In markets
Bitcoin came within sight of the US$100K/A$149K mark on January 15, as excitement grew about the potential for the CLARITY Act to sail through markup. But negotiations have stalled for now, and the markup has been delayed.
President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against European countries opposed to handing Greenland over to the US follow his usual playbook of delayed implementation (10% in February and 25% in June) to allow time for negotiation. That may be why crypto didn’t react much initially, but lost thousands in an hour on Monday after the EU signalled it is preparing punitive retaliatory measures. Gold and silver, meanwhile, surged to new highs.
Adding to the uncertainty, the US Supreme Court is due to rule any day now on the legality of his tariffs, with Polymarket estimating just a 30% chance they will be declared legal. Bitcoin finishes the week up 1.5% on seven days ago to trade around A$138,109 (US$92,675), while ETH is up 3.1% to trade around A$4,757 (US$3,192). XRP fell 3.1%, Solana lost 3.8%, and Dogecoin dipped 5.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 32, or Fear.
From the OTC desk
Geopolitical flashpoint: tariffs, Greenland strategy, and Bitcoin’s resilience
Amid renewed focus on strategic Arctic interests, President Trump’s push for US acquisition of Greenland using a combination of tariff threats and threats of military force has introduced fresh macro uncertainty. A letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre linked his push for Greenland to frustration over not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. This has added to existing diplomatic tensions, with the EU signalling impending punitive retaliatory measures. The development triggered a risk-off move across markets, with Bitcoin falling from recent highs near US$98,000 to around US$91,800 earlier this week.
Precious metals become more precious
In contrast with the cryptocurrency markets, precious metals have captured the spotlight in this environment, with gold surging to fresh all-time highs near US$4,600 – US$4,700 per ounce and silver climbing to records around US$93 – US$94, as investors sought classic stability during geopolitical headlines. In the short term, some capital rotated toward these proven safe havens, viewing Bitcoin more as a high-beta risk play amid acute uncertainty. The continuation of gold’s sharp rally remains uncertain, as its rapid momentum has drawn significant attention from short-term speculators and traders, in turn inviting volatility or profit-taking.
OTC desk activity
- Mixed spot flows, overall seeing more sell-flows ahead of macro uncertainty
- Offramping flows are hugely dominant on the stablecoin front
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEDT)
- Wednesday, Jan 21 2026 – 06:00 PM – GB Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 3.1%)
- Thursday, Jan 22 2026 – 10:50 AM – JP Balance of Trade
- Thursday, Jan 22 2026 – 11:30 AM – AU Unemployment Rate (Consensus 4.4%)
- Friday, Jan 23 2026 – 12:30 AM – US – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Consensus 3.7%)
- Friday, Jan 23 2026 – 10:30 AM – JP – Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 2.7%)
- Friday, Jan 23 2026 – 2:00 PM – JP – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 0.75%)
In headlines
US crypto market structure bill stalls
The US Senate Banking Committee postponed markup of its crypto market structure bill, which had been scheduled for last Thursday. Banking committee chair Tim Scott said, “Everyone remains at the table working in good faith.” While the bill is about 90% there, and many consider it is relatively favourable to DeFi, self-custody and P2P transactions, Coinbase dramatically rejected the draft because it doesn’t allow crypto firms to pay yield on stablecoins, saying the competition threatens US banks. CEO Brian Armstrong also believes the bill includes prohibitions on DeFi and a de facto ban on tokenised equities and said the bill “would be materially worse than the current status quo.” Other crypto leaders, Coin Centre, a16z, The Digital Chamber, Kraken, and Ripple have backed the bill. The White House told Coinbase to find a compromise with the banks. Even if the bill gets up in the Senate (and it still has to get through the Agriculture committee as well), lawyer Justin Slaughter from Paradigm noted there are 45 instances where regulatory agencies would have to issue new rules after the bill is passed into law, meaning it will take years to bed down.
The NYSE goes 24/7 with stock tokens
The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will seek regulatory approval to operate a 24/7 blockchain-based tokenised stock trading platform. Users would be able to use stablecoins to fund trades. The reaction from the crypto community was mixed, as no one seemed quite sure whether this would be good news for crypto-native projects. The announcement does mention support for “multiple chains for settlement and custody.” There’s no target launch date for the platform just yet.
ETFs’ best week in months
The US Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have just seen their strongest week of inflows in three months. The Bitcoin ETFs hauled in US$1.42 billion (A$2.11B), while the Ether ETFs attracted US$479 million (A$713.5M) for the first whole week of net inflows for ETH since June 2025. Analysts say the flows represent the return of longer-term institutional capital rather than short-term trades.
South Korea legalises stock tokens
South Korea’s National Assembly has approved rule changes that will allow the issuing and trading of tokenised securities on blockchain trails. That means stocks, bonds and real estate tokens will be tradable as tokens in South Korea from January 2027. Regulators are still drafting wider crypto regulations, with a proposal due out this month.
MrBeast and Mr Lee
Tom Lee’s BitMine announced a US$200 million (A$298M) deal with the world’s most popular online creator, MrBeast. The agreement is an investment in Beast Industries and its forthcoming financial services platform. Beast Industries CEO Jeff Housenbold said, “We look forward to exploring ways to collaborate further and incorporate DeFi into our upcoming financial services platform.” MrBeast is No. 1 on YouTube with 458 million subscribers and No. 3 on TikTok with 123 million followers.
Japanese stablecoin payments
Japanese credit card network JCB has teamed up with Resona Holdings and Digital Garage to test dollar- and yen-stablecoin payments at physical stores nationwide. Japan has traditionally been a cash-based society, but was also one of the first major economies to approve and launch a regulated stablecoin tied to the local currency.
AI slop crypto reply guys banned
Crypto Twitter (X) is a shadow of its former self lately, in part because X changed its algorithm to limit the daily reach of crypto accounts. The social media company made the change after discovering 80% of crypto posts were AI-generated slop promoting crypto projects for rewards and airdrops from platforms like Kaito and Cookie. X has now banned these platforms from API access and lifted the reach restrictions.
The Philippines and Bermuda embrace blockchain
Governments are increasingly adopting blockchain for budget transparency and record-keeping. The Philippine government’s Digital Bayanihan Chain is now recording every stage of the budget process, from congressional approval to spending. And the government of Bermuda has just announced a plan to put the island’s economy “fully on-chain” in partnership with Coinbase and Circle that integrates blockchain-based payments and financial tools nationwide.
Ethereum transactions double
Transactions on Ethereum L1 have doubled in the space of a year, with the seven-day average now hovering near an all-time high of 2.5 million. Gas fees are at historic lows, averaging around 15 cents. The gas limit has doubled in the past year, enabling greater throughput, with multiple increases planned for the coming year. In the past day, Ethereum processed an all-time high of 2.89 million daily transactions.
Solana gets fast and cheap competition
Ethereum fans often criticise Solana for trading decentralisation for speed, but now Ethereum L2 MegaETH is betting on sacrificing even more decentralisation to be even faster. It’s about to undergo a stress test targeting a sustained TPS of 15K to 35K to achieve 11 billion transactions in a week. Growthepie noted that during pre-testing this week, MegaETH peaked at 46,813 transactions per second. “That’s more transactions in 1 second than some chains have in a whole day. Excited to see this capacity put to good use!”
Return of the Moonshot Dispatch
Returning after a well-deserved break, Lee and Nick are back for another live crypto market update. Join us every Tuesday at 3 pm (AEDT) as we cover the latest crypto news, price movements and all the Bitcoin banter you may have missed. Tune in weekly on Twitter/X, YouTube, & TikTok.
Until next week, happy trading!
