In markets
After an impressive run up to a new all-time high for Bitcoin of US$124,457/A$191,680, markets pulled back, causing much wailing on the weekend as some assumed it was all over. The US producer price index had come in hot at 3.3%, dampening expectations for an interest rate cut in September. However, crypto’s fundamentals are looking healthy, with Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average now above the US$100K/A$154K mark for the first time, and BTC accounting for 1.7% of the global money supply. Bitcoin finishes the week down 1.5% to trade around US$116,956/A$180,439. Ethereum also got within 2% of a new all-time high (US$4878/A$7532) before buyers lost their nerve. It has held above the US$4100/A$6315 resistance it was under for four years, and the ETH supply on exchanges is down to just 12%. Ethereum finishes the week up 3.8% to trade around US$4377/A$6754. Leveraged ETH shorts are also at an all-time high as many expect the price to fall. However, with billions flowing in from ETH treasury companies, the high leverage could lead to a short squeeze upwards if they’ve miscalculated. Other notable moves include Solana, up 6% for the week, and Cardano, up 20.8%. Searches for ‘altcoin’ have hit the highest level since 2021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 60, or Greed.
From the OTC desk
Last week, US inflation eased a little (headline CPI 2.7% yoy) but not likely enough to spur any rate-cutting action that the administration is so hungry for. Producer prices ran hot (further signalling no rate cuts), and retail sales held up. While the chances of a rate cut are still alive, the market sobered up after looking at this data. Bitcoin and Ether stayed in their ranges. US spot BTC and ETH ETFs took in money over the week, and stablecoin supply edged higher, both of which help market liquidity. Closer to home, as expected, the RBA trimmed rates by 25 bps, easing local financial conditions. China’s latest data softened and bank lending shrank – both a headwind for Asia-ex-Japan risk appetite, crypto included. Also, if you were hoping for a classic Trump deal at Anchorage with Putin, you would have been disappointed, as no ceasefire or broader agreement was reached.
Looking ahead, focus on Jackson Hole from 21 to 23 August for any hint that shifts the September-cut story or pushes real yields around. Keep an eye on two simple liquidity gauges: daily US spot-ETF flows for direction and weekly stablecoin issuance for depth. Watch China’s next credit and activity reads; more weakness there usually dampens regional risk-taking. For Australia and Singapore, the key local checks are Australia’s monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday, 27 August, and Singapore’s upcoming NODX release, which both feed into the US dollar path and cross-border flows that matter for crypto.
OTC desk activity
During last week’s all-time high, we saw a flurry of profit-taking activity, which ended up being one of the busiest days on record. Thus far, it has proven to be the correct move, with prices down ~7% from there. USDT remains well bid in the market, allowing sellers to take advantage. Other prominent themes include rotations into longer-tail assets and USDT pricing up to 10 pips over peg, drawing in opportunistic sellers.
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Wednesday, August 20 2025, 09:50 AM: Japan – Balance of trade (Consensus ¥196.2B)
- Thursday, August 21 2025, 04:00 AM: US FOMC Minutes
- Friday, August 22 2025, 09:30 AM: JP Inflation Rate YoY
- Friday, August 22 2025, 03:00 PM: SG Core Inflation Rate YoY
- Saturday, August 23 2025, 12:00 AM: US – Fed Chair Powell Speech
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Ethereum validator queue
Ethereum’s validator queue currently has 909,788 ETH (out of 35.5 million ETH staked) seeking to exit, while around 270,265 ETH is queued to enter. Some of the exiting ETH may be sold, and some will be re-staked or chase better yields in DeFi. Ethereum is also at, or near, all-time highs in terms of transactions and active addresses, while gas fees remain surprisingly low — demonstrating that while the network is not scaling particularly fast, it is scaling.
Ether ETFs see record week
The Ether ETFs saw the highest volume and inflows on record last week. The Ether ETFs took US$2.9 billion (A$4.46B) in additional capital last week, while the Bitcoin ETFs took US$547.6 million (A$843.6M). Around 6.38% of the entire Bitcoin supply is now held by ETFs, along with 5.08% of the Ether supply. The SEC punted decisions on applications for XRP, Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs and Truth Social’s Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. Meanwhile, BlackRock boss Larry Fink has been appointed interim chair of the World Economic Forum.
BitMine to buy US$20 billion ETH
Tom Lee’s BitMine upped the ante once again this week, announcing plans to sell up to another US$20 billion (A$30.8B) worth of stock to buy more ETH. It bought another 373,110 ETH over the week, bringing its total to 1.523 million ETH, and BitMine was the 10th most traded stock in the US. Joe Lubin’s Sharplink Gaming announced a US$103 million (A$159M) second-quarter loss. Also this week, a new and unidentified actor has purchased US$1.3 billion (A$2B) in ETH across 10 new wallets.
Strategy changes strategy
Strategy has bought another 430 BTC and backtracked on an earlier announcement that it would not issue MSTR stock below 2.5x mNAV (the amount of Bitcoin per share). A debate erupted on X and the What Bitcoin Did podcast over whether Strategy is a Ponzi scheme because it pays new investors dividends from the contributions of later investors. Proponents, however, argue that MSTR files full public disclosures and warns investors of risks.
The 51% attack that wasn’t
The Qubic mining pool claimed to have mounted a successful 51% attack on privacy blockchain Monero’s proof of work network and conducted a six-block-deep reorganisation. However, Qubic’s founder now concedes that a deeper analysis shows that while it mined more than 51% of the blocks accepted, it only hit 34% of the total hashrate. The Qubic community have voted to attack Dogecoin next.
The non-custodial wallet ban that wasn’t
A new Google Play Store policy appeared to ban non-custodial crypto wallets from the Play Store in the UK and would force wallets in the US to register with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. However, Google quickly updated the guidance to clarify that non-custodial wallets are not in the scope of the new rules.
Solana’s 100K TPS claim
Solana has stress-tested the network with a claimed 107,540 transactions per second on the mainnet. However, these were “no-operation” program calls that do not perform meaningful computation or state changes. How the brief spike in TPS would translate into real-world token transfers remains debatable. Helius founder Mert Mumtaz claims you could “theoretically do about 80-100k TPS in transfers, Oracle updates, and similar ops.” Solana currently runs at around 1050 “real” TPS.
Circle’s new L1
Following Stripe’s announcement last week that it would build its own stablecoin-focused Layer 1 blockchain, USDC-issuer Circle has followed suit. It has announced Arc, a new EVM-compatible L1 using USDC for gas, with a built-in FX engine, fast finality, and opt-in privacy.
Japan and Korea’s stablecoin moves
Japan’s Financial Services Agency is expected to approve a stablecoin from local company JPYC in the coming months. News outlet Nikkei reports JPYC aims to issue around US$6.78 billion (A$10.4B) worth of stablecoins over the next three years. South Korea’s financial regulator will submit a new stablecoin bill to legislators in October. Representatives from the four largest Korean banks are set to meet with Circle next week to discuss stablecoins.
The Moonshot Dispatch
Every Tuesday at 3 PM, Independent Reserve broadcasts a live market update that we’ve affectionately named “The Moonshot Dispatch”. Hosted by our head of sales, Lee Eaton and Nick Fletcher from the OTC desk, we cover the latest news, price movements, and crypto conspiracy theories from our specially-made HQ studio. Join the hundreds of viewers who tune in weekly across Twitter/X, LinkedIn, YouTube, Facebook & TikTok for this hilariously interactive stream.
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