In markets
Crypto markets aren’t the only financial sector riding high — with the S&P 500 breaking records and meme stocks re-emerging, the Financial Times reports that analysts are worried about a possible bubble. Given the tidal wave of positive developments for crypto in recent months, a crash might be the only near-term threat to the ongoing crypto bull run. That said, macro is also looking good this week, with President Donald Trump’s one-sided trade deal with the EU erasing fears about his August 1 tariff deadline. Bitcoin approached US$120,000 (A$184K) and ETH neared US$4K (A$6,132) after the news broke, before easing back overnight to finish flat for the week. About US$1.2 billion (A$1.84B) in ETH shorts will reportedly be wiped out if the price tops US$4K. Billions of dollars in new money flowing into crypto treasury companies also helped ensure the Bitcoin price barely blinked when Galaxy sold US$9 billion (A$13.8B) in Bitcoin. However, Solana (-7.3%), XRP (-12.6%), Dogecoin (-17%) and Cardano (-11.4%) saw notable falls over the week. Ethereum dominance is now at 11.8% and “other altcoins” are at 27.6%. The White House Digital Assets Report will be released on Wednesday, US time, according to Bloomberg. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 75, or Greed.
From the OTC desk
Accumulation and Distribution
An early investor sold 80,000 BTC over the week, marking the largest notional sale of Bitcoin ever, at over USD $9 billion. Interestingly, Strategy reported no purchases during the week, suggesting that the market absorbed the selling relatively well. BTC/USD remained within a tight range during the selling, trading from a high of 119,400 to a low of 115,035. After the sell orders were executed on Saturday, the market surprisingly rallied back.
DeFi Back in Vogue
The Decentralised Finance (DeFi) market’s Total Value Locked surged to a three-year high of USD $153 billion, last seen in May 2022 before the collapse of the Terra network. This surge was driven partly by ETH’s rally and increasing institutional interest. Interest in advanced leverage strategies, such as looping and restaking, has reignited, alongside growth in Layer 2 solutions and platforms like Solana, Avalanche, and Sui. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem has been relatively muted, rising by just 9% to USD $6.2 billion.
OTC Desk Activity
- Profit-taking observed for Bitcoin and some smaller altcoin purchases
- Majority off-ramp flows for stablecoins
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Wednesday, 30 July 2025, 05:00 PM: EA GDP Growth Rate YoY (Consensus 1.2%)
- Wednesday, 30 July 2025, 08:30 PM: US GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Consensus 2.4%)
- Thursday, 31 July 2025, 02:00 AM: Fed Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 4.5%)
- Thursday, 31 July 2025, 11:00 AM: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 0.5%)
- Friday, 01 August 2025, 08:30 PM: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Consensus 110k)
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
PayPal rolls out support for 100+ coins
PayPal announced it’s rolling out its “Pay With Crypto” feature, enabling users to check out with more than 100 coins while saving up to 90% on transaction fees (when compared to typical credit card fees). Crypto payments will be automatically converted into PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD or fiat at checkout, reducing the issue of crypto price fluctuations for merchants.
Ethereum has momentum as 10th birthday approaches
Ethereum is 22.6% below its all-time high, but ETH maxis are still hoping it may still hit a new record price this week to mark the 10th anniversary of the network. The Ethereum Foundation is hosting a live stream to mark the event just after midnight on July 31 (AEST) with founders Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin. A massive queue of 665K ETH validators trying to unstake has raised concerns of a dump, though some suggest those holders are just chasing better returns than from staking, now that yields have surged. Tom Lee’s BitMine put out a corporate presentation stating it has consulted with several research firms to come up with an implied value for ETH of US$60,000 (A$92K). Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz told CNBC this week that “Ethereum probably has a [big] chance to outperform Bitcoin in the next three to six months.”
Bitcoin OG sells up
In one of the biggest Bitcoin transactions ever made, Galaxy Digital Market sold 80,000 Bitcoin from a Satoshi-era OG for around US$9 billion (A$13.8B). While Bitcoin lost about US$4,000 (A$6,132) in the aftermath, it quickly recovered. Analyst Scott Melker pointed out that Germany’s sale of 50K Bitcoin last year had tanked prices, but “Galaxy just sold 1.6x that, and nobody cared.”
