Market update

Bitcoin has fallen to two-year lows amid the FTX fallout, with just over 51% of addresses at a loss, which compares to 55% at the bottom of the previous crypto winter in January 2019, and 62% in 2015.

However, the price crash from the collapse of the world’s second largest exchange hasn’t been as severe as may have been expected, with Bitcoin down another 8% for the week to trade around A$23,990 (US$15.8K) and Ethereum down 13% to hit A$1,670 (US$1.1K). Everything else was down including XRP (-8%), Cardano (-11%), Dogecoin (-15%) and Solana (-18%). Some true believers are still buying, with Pantera Capital reportedly snapping up A$212M (US$140M) in BTC to once again demonstrate its belief in halving cycles (which will theoretically see a turnaround early in 2023). El Salvador President Nayib Bukele plans to dollar cost average in from now on, buying one Bitcoin a day. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 22 or Extreme Fear.

Normally, crypto markets would likely be heading upwards following the news that US inflation had come in below expectations by falling to 7.7%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 certainly had their best week in six months! However, the FTX/Alameda collapse saw the overall crypto market plunge from A$1.52 trillion (US$1.02T) to A$1.235T (US$827 billion) in the space of a week. Bitcoin fell from A$32K (US$20.8K) to hit the lowest point for the year below A$24.4K/US$16K with more pain expected. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) reached an all-time monthly low of 40.5 on November 10. Bitcoin finishes the week 21% down to A$25K (US$16.7K) while Ethereum lost 23% to trade at A$1,880 (US$1,260). Everything else crashed too including XRP (-23%), Cardano (-20%), Dogecoin (-25%) and Solana plunged 53%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 24 or Extreme Fear. In some good news though, the extremely low prices mean that the number of people who own one whole Bitcoin is fast approaching 1 million.

This week saw no major moves on the crypto market…untill today.. The overall market cap has dropped under US$1 trillion to around US$965M (A$1.5T). There are signs of continued hiring in the US jobs market, despite a slight rise in unemployment to 3.7%, but all eyes will be on the inflation data coming out later this week. Bitcoin finishes the week down 8% to trade around A$30,275 (US$19,540) and Ethereum which was down 12% to finish at A$2,240 (US$1,440). XRP was down 9%, Dogecoin (-32%) and Cardano finished at -11% for the week. Solana also dropped 23% for the week despite good news about partnerships with Google. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 31, or Fear.

So October turned out to be ‘Uptober’ after all, with Bitcoin increasing 6.2% over the course of the month and Ethereum rising 20%. At the time of writing the overall cryptocurrency market cap was back over the US$1 trillion mark at around A$1.579T (US$1.013T). Bitcoin is up 2% on the same time last week to trade around A$31,950 (US$20,475). Ethereum gained 13% for the week to trade around A$2,470 (US$1,580). XRP was flat but Dogecoin overtook Cardano with a whopping 120% rise, thanks to honorary Dogecoin CEO Elon Musk buying Twitter. Cardano itself rose 10% while Solana gained 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has finally climbed out of the Extreme Fear zone for the first time in six weeks to sit at 31 or simply Fear.

The stock markets have welcomed a report the US Federal Reserve is set to debate a less-aggressive interest rate hike in December. However, with economic turmoil in Britain and the looming spectre of recession, the overall picture remains bleak. Crypto markets are running fairly steadily with Bitcoin finishing the week at A$30,545 (US$19.3K) and Ethereum down slightly to trade around A$2,120 (US$1,340). XRP lost 9%, Cardano (-5%), Solana (-12%) while Dogecoin finished flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 20, or Extreme Fear, which is where sentiment has been stuck since last month.

Inflation in the US rose at twice the pace forecast by economists and was up 0.4% in September and 8.2% for the year. The likelihood of a recession in the US and Europe has increased, although many pundits believe Australia may squeak through yet again. Some analysts draw comparisons with the high inflation, and the super long sideways market of 1940 to 1947 to suggest the next bull run is far away. Crypto markets appear to have found a certain amount of equilibrium at these prices, with Bitcoin up 3% for the week to trade just under A$31,000 (US$19.5K). Ethereum increased by 4.6% to A$2,110 (US$1,330). XRP lost 2.5%, Cardano dropped 5%, Solana was down 0.5%, and Dogecoin was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 20 or ‘Extreme Fear’.