Market update

The possibility of up to US$100 billion (A$152B) flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs has propelled the price upwards by 25% in the past month. This week BTC has been threatening to break through the US$38K (A$57.9K) mark – a price it hasn’t touched since April last year. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.8% to trade around A$57,500 (US$37,500), while Ethereum is down 1.5% to trade at A$3,100 (US$2,027). XRP lost 7%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano rose 9% (interestingly, both were named securities once again in the SEC’s new case against Kraken), and Dogecoin was up 5%. Further down the list, Synthetix rose by a third. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 69 or Greed.

After surging to almost A$59,000 (US$37.9K) this week, Bitcoin is currently taking a bit of a breather and finishes the week up 1% trade around A$56,920 (US$36.4K). Ethereum got a big boost from BlackRock’s ETF filing and finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$3,198 (US$2,044), above the psychological US$2K mark. XRP pulled back by 9%, Solana jumped another 22%, Cardano lost 5%, while Dogecoin was flat. The overall crypto market cap is at A$2.21 trillion (US$1.4T) and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72.

We’re back! That’s the prevailing sentiment thanks to Bitcoin’s 29% gain in “Uptober” and double-digit price gains for some altcoins this week. Bitcoin has more than doubled in price so far this year, The Simpsons just did another crypto episode, and the prospects for a Santa Claus rally look enticing. As ever, things could fall apart quickly, with JP Morgan chair Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning that geopolitical conflicts could result in a global recession. Here in Australia, analysts now expect a possible Cup Day rate hike to be followed in short order by another rise. Bitcoin finished the week up 1.8% to trade around A$54,000 (US$35.1K), while Ethereum gained 4% on seven days ago to trade around A$2,919 (US$1,900). There’s a mini-altseason going on with Ripple up 20%, Solana gaining 16%, Cardano increasing 19% and Dogecoin up 8%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed which is the highest level since the all-time high in November 2021.

Crypto has decoupled from stocks in the short term, with a tech stock wipeout midweek, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting correction territory of 10% down from recent highs (though both recovered a bit on Monday). Bitcoin appears to have found a new home around the $A54K/US$34K mark and finishes the week up 3.5% to trade at A$54,350 (US$34,480). Ethereum was up 2.7% on seven days ago to trade around $2,853 (US$1,810). XRP gained 5.35%, Solana (10.1%), Cardano (9.3%) and Dogecoin (4.5%). Searches for “Buy Bitcoin” surged 826% in the UK in the past week, and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously sold his BTC stack in 2022, now regrets the move, saying: “I don’t own any Bitcoin but I should.” The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 68, or Greed.

‘Uptober’ is shaping up as one for the history books, with the odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval growing by the minute. The Bitcoin price grew steadily over the week and suddenly spiked from US$32K to US$34K (A$50.5K to A$53.7K) in a few minutes this morning. Crypto market volumes have grown 50% over the past day, although they’re still at relative lows equivalent to mid-2019. Public Bitcoin ETF funds saw US$43M (A$68M) of inflows today, equating to around 10% of the year-to-date figure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands for A$51,755 (US$32,780), up 18% for the week, while Ethereum had gained 11% to trade around A$2,790 (US$1,760). Bitcoin dominance is at a two-year high, which old hands will tell you can be a good time to invest in altcoins, which tend to surge on delay after a rally draws in new participants. Some altcoins are already starting to outperform, with Solana gaining 33% and Chainlink up 39.5% this week. Ripple gained 10%, Cardano was up 12%, and Dogecoin increased 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 53, or Neutral, but expect that to change shortly.

The Bitcoin price surged 10% and nudged US$30K overnight on fake news of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval and fell quickly back to earth when the news was revealed to be the fantasy of a social media intern. The focus on a Bitcoin ETF approval has still been good for Bitcoin, which finishes the week up 2.9% to trade around US$28,450. Ethereum was flat and finishes at US$1,590. Ether is currently trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin and the lowest point since the shift to proof of stake. Elsewhere XRP lost 1.4%, Solana gained 8%, Cardano was flat, and Dogecoin increased 1.8%. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve show the policymakers agreed to maintain high-interest rates for an extended period. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47 or Neutral.