Feeding frenzy of treasury companies
Since the start of the year, US$86 billion (A$132B) has been raised by crypto treasury companies in the US, which is double the amount raised by IPOs. Tom Lee’s BitMine is now at the top of the ETH treasury leaderboard with 560,000 ETH worth around US$2.1 billion ($3.2B). That’s about 10% of the way towards Lee’s stated aim of cornering 5% of the entire supply. Lion Group Holding has raised US$600M (A$920M) to launch its HYPE, SOL and SUI treasuries. Upexi secured US$500 million (A$766M) credit line to acquire SOL, former vape maker CEA Industries is raising $500M (A766M) to buy BNB, Mill City is raising US$450M (A$690M)to buy Sui, and Tron Inc filed a US$1 billion (A$1.53B) shelf registration to expand its Tron Treasury. Metaplanet bought another 780 BTC, and Marathon closed a US$950 million (A$1.45B) note sale to buy more BTC. SharplinkGaming bought another US$295 million ETH (A$452M), and BTCS added another US$55M ETH (A$84M).
ETH ETFs flip Bitcoin ETFs
The Ether ETFs flipped the Bitcoin ETFs last week, taking in US$1.85 billion (A$2.83B) to the Bitcoin ETF’s surprisingly paltry US$72 million (A$110M). BlackRock’s ETHA doubled in size from $10 billion in just ten days (A$15.3B), becoming the third fastest ETF to hit that mark in history (behind two Bitcoin ETFs). The Ethereum ETFs have taken US$4.7 billion (A$7.2B) since July 7, which is more than the preceding 12 months put together. Since the start of May, ETFs and corporations have bought 32x the amount of new ETH supply issued.
The four-year cycle is over. Again.
Many of the people banking on the “supercycle” theory last cycle blew up, but the idea that crypto won’t rise and fall in predictable cycles any more due to institutional interest is back. Bitwise CIO Matt Houghan argues the impact of the Bitcoin halving becomes half as important each time and says the money flowing into ETFs, a lack of retail mania, favourable regulations and the impact of interest rates, all suggest the four-year cycle is over. “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju agrees, pointing out that in the last cycle, whales sold to retail, but this time old whales are selling to new long-term whales, institutional adoption is bigger than expected, and holders outnumber traders.
Japan’s red tape is forcing crypto companies out
Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and CEO of onchain bank WeFi, said that even if Japan’s proposed 20% flat tax on crypto gains is implemented, the country’s “slow, prescriptive, and risk‑averse” approval culture would still hamper industry growth. “The 55% progressive tax is painful and very visible, but it’s not the core blocker anymore,” he said.
Vietnam’s national blockchain
Vietnam has launched a state-run blockchain network called NDAChain to provide a “decentralised layer of trust” for national systems such as finance, healthcare, logistics, and education. The layer 1 permissioned blockchain is not fully decentralised yet and has 49 public-private validator nodes.
Hong Kong stablecoins
Eddie Yue, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), says that “recent hot speculation” about the territory’s new stablecoin laws from August 1 had seen markets get “overly excited.” He said the new law will make it illegal to offer or promote fiat-pegged stablecoins to retail investors without a license and added that some recent promotions have bordered on market manipulation or fraud.
South Korea fast-tracking crypto laws
South Korea’s ruling Democrat Party announced it will fast-track crypto-focused legislation in the wake of the GENIUS Act passing in the US. The proposals include new tax laws, clear custody rules for exchanges, and a framework for won-based stablecoins. At the same time, however, the local finance regulator has informally warned local asset managers to reduce exposure to crypto ETFs and US-listed digital asset firms to comply with its 2017 guidance.
Crypto “wrench” attacks increase as investors favour exchanges
A wave of violent “wrench attacks”, defined as physical assaults aimed at coercing crypto holders to surrender private keys, is driving wealthy and high‑profile investors toward regulated custodial services. Experts report a sharp rise in such incidents globally, including high-profile cases in France and New York, revealing the limitations of self-custody. As digital assets soar in value, centralised custodians and public exchanges are seeing increased demand from nervous investors seeking enhanced security measures like multi-signature wallets, time-locks, and institutional oversight to mitigate personal risk.
Until next week, happy trading!
