Market update
Although Bitcoin managed to break above AU$60K (US$43K) a few times, at the time of writing it had pulled back to around AU$58,700 (US$42.3K) for a -2% finish to the week. Ethereum gained 1.5% this week and is up around AU$4,400 (US$3.2K) while Cardano surged on positive network metrics and announcements and is up significantly by 38%. XRP was flat, Polkadot (4.5%) and Dogecoin (17%) both saw more significant gains. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 22, or Extreme Fear which is pretty much where it’s been stuck so far in 2022.
It hasn’t been a great start to 2022, with Bitcoin essentially reversing an entire year of gains to be back in similar territory to January 2021. Bitcoin plunged on the weekend following an internet outage in Kazakhstan and signs the Federal Reserve was becoming hawkish. It dipped below the psychological US$40K (AU$55.7K) mark earlier today, with Ethereum falling below US$3K (AU$4.18K). Overall crypto markets have lost US$1 trillion (AU$1.4T) since the all-time high in November. At the time of writing Bitcoin was down 12% for the week just above AU$58,100 and Ethereum had lost 21% and was trading just under AU$4,300. Cardano lost 18%, Ripple (-14%), Polkadot (-24%) and Dogecoin (-18%). Bitcoin’s RSI fell below the May 2021 crash, making it the most oversold since the March 2020 pandemic crash. The supply in profit is around 66%, similar to July last year. Some hope this means the bottom is in. After dipping to 10, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is now at 23, or Extreme Fear.
Bitcoin may have pulled back one third from its all-time high of AU$95.7K (US$68.9K) in November, but it’s still up by almost 50% from a year ago, beating out the S&P 500 which was up 27% in 2021. Bitcoin’s performance was better than 2019’s 75% drop but didn’t hit the heights of other annual gains since 2016, which ranged between 81% to 1390%. Bitcoin dipped to around AU$63,000 (US$46.2K) on New Year’s Day and is currently trading around AU$64,300 (US$46.2K) for a loss of 11% this week. A survey of 110K CoinMarketCap traders tips we’ll hit AU$73K (US$52.6K) by the end of the month. Ethereum was down 10%, Cardano (-15%), XRP (-13%) and Dogecoin (-11%). Synthetix turned a corner, up 11% this week. The total crypto market cap is currently just over AU$3 trillion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 29 or ‘Fear’.
The Bitcoin price is around one third down from its all-time high price a little over a month ago. But while sentiment is bearish, on chain metrics remain strong and miners are holding on to their coins, with outflows halving in the last month and unspent supply about to hit a new ATH. Bitcoin spent most of the week trading between AU$64K and AU$69K (US$46K to $50K) and finished the week roughly where it began, around AU$66,000. Ethereum gained 1% and is trading around AU$5,550, Cardano was flat, XRP was up 9% and Dogecoin gained 3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index spent the week in the ‘Fear’ zone, but fell today down to 25 or Extreme Fear.
Crypto markets are seeing a price correction with many altcoins down by double digits this week. As usual, there are plenty of potential contributing factors, with inflation hitting a 40 year high in the US potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate its tapering plan and Chinese real estate giant Evergrande being declared in restricted default after failing to repay overseas bond holders. Bitcoin has also dipped below the 200-day moving average, which is never a good sign and finishes the week down 10% to trade around AU$65,500 (US$46,800). Ethereum lost 16% and is trading just above AU$5,300 (US$3,800). Cardano (-16%), XRP (-8%) and Dogecoin (-14%) all lost ground. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 28, or ‘Fear’.
After its big weekend plunge, Bitcoin has been trundling along mostly below AU$70K/US$50K until today when it poked its head above. It’s still down 12.6% for the week and is trading at just above AU$72,100 (US$50.9K). Ethereum has performed considerably better and is now just 2.4% on this time last week to trade around AU$6,150. Everything else was down including Cardano (-10.7%), Ripple (-16.6%) and Dogecoin (-17.5%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 16, or Extreme Fear, the lowest reading since July.
