In markets
It’s been a huge week for crypto markets, and we’re now in the most exciting phase of the Bitcoin bull run – price discovery. Bitcoin smashed through the previous all-time high of US$111,970 (A$171,970) mid-week and overnight topped US$122,404 (A$186,873). BTC is now the world’s fifth-largest asset, worth more than Amazon. There are plenty of possible explanations for the move, with the US looking set to adopt its first crypto legislation this week, the money supply is growing, the USD is falling, and Bitcoin is increasingly being seen as a safe haven from the spiralling US deficit.
RektCapital notes that previous cycles have seen between six and 13 weeks of price discovery before hitting a major correction. Podcaster Anthony Pompliano says BTC looks like it has further upside. “I don’t know if it goes to US$140,000 (A$214K), but it sure is going to make a big move here—because we are in a true price discovery phase,” he told CNBC. Bloomberg Terminal has even switched its scale for the Bitcoin chart to millions. Interestingly, while there’s no mania from what Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balcuhnas calls “dumdum Gamestop YOLO retail”, he points out that about 85% of the Bitcoin ETFs have been bought by “smart money retail” or their advisors.
Ethereum also had a huge week and increased 18% amid a wave of bullishness from ETH Treasury companies. It topped US$3,075 (A$4,681) but still remains 38% below its all-time high set back in 2021. EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson predicted ETH could be a “100 bagger” from here and hit US$1.5M (A$2.3M) over time. XRP increased by almost one-third, while Stellar surged 84%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74, or Greed.
From the OTC desk
Institutions leading the bull charge
Despite BTC/USD prices reaching all-time highs, retail interest remains lacklustre. This suggests that recent price movements have been driven primarily by institutional investors, particularly publicly listed companies acquiring Bitcoin to build corporate treasuries or reserves. Google searches, often a proxy for retail interest, are currently significantly lower than their 2021 levels.
Tariffs and Inflation
The market is closely monitoring today’s U.S. CPI report. A lower-than-expected inflation figure is likely to be considered bullish for risk assets, as it could signal room for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Conversely, a higher inflation print may indicate tighter monetary policy ahead. This data point is particularly significant, as it will reveal how U.S. prices for goods and services have responded to recent tariff impacts. Over the past week, President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the European Union, potentially disrupting trade. These tariffs are set to take effect in August unless a new trade agreement is reached.
OTC Desk Activity
- On-ramp flows for the purchase of BTC and some other altcoins
- Off-ramp flows for stablecoin pairs
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Tuesday, 15 July 2025, 10:30 PM: US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 3%)
- Wednesday, 16 July 2025, 4:00 PM: GB Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 3.4%)
- Wednesday, 16 July 2025, 10:30 PM: US PPI MoM (Consensus 0.2%).
- Friday, 18 July 2025, 09:30 AM: JP Inflation Rate YoY
- Tuesday, 22 July 2025, 11:30 AM: RBA Meeting Minutes
- Tuesday, 22 July 2025, 10:30 PM: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Speech
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Crypto Week legislation
It’s Crypto Week in the US House of Representatives, where legislators will vote on three significant crypto bills. The GENIUS stablecoin bill, which has already passed the Senate, looks set to become the first major piece of crypto legislation signed into law. The Clarity Act (the crypto market structure bill) is even more important and splits up regulation between the SEC and the CFTC. It has not yet passed the Senate (nor has any other companion bill), with Republicans targeting its passage by the end of September. The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act will also be considered.
ETH Treasury Companies
ETH Treasury companies appeared seemingly out of nowhere six weeks ago and have since bought 550,000 ETH worth US$1.65 billion (A$2.52B). Tom Lee’s Bitmine bought 163,142 ETH worth half a billion dollars overnight, and he’s talking about cornering 5% of the supply. BTCS bought another 14,522 ETH overnight, while Joe Lubin’s Sharplink Gaming bought another 75,000 ETH this week. Much of that ETH is headed straight to DeFi or the staking contract for yield. Another former Bitcoin miner called BTCT has also just pivoted to Ethereum.
Fidelity’s super bullish ETH report
Asset manager Fidelity released a super bullish report on Ethereum, stating Ether is a store of value, the narrative propelling Bitcoin into the stratosphere. Fidelity argues that blockchains shouldn’t be valued like Web2 companies but should be compared to sovereign nations and their economies. On that measure, with 3 million daily users in the Ethereum ecosystem and transactions at an all-time high, things are looking good. Fees are also being driven by real demand, with 47% of fees from the finance sector, 25% from trade and 6% from arts and entertainment. ETH is also the most popular asset in the network, accounting for 74% of all DEX trades, and ETH is the top collateral in DeFi lending.
ETH + ZK = 10K TPS
The Ethereum Foundation has unveiled a plan to upgrade the layer-1 blockchain to integrate a zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine within a year. This promises the holy grail of scaling while maintaining decentralisation. The blockchain currently requires validators to re-execute transactions to verify them, but in the future, low-spec machines would only need to check a tiny proof. The aim is to enable the L1 to hit 10,000 TPS and to allow L2S to scale up to millions.
ETFs breaking records
Last week, the Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded their second-highest inflow days on record. The Ethereum ETFs also had their biggest week on record, taking US$908 million (A$1.38B), while the Bitcoin ETFs hauled in a whopping US$2.7 billion (A$4.12B). BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF, “IBIT”, is now the company’s most profitable ETF.
Hong Kong and China stablecoins
The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting this week for local officials to consider strategic responses to stablecoins and digital currencies, which Reuters says is “a marked shift in tone for China, where crypto trading is banned.” The move comes amid lobbying from Chinese tech giants JD.com and Ant Group to issue yuan-backed stablecoins. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is set to issue its first stablecoin licenses by the end of the year. Still, Christopher Hui, Secretary for Financial Services, cautioned that the number would remain in the “single digits.” Hui said any stablecoin involving foreign currencies would require close coordination with relevant jurisdictions and regulators, and they will need to weigh up exchange rate impacts and systemic risks.
Singapore court battle
In a heated legal battle in Singapore’s High Court, WazirX users have accused Zettai, the local entity, of freezing their crypto and fiat balances without any clear justification. The exchange froze the funds after claiming a hack, but users say even unhacked assets were frozen. Blockchain evidence of a hack has also been disputed.
Metaplanet adds 797 BTC
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has purchased 797 Bitcoin for US$93.6 million, boosting its total holdings to 16,352 BTC and cementing its place as the fifth-largest publicly listed bitcoin holder. The firm plans to use its Bitcoin as collateral to acquire cash-generating businesses, with leadership describing the current environment as a “Bitcoin gold rush” and positioning Metaplanet to expand into digital financial services.
Korean crypto news
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is lobbying for greater oversight of stablecoins and has proposed creating a multi-department body to provide policy input. The central bank’s role is in a state of flux right now, as a month ago, Korea’s new government proposed a bill handing oversight over stablecoins to the Financial Services Commission (FSC). A different bill, however, requires the FSC to consider the central bank’s concerns. Eleven banks have joined a consortium to build shared infrastructure for stablecoins in Korea, with each bank planning to issue its own. Meanwhile, US crypto hedge fund Parataxis has acquired a Korean-listed company, which it plans to turn into the nation’s first Bitcoin Treasury company.
Until next week, happy trading!
