In markets
The collapse of the US-Iran peace talks, along with news that Michael Saylor had committed heresy by selling some of Strategy’s Bitcoin, sent BTC prices down almost 4% in 24 hours. President Trump says the ceasefire will likely be extended following moves to dampen the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, but hopes of a speedy resolution are fading.
Even as crypto prices tank, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting record highs, with the Shiller PE ratio at 42.78 — the highest reading since just before the dotcom bubble popped.
Large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs suggest “institutions aren’t just reducing exposure, they’re doing it urgently and at scale,” according to Glassnode. But crypto analyst Maartuun says smart money buyers may see value, with a “short-term relief rally looking increasingly possible.”
Bitcoin finishes the week down 7.5% to trade around A$99,294/US$71,072, while Ethereum lost 4.9% to trade around A$2,793/US$1,995. Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen to 59.25%, with altcoins trading at their highest relative levels since the October crash. Hyperliquid is the biggest winner and is now firmly ensconced in the top 10 with a 23.9% gain this week, thanks to healthy ETF inflows. Solana lost another 4.1% this week and has seen its eighth consecutive month in the red, while Cardano dropped 5.2% and now languishes at No. 17. XRP lost 3.9%, and Dogecoin fell 0.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 23, or Extreme Fear.
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Key Economic Calendar Events (AEST)
In headlines
Hell Freezes Over
Michael Saylor famously told Bitcoiners they should sell a kidney before they sell Bitcoin. So what should Bitcoiners make of the fact that Strategy has just sold 32 Bitcoin from its 843,706 BTC stack? While it’s bad for sentiment, the move was telegraphed well in advance and is believed to be a way to counter criticism that the firm’s Bitcoin holdings are of little value to its balance sheet unless it’s prepared to sell some. Saylor framed the sale as a way to support STRC, the company’s yield-bearing preferred stock. Strategy has also repurchased US$1.5 billion (US$2.09B) of its 0% convertible senior notes due in 2029 at a small discount. Strategy’s share price has more than halved this year.
Clarity Act hopes fading
The US Senate returns this week, but the odds of the Clarity Act passing have fallen to 55%. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes the compromise deal to allow crypto firms to pay yield for stablecoin activity will sink the bill. “The banks will not accept it that way … I’m telling you I will have nothing to do with it, and it will eventually blow up.” Democrats are also digging in on ethics provisions to prevent elected officials from profiting from crypto. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that if the act stalls in the Senate now, the US won’t see any effective crypto regulation until 2030.
Bitcoin ETFs
Another US$1.4 billion (A$1.95B) departed the Bitcoin ETFs last week. More than US$4B (A$5.6B) has waved goodbye since May 7 in the longest streak of outflows since launch. After a particularly large outflow day, Santiment noted hopefully that “previous examples, such as the nearly US$904 million (A$1.3B) outflow day in November 2025, occurred close to major market lows before prices recovered.” The ETH ETFs lost US$241.45 billion (A$337B) while the XRP ETFs saw inflows of US$15.2M (A$21.2M) and the Solana ETFs increased by US$2.36M (A$3.29M). The Hyperliquid ETFs have amassed US$132.1M (A$184.4M) since launch on May 13.
Perps go legit in the US
Hyperliquid is the big success story of this cycle, but the Perps appchain now faces regulated competition in the US. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has given the green light to Bitcoin perpetual futures on Kalshi and Coinbase. Perps are futures contracts without an expiry date. Funnily enough, Hyperliquid is also trying to muscle in on Kalshi’s territory, launching its own prediction markets on real-world events.
CME futures gap
CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market has begun trading 24/7, meaning the weekend “CME Gap” will become a thing of the past. The gap referred to the discrepancy in prices when the market wasn’t trading, and traders watched to see whether the market filled the gap by rising or falling as the new week began.
Bitcoin bear market?
More than 40% of Bitcoin holders are losing money at current prices, and Glassnode says “the majority of recent buyers are underwater and capitulating slowly.” Many are wondering if we’re in the midst of a 2022-style bear market, which saw Bitcoin finish the year 65% down. While that’s a possibility, Bitcoin didn’t soar to the same heights this cycle, and so far it hasn’t crashed as hard. Bitcoin News points out it’s been the “best bear market ever.” Historical data on halving cycles is also inconclusive. The 2012 halving cycle saw a bottom 777 days after the halving (similar to where we are today), but the 2016 and 2020 cycles had months left to run before bottoms were reached. Bitmine’s Tom Lee says we’re just seeing the usual “rage quitting” toward the “end of crypto winter”, while Alphractal has floated the possibility of an incoming short squeeze.
The hero Ethereum needs right now
Despite Ether dipping below the US$2000 (A$2,797) mark this week, the number of bullish to bearish ETH posts increased to a monthly high of 2.4 bullish to every 1 bearish. Standard Chartered’s digital assets research head, Geoffrey Kendrick, is among the bulls and believes that US$2 trillion (A$2.79T) each of stablecoins and RWAs will trade on the chain by 2030. “I view ETH’s performance very much as Jeff Bezos described AMZN’s share price during the 2001 tech bubble burst,” Kendrick wrote, adding, “ETH will catch up to the internal metrics; it is just a matter of time.” He’s tipping $4K (A$5.6K) by the end of the year and US$40K (A$56K) by 2030.
Hong Kong finalises crypto regulations framework
Public consultation on Hong Kong’s proposed licensing framework for crypto firms has concluded with financial regulators reporting “broad market support”. The proposed rules include strict capital requirements, KYC rules, marketing restrictions, and a requirement to conduct crypto-knowledge assessments of clients. The rules are expected to head to the Legislative Council later this year.
Asia crypto news
Standard Chartered and AXG have launched an institutional custody solution in Hong Kong, the territory’s first from a global systemically important bank. China’s Supreme People’s Court is examining new judicial rules for crypto and cross-border digital finance cases. Binance is partnering with local firm BlockShoals to gain access to the Philippines market. South Korean crypto volumes have slumped to just 8% of the volume of traditional stock markets, down from a high of 323% back in November 2024.
The Moonshot Dispatch
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