In Markets
Solid jobs data this week saw US stock markets recover the ground they’d lost since April 2’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs caused a major sell-off. And, after two down months in a row, Bitcoin finished up 14.2% in April. However, Bitcoin then took a dive on Monday, in a move some analysts linked to President Trump’s latest announcement of tariffs on non-US movies, though a direct relationship seems unclear.
Bitcoin finishes the week up 1% at A$147,366 (US$95,025) while Ethereum gained 2%, ahead of this week’s Pectra upgrade, to trade around A$2,826 (US$1,826). CoinDesk reports the tightest Bollinger Band squeeze on the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart since 2020 (indicating low volatility and consolidation), suggesting ETH will experience a big move soon. Ripple, which reportedly failed in its bid to acquire USDC issuer Circle, saw XRP lose 7%. Solana remained flat, Dogecoin is down 4%, and Cardano dipped 5%. The Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of A$2.8B (US$1.8B) last week while the Ethereum ETFs saw inflows on all but one day and took A$165M (US$107M) for the second positive week in a row. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 59, or Greed.
From the OTC desk
Last week was largely a holding pattern for global macro, with central banks across the U.S., Australia, and Singapore maintaining their current stances. The U.S. Federal Reserve stayed put on interest rates, with markets increasingly resigned to a December rate cut being the earliest plausible easing. U.S. labour markets showed some cooling — a modest 177,000 jobs added — but not enough to force the Fed’s hand. Down under, the RBA held at 4.1%, showing continued caution even as inflation eased to 2.4% — its third straight quarter within the target band — while core inflation slipped just below 3%. Meanwhile, Singapore’s MAS pulled back slightly on its tightening stance, lowering core inflation forecasts.
Banking sector news was light but telling. Westpac missed earnings expectations, citing cost pressures and margin compression — a story mirrored in Singapore where bank profitability is expected to stay flat despite rate headwinds, buoyed by the city-state’s gravitational pull on global capital. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators began re-evaluating internal risk ratings for the major banks, suggesting the regulatory pendulum could be swinging back toward scrutiny, even if softly for now.
In a world used to high-frequency crises and policy whiplash, the current macro quiet feels almost disorienting. Central banks are largely sidelined, economic data is neither hot enough to spook nor cold enough to spur action, and even the banking sector — fresh off a year of rate-induced stress — seems content to grind sideways. Markets appear to be in a “wait-and-see” mode, with volatility suppressed not by clarity but by indecision. This kind of calm can be deceptive: either it sets the stage for genuine stability, or it’s the eerie pause before macro forces reassert themselves. And with Trump behind the wheel — proposing film tariffs while downplaying actual trade threats — you’d be forgiven for leaning toward the latter.
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Thursday 4am: US Federal Funds Rate announcement
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Crypto legislation released in the US
A discussion draft of the US crypto market structure bill has been released. It offers a clear test of decentralisation and exempts non-custodial DeFi protocols. It also defines stablecoins without calling them securities, and says secondary sales of tokens that don’t provide an ownership interest in a business or entitle the holder to profits would not constitute securities. The bill details the public disclosures crypto projects need to make to raise capital under the Securities and Exchange Commission, and how they could alternatively fall under the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission’s remit as digital commodities. Maxine Walters, the leading Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, has said she will block a joint hearing unless the legislation is amended to include a provision blocking President Trump from profiting off of crypto. Nine Democrats have also signed a letter opposing the Senate stablecoin legislation.
Ethereum upgrade tomorrow
Ethereum’s biggest upgrade since the Merge, Pectra, is scheduled to go live Wednesday night around 8 pm AEST. There are 11 changes that improve the staking experience and update various technical functions, but the big change for ordinary users is the introduction of native ‘smart accounts’ (AKA account abstraction). This change enables transaction bundling, wallets that streamline the process of approving spending limits and executing transactions, and apps that can sponsor gas fees. The upgrade also doubles the number of data availability blobs to help L2s scale, and raises the max amount that can be staked to 2,048, which will cut down the number of unnecessary validators. Gnosis Chain, similar to Ethereum’s mainnet, successfully rolled out the Pectra fork this week without a hitch. Meanwhile, creator Vitalik Buterin has put out a blog calling for Ethereum to reduce the complexity of the protocol over the next five years to better mirror Bitcoin’s simplicity and resilience.
