In markets
Markets may have been trending sideways, but the stars appear to be aligning for crypto, with Bitcoin recording its highest-ever weekly close, even as the global monetary supply hits new heights and the US dollar falls. USD tumbled 10.7% against its global peers in June, recording the worst half since 1973 in the aftermath of President Nixon taking the dollar off the gold standard. Strong jobs data suggest the US economy is resilient, with the odds of a recession falling to 22% according to Polymarket. The spot Bitcoin ETFs are nearing US$50 billion (A$77B) in cumulative net inflows, but Bitcoin’s “at the market” implied volatility has dipped to its lowest level since October 2023.
The Ethereum ETFs saw US$219.1M (A$337.1M) inflows last wee,k and there’s a new wave of bullishness around Ethereum, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee calling for a US$10,000 (A$15.4K) price target – having previously called Bitcoin in 2017, Tesla in 2019 and Nvidia in 2021. CNBC also put out a glowing report from EthCC headlined “Ethereum is powering Wall Street’s future.” Ethereum’s net inflows from other chains hit US$1.3B (A$2B) last week. Analyst Michael van de Poppe put out a chart showing the altcoin market cap (which excludes BTC and ETH) has been consolidating for four years and now looks set for a breakout. “That means we’re on the verge of the bull market,” he predicted. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 65, or Greed.
From the OTC desk
BTC OG movement
Last Friday, wallets holding over 80,000 BTC, dormant for 14 years, began transferring funds to a new address. These transfers occurred in notable increments of 10,000 BTC without prior test transactions. While speculation suggested possible OTC sales, hacks, or exploits, on-chain analytics platforms like Arkham indicate these are likely to address upgrades due to the absence of subsequent movement. The identity controlling these addresses (worth over $8.7B) remains heavily debated.
Retail vs. whale accumulation and distribution
Markets saw a clear handoff of BTC from whales to retail investors. On-chain data confirms wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC dumped ~14,000 BTC, while smaller, short-term holders snapped up ~382,000 BTC, signalling whale distribution into retail accumulation. Meanwhile, derivatives markets flashed bullish conviction as surging put option demand pushed the put/call ratio to a one-year high, reflecting strategic hedging from traders.
OTC Desk Activity
• Significant profit-taking continues at current levels.
• Heavy off-ramping flows observed.
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEST)
- Tuesday, 8 July 2025, 2:30 PM: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 3.6)
• Wednesday, 9 July 2025, 11:30 AM: CN Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 0.0%).
• Thursday, 10 July 2025, 04:00 AM: FOMC Minutes
• Saturday, 12 July 2025, 1:00 PM: CN Balance of Trade
• Tuesday, 15 July 2025, 12:00 PM: CN GDP Growth Rate
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Tariff day delayed
Crypto analysts had been hoping for clarity on July 9 when the 90-day “Liberation Day” tariff freeze was due to expire, but the deadline has now been extended to August 1. However, a 25% tariff rate has just been imposed on Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan and Malaysia, 40% on Laos and Myanmar and 30% on South Africa. These go into effect on August 1, suggesting it may just be another negotiating tactic. President Trump’s “big beautiful” bill also passed and will add significantly to the US deficit, prompting Elon Musk to start his own America Party to make fixing the huge debt problem a political issue. Musk was asked if the party would embrace Bitcoin, and he said, “Fiat is hopeless, so yes.”
Crypto Week legislation
US House Republicans have declared that the week of July 14 will be “Crypto Week” to consider upcoming crypto bills. The Block reports that the House looks like it will adopt the GENIUS stablecoin bill that was passed by the Senate, rather than resurrect its own Stable bill. The House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees previously advanced the crypto market structure legislation called Clarity, which is also up for discussion, as well as a bill to prevent the Federal Reserve issuing a CBDC directly to individuals. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other industry figures are set to testify to the Senate Banking Committee this week and a letter supporting the need for the bill was signed by 65 crypto organisations.
Bit Digital amasses a quarter of a billion in ETH
The Nasdaq-listed Bit Digital has sold its stack of 280 Bitcoin and used another US$173 million (A$266M) from a recent equity raise to amass 100,603 ETH. That’s up from 24,434 ETH held at the end of the first quarter. Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar said the firm plans to “aggressively add more so we become the preeminent ETH holding company in the world.” The stock price surged 21% on the news.
Solana ETFs
The SEC is pushing issuers to amend and refile applications for spot Solana ETFs by the end of July. CoinDesk reports this suggests faster than expected approvals, in light of the approval of the REX-Osprey Sol Staking ETF, which began trading last week under different rules. The ETF nabbed US$11.4M (A$17.5M) on its first day of trading on July 3.
Hong Kong’s tokenised bonds
Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, has confirmed the government is prepping a third batch of tokenised bonds, after it previously issued tokenised green bonds in 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com plans to take advantage of Hong Kong’s new stablecoin rules from August to issue stablecoins, including JD-HK, which will be pegged to the HK dollar. JD.com and Ant Group are also reportedly urging the People’s Bank of China to allow the issuance of yuan-backed stablecoins in Hong Kong.
Chinese brokerages secure licenses in Hong Kong
China Daily reports that mainland brokerages with international operations are vying to secure digital asset trading licenses in Hong Kong. Guotai Junan International — whose parent company is partly owned by the asset regulator of Shanghai and Shenzhen — recently got the nod to offer virtual asset trading and advisory services. Its stock price nearly tripled. Soon after, TF International Securities — which has a mainland owner — also secured SFC approval, as did China Renaissance. Alvin Ngan, a strategist at Zhongtai Financial International, said the firms “could facilitate the establishment of a regulated cross-border channel, enabling mainland capital to participate in the global virtual asset market through Hong Kong.” Despite this, crypto trading remains banned on the mainland.
Singapore fines banks
The Monetary Authority of Singapore has fined nine banks, including Credit Suisse and Citiygroup’s local operations US$21.5 million (A$33M) following a money laundering scandal. Deficiencies in anti-money laundering procedures saw cryptocurrencies used to mask gambling proceeds. MAS has been tightening regulations and booting out unlicensed operators. However, it has just granted a license to the Robinhood-owned Bitstamp.
Thailand’s Bitcoin treasury company
A consortium including Metaplanet, UTXO Management, Sora Ventures, Kliff Capital, Moon Inc, and AsiaStrategy has announced its intention to acquire Thailand-listed electronic retailer DV8 Public Company Limited. The move is part of a strategy to expand the Bitcoin Treasury company model in Asia, with Metaplanet already known as the Microstrategy of Asia. Jason Fang, founder of Sora Ventures, told Decrypt DV8, “has potential to be the next Metaplanet” on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Until next week, happy trading!
