In Markets
After spending 44 glorious days above US$100,000 (A$156.4K), Bitcoin fell below this level due to the conflict in the Middle East. Bitcoin had appeared resilient in the initial hours after the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, the threatened closure of the Hormuz Strait – which carries 20% of the world’s oil supplies – combined with over US$1 billion in crypto liquidations, ultimately dragged it below the psychological US$100K level. Analysts warn a closure could drive oil prices to US$100 (up 33.5%) per barrel if disruptions continue.
Ethereum broke below the crucial support line around US$2,362 (A$3,670), XRP, SOL and HYPE all fell below their respective support levels, while smaller altcoins were hit even harder. Bitcoin dominance is now at its highest point since January 2021 at 65.8%. However, Iran’s “very weak” attack on the US base in Qatar overnight, with a courtesy call to the Americans to let them know the missiles were coming, suggested to many observers that Iran may not be seeking a wider conventional conflict right now. Crypto markets got a boost from the prospect, as well as the Trump-announced ceasefire, with Bitcoin up 5.7% to US$105,470 (A$162,752) and Ethereum gaining 12% in the 24 hours to Tuesday morning (but it remains 5.1% down on a week ago).
Even before the weekend’s flare-up, crypto markets were looking patchy, with spot volumes near yearly lows, funding rates negative and the number of whale addresses at the lowest level since early April. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 65, or Greed.
In Headlines
Texas Bitcoin Reserve becomes law
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed the state’s Bitcoin strategic reserve bill into law. Texas follows Arizona and New Hampshire in establishing a Bitcoin reserve, although Texas is the first to create a stand-alone, publicly funded reserve. CoinDesk reports the state is allocating US$10 million (A$15.5M) toward purchasing Bitcoin.
Digital token service providers leaving Singapore
Singapore’s MAS will require DTSPs serving only overseas clients to be licensed or cease operations from June 30, citing financial crime risks. Hannah Puganenthran, Head of Compliance at Independent Reserve Singapore, noted that the new rules level the playing field for licensed providers and promote responsible practices, but warned that overly broad application could drive valuable talent and expertise out of Singapore. MAS maintains that the move strengthens regulatory clarity and supports the country’s position as a trusted digital asset hub.
Stablecoin act passed by US Senate
The US Senate last week passed the GENIUS stablecoin act in a 68-30 vote, making it the first major piece of crypto legislation to pass in the chamber. President Donald Trump urged the House of Representatives to follow suit. “The House will hopefully move LIGHTNING FAST, and pass a ‘clean’ GENIUS Act,” Trump posted. “Get it to my desk, ASAP — NO DELAYS, NO ADD ONS.”
The Senate bill establishes a framework to regulate dollar-pegged stablecoins to ensure they are audited and fully backed. The House Financial Services Committee has passed the STABLE act (which is now quite different to the Senate’s GENIUS bill), but it is yet to be put to a vote, and the lower house may instead decide to adopt the GENIUS bill. Crypto czar David Sacks told the All-In podcast the banks had successfully lobbied to prevent yield-bearing stablecoins from being included, worried they’d threaten savings deposits. USDC issuer Circle’s stock gained 80% over the week. In other promising regulatory developments, the Federal Reserve has removed its “reputational risk” element from assessments for banks, which was seen as a factor in crypto debanking.
Wen altseason?
Everyone keeps asking when altseason will occur, but a new report suggests it already did. Using Binance data, the report shows that altcoin trading peaked at US$1.56 quadrillion (A$2.42Q) in November 2024 but collapsed to just US$387 trillion (A$602T) in May. ETH trading remained stable, however, ranging from US$300T to US$490T (A$466T to A$762T) over the same period, suggesting traders have been pulling money out of alts and sticking to safer major assets. Analyst Michael van de Poppe points out that the Altseason Indicator has hit the lowest level in two years, but notes that June or July marked the bottom for the indicator every year since 2019.
Ethereum’s next upgrade finalised
Hot on the heels of the successful Pectra upgrade, Ethereum developers have officially finalised the scope of the forthcoming Fusaka upgrade. The upgrade includes 12 Ethereum Improvement Proposals, including EIP-7549 or Peer Data Availability Sampling, which is like BitTorrent for Blobs and will help L2s scale. Other upgrades are deep in the technical weeds, including EIP-7825 which sets a transaction gas limit cap; EIP-7951 is which is aimed at precompiling support for the secp256r1 curve; and EIP-7939 which introduces a new opcode for counting leading zeros. The contract code size limit in EIP-7907 has been lowered from 256kb to 48kb. Fusaka Devnet 2 launches this week.
ETF news
Despite an outflow on Friday, the Ethereum ETFs managed to take in US$38.2 million (A$59.4M) inflows for the week, while the Bitcoin ETFs performed strongly with US$1.35 billion (A$2.1B) flowing in. Bloomberg’s ETF analysts have raised the odds of US regulators approving a wave of crypto ETFs by the end of the year to “90% or higher” due to “very positive” signs of engagement from the SEC with issuers. Analyst James Seyffart said the SEC likely views coins like DOGE, XRP and SOL as commodities.
Vietnam’s new draft rules trigger industry backlash
Following the recent legal recognition of digital assets, Vietnam has released draft crypto regulations outlining mandatory licensing, strict capital requirements, and exclusive use of approved domestic exchanges for local users. Critics, including Kyber Network and Endeavor Vietnam, warn the high capital threshold of 10 trillion dong (~A$588 million) and vague scope of compliance could stifle innovation and push smaller firms and talent abroad.
Hong Kong cross-border hub
Paul Chan, Hong Kong’s financial secretary, told the Wealth Management Expo the region is on track to become the “world’s number one cross-border asset management centre within two to three years.” He highlighted the fact that the number of registered funds in the jurisdiction has reached 976, with an annual net inflow of more than US$44 billion (A$68B), an increase of 285%. He singled out the recent stablecoin legislation, due to go into effect in August, as an important component. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is also running Project Ensemble, a tokenisation sandbox aimed at modernising interbank settlements.
Thailand’s SEC opens consultation on crypto listings
Thailand’s SEC has launched a public consultation on proposed new rules that would allow digital asset exchanges to list their own tokens, including mandatory disclosures to curb insider trading and conflicts of interest. The consultation is open until 21 July 2025 and forms part of Thailand’s broader push to become a global crypto hub. It follows recent moves including tax exemptions on crypto gains and regulatory reforms aimed at supporting innovation while strengthening investor protections.
Bits and pieces
JPMorgan analysts have warned that Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin poses significant risks. Semler Scientific announced this week it will grow its BTC stack from 3,808 to 105,000 BTC by 2027. Anti-Iranian hacker group Gonjeshke Darande has claimed responsibility for a hack of Iranian exchange Nobitex of US$81.7M (A$127M). The money stolen was burned and one of the wallets had the vanity address “TKFuckiRGCTerroristsNoBiTEXy2r7mNX.” Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes the current cycle mirrors early 2017 and that the cycle could extend to mid-2026. He also thinks a sharp move upward is possible. “From my work, it’s straight up from here. I think we’ll be surprised to the upside—especially by how fast stuff runs.”
Until next week, happy trading!
