In markets
It’s been another grim week for Bitcoin hodlers, with the fourth weekly negative close below the 100-week moving average. Spare a thought for ETH hodlers who are on track for their sixth consecutive month in the red and are 60% down from the all-time high. The only other time that happened was a seven-month negative stretch in 2018 — though that was followed by six of the next seven months of price appreciation. Some green shoots have appeared, with Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis and funding rates ticking up, suggesting more traders are going long. Coinbase says its retail users in the US are “buying the dip”, and long-term ETH accumulation addresses have seen significant inflows. Bitcoin is down 2.7% from seven days ago to trade around A$97,495 (US$68,769), which is below last cycle’s all-time high, while Ethereum has lost 6.3% over the same period to trade around A$2,830 (US$1,996). XRP gained 2.3%, Dogecoin 4.7%, and Cardano 5.8%, while Solana fell 1.8%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 12, or Extreme Fear.
From the OTC desk
Waiting for the next move
Global markets remained choppy last week amid mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., fresh economic indicators showed a cooling inflation backdrop, with recent CPI data coming in softer than expected, helping bond prices rally and yields across the 2- and 10-year curve pull back. Such moves boosted sentiment about the potential for future Fed rate cuts. However, volatility in equity markets, particularly in tech and AI-linked stocks, persisted, with major indices posting modest declines as investors rotated out of high-beta names and into more defensive sectors. Retail sales figures disappointed slightly, and markets appear increasingly sensitive to corporate earnings guidance and forward growth expectations.
In Australia, rate expectations remain data-dependent, with markets closely watching upcoming labour and inflation prints to assess the RBA’s policy trajectory.
Across crypto markets, total market capitalisation has been relatively subdued, hovering around US$2.35–2.43 trillion. Bitcoin continues to consolidate within recent ranges, while broader altcoin performance remains selective, reflecting a cautious but stable risk appetite across digital assets.
OTC desk activity
- This week, we usher in the Chinese New Year, and as such, expect a moderation in trading volumes as major regional financial centres operate on reduced hours and institutional participation eases, with many participants stepping away from markets to observe the holiday with family. Gong xi fa cai to those who celebrate!
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEDT)
- Tuesday, Feb 17 2026 – 6:30 PM – GB Unemployment Rate (Consensus 5.1%)
- Wednesday, Feb 18 2026 – 12:30 AM – CA Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 2.4%)
- Wednesday, Feb 18 2026 – 10:50 AM – JP Balance of Trade (Consensus ¥-2142.1B)
- Wednesday, Feb 18 2026 – 06:00 PM – GB Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 3%)
- Friday, Feb 20 2026 – 10:30 AM – JP Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 1.9%)
In headlines
Clarity act deal still a way off
Last week’s White House meeting between banks and crypto industry representatives failed to reach a deal over the Clarity Act’s proposed prohibition of stablecoin yield. Bank representatives dug in their heels, while the Digital Chamber circulated a document with some compromise proposals. A Senate Banking Committee source called the proposals “constructive” but thought they would have difficulty getting support from the banks. A third meeting has yet to be scheduled, and Polymarket odds for the bill passing are currently at 55%. The White House is getting frustrated with Coinbase for pulling its support for Clarity over the issue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said opponents of the bill in the crypto industry are “recalcitrant actors” who would prefer “no regulation over this very good regulation.” Bessent also said it’s now or never as “the prospects of getting a deal done will just fall apart” if Democrats gain a majority in the House this year. Polls suggest they will.
Elon Musk’s X to offer stock and crypto trading?
According to Nikita Bier, X’s head of product, the platform’s 600 million monthly users will be able to trade crypto and stocks directly from the timeline, with execution handled by third-party partners rather than X itself. Elon Musk also revealed the platform’s X Money payments feature is currently in beta testing for the next two months before being rolled out worldwide. “This is intended to be the place where all money is. The central source of all monetary transactions,” he said.
Despite initial hype around this “announcement”, Nikita was quick to walk back expectations. “X is not handling trade execution or acting as a brokerage. Just building the financial data tools and links.”
Harvard buys ETH
The Harvard Management Company, which manages the university’s US$56.9 billion (A$80.4B) endowment, has cut its Bitcoin ETF stake by 21% to US$265.8 million (A$375.8M) and bought 3.8 million shares in BlackRock’s ETH ETF worth US$87 million (A$123M).
Thailand approves crypto derivatives
Thailand’s cabinet has approved changes to the Derivatives Act, enabling crypto to serve as the underlying instruments for regulated derivatives products. “This development will help promote more inclusive market growth, facilitate diversification and more effective risk management, and expand investment opportunities for a broader range of investors,” SEC Secretary-General Pornanong Budsaratragoon said.
Dutch unrealised gain tax passes
Dutch crypto traders now face paying capital gains tax on the unrealised gains from their crypto holdings at the end of each year. That means anyone who has round-tripped crypto gains will have to pay 36% tax on paper profits they no longer have. The House of Representatives passed “The Actual Return on Investment in Box 3 Act”, which imposes an unrealised gains tax on savings, shares, bonds and crypto, but not property. It still has to pass the Senate before being implemented in the 2028 tax year.
BlackRock’s BUIDL on Uniswap
BlackRock has made its first foray into DeFi, listing its tokenised treasury fund, BUIDL, on Uniswap in partnership with Securitize. However, trading in the tokens will initially be limited to a select group of institutions and market makers before expanding more broadly. BUIDL is the biggest tokenised money market fund with US$2.18 billion (A$3.1B) in assets. The deal also saw BlackRock become a UNI holder.
CFTC adds 20 crypto execs as advisors
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has added 20 crypto execs to its 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee. CFTC chair Mike Selig said the committee will “ensure the CFTC’s decisions reflect market realities” and enable it to “develop clear rules of the road for the Golden Age of American Financial Markets.” The new members include executives and founders from Gemini, Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Solana, Uniswap, Grayscale and others.
Quantum of solace
The prospect of a quantum computer breaking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and everything else drew closer on the weekend with the release of a new paper. In 2021, it was believed that breaking RSA-2048 encryption would require 20 million qubits, but Google researchers revised that down to 900,000 last year, and the theoretical number has now dropped to just 100,000 physical qubits. Bitcoin’s secp256k1 elliptic curve cryptography is believed to be easier to break with quantum computers than RSA-2048. An updated Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360, which would create a quantum-resistant output to hide public keys until the Bitcoin is spent, was merged for consideration last week. It’s only the first and easiest step towards making Bitcoin quantum-resistant — and it will be intensely difficult to get consensus given the scale of the other changes required and the dismissal of the problem as FUD by leading Bitcoiners. On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin’s recent price action is due to markets pricing in the possibility that Satoshi’s coins will be stolen in future and dumped on the market.
Ethereum Foundation director steps down
Tomasz Stańczak fired up the Ethereum community when he was appointed co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation early last year. He’s stepping down to focus on AI/agentic systems and will be replaced by Bastian Aue, who will be the new co-executive director alongside Hsiao-Wei Wang. Stańczak, who is also the founder of Nethermind, says he’ll keep working on Ethereum. “I want to see and support the realisation of the vision that I have talked about over the last years. It is one of the most exciting times to be a builder on Ethereum,” he wrote.
The Moonshot Dispatch
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Until next week, happy trading!
