In markets
Bitcoin came within a whisker of breaking its all-time high in USD $123,091 (A$188,945) yesterday — and some Aussie Bitcoiners say it has already surpassed the ATH in Aussie Dollars due to fluctuations in the exchange rate. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.8% to trade at A$181,835 (US$118,729). But all eyes are on Ethereum’s revenge arc back to 2021 prices after two years of bearishness and FUD. ETH is currently up 13.4% for the week to trade around US$4,216 (A$6,457). Ethereum’s big move on the weekend led to much discussion of a rotation into altcoins, but with 20,000 new coins being created per day, not everything is set to benefit. Analyst Miles Deutscher is calling for a “mini alt season”; however, the CMC Altcoin Season index has been ranging between 29 and 43, so it’s not happening just yet. In potentially worrying macro news, more than 90% of fund managers surveyed by the Bank of America think US stocks are overvalued. There was a massive outflow from US crypto ETFs on Monday last week, but the Ether ETFs recovered to take US$327.6 million (A$502.9M) for the week while the Bitcoin ETFs took US$253.2M (A$389M). BlackRock dashed hopes for an imminent new altcoin ETF by saying, “At this time, BlackRock does not have any plans to file an XRP or SOL ETF.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.
From the OTC desk
Inflation watch: Will CPI ignite a market surge?
The United States will release a pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tonight, which could significantly influence market dynamics. A lower-than-expected CPI figure is likely to bolster bullish sentiment by increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, Wall Street may approach tomorrow’s data cautiously, following the President’s dismissal of the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics after disappointing jobs data intensified scrutiny of his tariff policies last week. With cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) nearing all-time highs, the market’s response will be closely monitored. Futures markets currently indicate an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, up from 55% a month ago.
Bitcoin’s rally: Bulls hold firm, bears eye gaps
The recent sharp rise in BTC/USD and ETH/USD prices has liquidated over $100 million in short positions, catching bearish traders off guard. Bears are now focusing on the weekend’s CME gap, a price disparity created because CME futures trade from Sunday evening to Friday evening, while cryptocurrency markets operate continuously. Historically, all CME gaps for BTC/USD have been filled over varying timeframes, and a new gap at $117,000 presents a key target for bears. Conversely, bulls highlight a critical factor: the ratio of leveraged futures to spot buying is near all-time lows. This indicates that the rally is driven primarily by spot demand rather than leverage, suggesting robust support for current price levels.
OTC desk activity
- Seeing some BTC profit-taking and rotation into Altcoin purchases
- Stablecoin off-ramp flows outweigh on-ramp flows, but not significantly
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Tuesday, 12 Aug 2025, 2:30 PM: AU RBA Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 3.6%)
- Tuesday, 12 Aug 2025, 10:30 PM: US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 3%)
- Thursday, 14 Aug 2025, 4:00 PM: GB GDP Growth rate YoY (Consensus 1%)
- Thursday, 14 Aug 2025, 10:30 PM. US PPI MoM (Consensus 0.2%)
- Friday, 15 Aug 2025, 12:00 PM: CN Industrial Production YoY (Consensus 5.8%)
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
US retirement savings open up to crypto
This week, the insanely bullish news continued with President Donald Trump issuing an executive order opening up US$12.2 trillion (A$18.7T) in 401(k) retirement plans to crypto. Technically, retirement plan operators can already do so, but Trump’s EO instructs the Labour Department to explicitly allow crypto in a rewrite of its guidelines. Trump also issued an EO preventing banks from debanking clients in the crypto industry or for their political views. The Trump family were debanked after his controversial first term, which is how the President came to reassess his formerly negative views on crypto.
Ethereum is back on top
Ethereum smashed through the US$4,000 (A$6,140) mark on the weekend, and peaked around US$4,365 (A$6,697) in the past 24 hours for the highest prices since the 2021 bull run, and around 10% short of a new all-time high. The market cap has surpassed half a trillion dollars in USD, and creator Vitalik Buterin has regained his billionaire status. On the weekend, Eric Trump posted, “It puts a smile on my face to see ETH shorts get smoked today.” At least some of the resurgence is due to BitMine’s Tom Lee appearing on every TV show and podcast he can while comparing ETH to Bitcoin in 2017 and setting price targets up to US$30,000 (A$46K).
Treasury company frenzy continues
In astonishing ETH treasury company developments this week, Tom Lee’s BitMine has amassed 1.2 million ETH, double Joe Lubin’s Sharplink Gaming’s 598.8K ETH. However, Sharplink raised an additional US$900 million (A$1.38B) this week to buy more. New entrant Fundamental Global filed with the SEC to launch a US$5 billion (A$7.67B) shelf offering to buy Ether and says it plans to gobble up 10% of the entire supply. Meanwhile, Joe McCann’s US$1.5 billion (A$2.3B) Solana treasury company plan has reportedly been cancelled, which some tied to news that McCann’s fund, Asymmetric, is down 80% for the year. The Trump dynasty’s World Liberty Financial is involved with a new treasury company trying to raise US$1.5B (A$2.3B) to purchase the WLFI token. The DeFi project has its own treasury, which contains mostly ETH, some wrapped Bitcoin, and Tron. Jack Dorsey’s Square is reportedly launching a Bitcoin banking suite to accelerate Bitcoin treasury adoption for small businesses. Additionally, the listed company Safety Shot has added US$25M (A$38.4M) in the memecoin BONK to its treasury.
Stripe to create its own blockchain
The US$92B (A$141.2B) fintech and payments giant Stripe is reportedly building its own EVM-compatible layer 1 “high-performance payments-focused blockchain” called Tempo. The news emerged after Fortune noticed a job ad for the project, which is still in stealth mode. Tempo has a five-person team working on it in partnership with Paradigm.
Bo Hines steps down
Bo Hines, the director of the White House crypto council, has stepped down from the advisory group to rejoin the private sector. Patrick Witt, the deputy director, will likely be appointed. Meanwhile, Adriana Kugler’s resignation from the Federal Reserve board saw Bitcoin supporter Stephen Miran appointed in his place.
Tornado Cash developer found guilty
Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm was convicted last week of operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business. Still, a mistrial was declared after the jury couldn’t reach a verdict on charges relating to money laundering or sanctions violations. Storm walked free from court and will appeal. Supporters argue that releasing open-source software cannot be considered a money-transmitting business without capturing all of DeFi.
First stablecoin to get a credit rating
USDS, the decentralised stablecoin from Sky (formerly Maker), has received a credit rating of B, with a stable outlook from S&P. This is the first credit rating for any stablecoin system, whether decentralised or not.
Singapore, crypto hub
A study from Apex Protocol, which found that a quarter of the population now owns cryptocurrency, gave Singapore a perfect composite score of 100 for cryptocurrency adoption. Meanwhile, an employment analysis by Taurex put Singapore in fourth place as East Asia’s premier crypto hub. The Straits Times took an in-depth look at the resurgence of enthusiasm for crypto in the country.
Asian crypto news roundup
The Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand has added USDT and USDC stablecoins to its approved trading list, which already includes Bitcoin, Ether, Ripple and Stellar. Local ISPs in the Philippines have started blocking major crypto exchanges such as OKX and Bybit, as part of a crackdown on global exchanges operating without proper authorisation. The UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) and the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) have announced a strategic partnership to unify the UAE’s approach to crypto regulations. BitMine was the most purchased foreign security in South Korea in July, and the country’s Financial Services Commission plans to introduce spot crypto ETFs and stablecoins later this year.
The Moonshot Dispatch
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