Meet our team at the Bitcoin Pizza Day in Melbourne
We’re teaming up with Upside and PizzaDAO for Melbourne’s official Global Bitcoin Pizza Day celebration happening Thursday 22 May at The Commons in Cremorne, Victoria. The evening will feature conversations about Bitcoin’s history and future, approachable Crypto 101 content, and open Q&A alongside pizza, drinks, and a crowd full of web3, tech and startup energy. Whether you’re crypto-curious or deep in the space, it’s a great chance to meet our team, share ideas, and connect over a slice.
Bitcoin reserve bill vetoed
Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has vetoed the state’s freshly approved Bitcoin Reserve legislation, which would have allowed public funds in the state to invest up to 10% of their capital into virtual currencies. Hobbs said that “retirement funds are not the place for the state to try untested investments like virtual currency.” “Impeach Katie Hobbs, she just screwed over Arizona,” Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey wrote. North Carolina’s lower house has just passed a more moderate bill allowing for 5% allocation, which is now headed to the state Senate.
Solana upgrade
For the second time in a year, Solana validators have privately coordinated upgrades to client software to fix a bug, this time in the Token-2022 confidential transfer program. While the bug wasn’t exploited, critics claim the coordinated upgrade highlights a lack of client diversity and decentralisation in the network. The argument is that being able to easily identify the validators potentially opens up the network to censorship from a hostile government. Ethereum, which is very slow and expensive by contrast, is much more decentralised and has five clients (programs that run the network) to prevent this type of issue from becoming critical.
Bitcoin devs go to war
Bitcoin devs are engaged in a fierce debate over the ability to store data in transactions using the Bitcoin operation code OP_RETURN. Conservatives want to maintain or further restrict the 83 byte limit to prevent spam, while progressives want to relax the threshold, saying that users already stuff large amounts of data text and images into blocks like Taproot outputs. It’s descending into open warfare, with Github moderators censoring/moderating leading conservatives Luke Dashjr and Bitcoin Mechanic. Critics called the Peter Todd-written pull request (PR) 32359 “chaotic, insane, malicious, no consensus, shenanigans, and vandalising.” Bitcoin Core has reportedly announced it will remove the limit in its next release regardless.
Crypto apps get a boost
Fortnite developers Epic Game’s court win against Apple this week enables app devs to bypass a 30% payment fee to Apple. The ruling paves the way for app developers to accept crypto payments directly, to buy and sell NFTs for example. At present Metamask opens up a browser for payments, while OpenSea doesn’t allow NFT purchases at all. The ruling is US only, so it remains to be seen what effect it might have elsewhere.
EU to outlaw privacy coins and anon accounts
Anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coins will be outlawed in the European Union from 2027 under new regulations. The new Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) prohibits crypto asset service providers (CASPs) from maintaining anonymous accounts or handling privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies, such as Monero and Zcash.
Maldives signs $9B deal to build crypto hub
The Maldives has signed a US$9 billion agreement with Dubai-based MBS Global Investments to develop a major crypto and blockchain hub in Malé. The five-year project will create the Maldives International Financial Centre, with plans to employ up to 16,000 people. The initiative aims to diversify the nation’s economy beyond tourism and fisheries. However, the Maldives will face strong competition from established fintech centres like Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore, which benefit from mature regulatory environments and well-developed investment ecosystems.
Independent Reserve crypto & Bitcoin podcast – Episode 1
To launch the series, host Lee Eaton is joined by Adrian Przelozny, CEO and Co-Founder of Independent Reserve. Adrian shares insights from more than a decade in the crypto industry, reflecting on the early days of building an exchange, the challenges that shaped its growth, and the milestones that made it all worthwhile.
Full episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgv33ZbB3J4
Until next week, happy trading!