Crypto markets held a Black Friday sale when they tanked AU$280B (US$200B) late last week along with share markets on fears of a scary new variant from Omicron Persei 8. Crypto Twitter immediately flipped the switch to suicidal and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to Extreme Fear, even as an obscure ‘Omicron’ token gained 900% (before crashing of course). Markets have since recovered with Bitcoin finishing the week flat at just under AU$81,000 (US$57.8K). Ethereum’s up 5% on seven days ago to just above AU$6,200 (US$4.4K) but Cardano fell 12%, Ripple lost 7%. And it wouldn’t be a BTC price dip without news that Microstrategy had bought an additional 7,002 Bitcoin at an average price of AU$82,821 (US$59,187), bringing its total stash to 121,044 BTC. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan warns the volatility likely isn’t over just yet: “The over-exuberant recovery Bitcoin experienced once that fear subsided is of little consolation, as we can now see that the digital currency is clearly vulnerable to a stock market panic.”
After reaching new highs earlier in the month, crypto markets have pulled back across the board, with Bitcoin losing 14% on seven days ago to trade around AU$77,650 (US$56,500). Ethereum is trading around AU$5,650 (US$4,100) which is down 10.2% on seven days ago. Most other coins pulled back too: Cardano (-13%), Ripple (-13%) and Polkadot (-12.3%). Interestingly Dogecoin (-15.8%) was pushed out of the top ten by Avalanche which gained 42% this week. As you might expect sentiment took a dive from 72 last week (greed) down to 50 (neutral) this week according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
‘Moonvember‘ isn’t quite as catchy as ‘Uptober’ but Bitcoin and Ethereum have still been making new all time highs. On November 10, Bitcoin hit AU$93,450 (US$68,514) before plunging 10%. It’s currently 3.9% down for the week and is trading around AU$87,100 (US$64K). ETH’s new ATH that same day was AU$6,612 (US$4,834) and it is currently 4.3% down for the week at AU$6,238 / US$4,563. Cardano lost 4.8% during the past week, XRP lost 8% and Dogecoin (-7.2%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or ‘Greed’. Onchain analyst Willy Woo thinks high expectations are holding back a bigger price run. “Whenever everyone’s bullish, it’s very difficult for the price to run upwards because you get a whole lot of speculative long positions in the markets and that makes it very, very profitable to take the other side and short it,” he said. “The majority is very seldom right.”
After a big surge yesterday, and another one this morning, Bitcoin is officially in all-time high territory again against USD, AUD, SGD, and NZD. The price is up 7% in 24 hours, and 9.5% on the week. Analyst Rekt Capital has just posted a chart suggesting a blistering end to the year: “One final resistance left before #BTC enters its parabolic phase of the cycle.” Ethereum cruised on through to hit a new all-time high of AU$6,503 (US$4,822) a few hours ago and is currently trading up 8% on the same time last week at AU$6,480 (US$4,800). Cardano was up 6%, XRP gained 14%, Polkadot (4%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 75 or Greed.
Uptober was a great month for investors, with Bitcoin up 39.9%, for the best result since December last year. Glassnode points out that in USD value, the total price range of the candle of $23,205 (AU$30,850) was larger than Bitcoin’s entire price range in the decade or so from genesis to December 2020. (Incidentally, October 31 marked 13 years since the release of the Bitcoin white paper). This week however the coin fell 6% and finished up around AU$81,250. Ethereum also pushed into price discovery on October 29 with a half trillion USD market cap (AU$676B) and is currently around AU$5,750. XRP was fairly flat, Polkadot gained 9%, Dogecoin was up 2.2% (but was pushed out of the top ten by meme clone Shiba Inu), Uniswap gained 2.2% and Cardano lost 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed.
Congratulations team, we have notched up a new all-time high, with Bitcoin hitting AU$89,160 (US$66,234) on October 21. The market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently at AU$3.491 trillion (US$2.62T). Ethereum made a push but faltered about $10 short of previous USD all time highs, hitting US$4,330) on October 21. Due to AUD/USD fx rate changes, the AUD price of ETH did hit a new all time high of $5,838. As Crypto Twitter likes to say WAGMI. Bitcoin is currently trading just around AU$84,300 and is down 2% for the week. Ethereum is trading at AU$5,650 and is up 9% for the week. Cardano and XRP were fairly flat this week, Polkadot gained 4%, Dogecoin (3%), and Chainlink (21%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or Extreme Greed.