$2.5 billion of open interest in derivatives markets was cleared out in a few hours. The likely catalyst was some reheated old news about SpaceX writing down its BTC holdings and selling, but there are also fears over the Chinese economy, speculation about potential US interest rate rises, and the possible price impact of a rise in government bond yields. Bitcoin finishes the week down 11% to trade at US$26.1K, while Ethereum fared slightly better with a 10% drop to US$1,670. Everything else lost ground significantly, including XRP (-17%), Cardano (-9%), Dogecoin (-16%) and Solana (-16%). After a few months at Neutral, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 38, or Fear.
Back in the day, the merest rumour of a PayPal stablecoin would have ushered in a mini bull run, but in this era of SEC-induced uncertainty, it barely nudged the dial. Glassnode analyst Checkmate notes the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is just 2.9% — the third lowest volatility since 2015. Traders are so bored they’re pumping money into a meme coin called HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. Macro trends could be bad for Bitcoin, however, with Michael ‘The Big Short’ Burry opening his biggest leveraged short positions since his famous 2008 recession prediction. Bitcoin finishes the week flat at $45,410 (US$29,437), while Ethereum gained 1% to trade at $2,845 (US$1,844). Cardano was flat, while Ripple (1.6%), and Dogecoin (1.8%) moved a little, and Solana increased 9.4%. Tether has been trading a fraction below its $1 US peg for a few weeks now, which is slightly concerning. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 50 or neutral.
It was all quiet on the crypto front again this week, with no big moves. Bitcoin’s total transfer volume in USD has dropped to a three-year low, and its one-month volatility is at 22.9% (which is less than half the one-year volatility of 49.1%). Bitcoin has been mostly trading between A$43K to A$45K (just under US$30K) which is the same ballpark it’s been in since March. Bitcoin finishes the week flat on seven days ago at $44,420 (US$29,140), while Ethereum is down 1.7% to trade at A$2,780 (US$1,825). Euphoria over XRP’s court victory has dissipated, with the token falling 11.2%, Dogecoin losing 5.8%, Cardano (-5.8%) and Solana (-3.1%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at 49 or Neutral. Barring a major collapse or the passing of crypto legislation in the US, the next big market-moving event could be the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF or an Ethereum Futures ETF which some pundits are tipping for October.
Another week of sideways price action saw Bitcoin trading around the A$43K/US$29K mark with no major moves. Ethereum traded mostly in the $100 range around A$2,800. Fittingly the Crypto Fear and Greed index is at 50 or Neutral. Bitcoin finishes the week pretty much where it was seven days ago at A$43,210 (US$28,970) while Ethereum is down just over 1% and is trading around A$2,730 (US$1,825). XRP didn’t budge even after Wells Fargo’s Treasury Management officer Shannon Thorp predicted it could hit US$100 to US$500 (A$149 to A$745) which would give it a market cap slightly higher than America’s GDP. Cardano, Dogecoin, and Solana also traded around the same price as seven days ago.
It’s been a fairly quiet week for Bitcoin, which has been trading just above, and just below, the US$30K mark. It’s currently trading around US$29,100, down 3% on seven days ago. Ethereum has been almost as dull, although the trend was slightly downward, and it finishes 3% down at US$1,849. XRP (-5%), Cardano (-3%), and Solana (-13%) all eased while Dogecoin traded flat. The Fear and Greed Index is at 50 or Neutral. It’s shaping up as an interesting week in finance and the economy more broadly, with Microsoft, Google, Visa and Meta all releasing earnings reports and a 25bps interest rate hike expected in both the US and the Eurozone. US GDP, jobs and personal consumption data come out, any or all of which could impact crypto markets.
We’re back! That seems to be the majority opinion on Crypto Twitter following the landmark Ripple ruling. The Block reports an immediate surge in the seven-day moving average volume of crypto trading from US$12.74 billion to $16.56B (A$18.7B to A$24.3B). That’s still about 60% below this year’s peak, but it’s a start. As you might expect, XRP was the big mover this week, up 54.6% on seven days ago. Bitcoin fell slightly by 1% while Ethereum gained 1.5%. The ruling gave a vote of confidence to other coins the SEC believes are securities, with Cardano (8.1%), Solana (25%) and Polygon (5.6%) all making gains. Dogecoin gained 6.7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit greed in the days after the ruling but is currently 54 or Neutral.
The resurgence of confidence from BlackRock filing a Bitcoin ETF application is starting to level out, with Bitcoin mostly trading between US$30K and US$31K since June 24. It finishes the week down 2.4% at US$30.4K, while Ethereum is down 4% on this time last week at US$1,879. There weren’t many big moves: Ripple (-3%), Cardano (-2%) and Dogecoin (-4.2%), but Solana gained 10%, and Polygon increased 3.4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 56, or Greed.
The resurgence of confidence in crypto markets continues, with Bitcoin hitting its highest price in more than a year on news BlackRock had resubmitted its application for a Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin is currently changing hands at A$46,580 (US$31.1K), which is 2.9% up for the week, while Ethereum is trading at A$2,923 ($1,953), up 5.2%. Bitcoin is up almost 90% this year, while Ethereum hasn’t seen a monthly loss in 2023 and has notched up gains in excess of 60%. Ripple finished the week up 1.9%, Cardano gained 5.8%, Doge (5.6%), Polygon (10.4%), and Bitcoin Cash surged another 28.7%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 62, or Greed.
Bitcoin surged to its highest level in a year – around A$47K (US$31.4K) this week, marking an 85% rise for the year to date. Bitcoin finishes the week up 12.8% at A$45,155 (US$30.2K) while Ethereum gained 7.1% to trade at A$2,775 (US$1,859). Ripple fell 3.2% but most other coins enjoyed gains including Cardano (6.4%), Dogecoin (3.1%), Solana (1.5%) and Litecoin (12.3%). The biggest winner was Bitcoin Cash, which surged 108%, as investors reasoned the SEC will likely not declare it a security due to its similarity to Bitcoin. July is a historically strong month for prices notes Matrixport crypto researcher Makus Thielen, including 24%, 20% and 27% gains in the past three years. “Bitcoin could be at $33,000 to $36,000 by August (A$49.4K-A$54K),” he said. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 55, or Greed.