Market update

Bitcoin saw its worst month on record in June with a 38% fall, while Ether lost 47%. Contagion continues among crypto lenders and economists increasingly believe the US may already be in a recession. Adding to the fun, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates by 0.5% today and in Turkey, inflation is at an eye watering 79%. But there’s a sense things may finally be stabilising in crypto after an extremely volatile few weeks. “Overall caution is still the name of the game,” Susannah Streeter, a markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, told CoinDesk. Bitcoin is down 4.9% to trade around AU$29,600 (US$20.3K) and Ethereum is down 5.7% to trade around AU$1,675 (US$1,155). XRP lost 9.5%, Cardano (-9.5%) and Solana (-7%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 14, or Extreme Fear.

Things are starting to settle down, but with the effects of various collapses, bad loans and forced selling still working its way through the system, anything could happen. Bitcoin finished down 3% to AU$29,945 (US$20.7K) on a week ago, while Ethereum also managed to close the weekly in the green for the first time in 12 weeks, and is currently up 2% to AU$1,710 (US$1,180). XRP was up 6%, Solana (6%) and Polkadot (-5%). Documenting Bitcoin points out that in December 2020 when Bitcoin was at the same price it is now the Fear and Greed Index was at 92 or Extreme Greed. It’s currently at 12 or Extreme Fear.

Sad news this week after Bitcoin died for the 455th time. This time it’s serious however with Google searches for ‘Bitcoin dead’ hitting a new record. It’s certainly been a historic week with BTC dropping well below the 2017 former all-time high, plunging to AU$25,640 (US$17,744) on June 19th (ETH fell to AU$1,293/US$896). The unprecedented drop calls into question various cycle halving theories and invalidates the maxim that “no one who invested in Bitcoin and waited four years has lost money.”  Over the weekend Glassnode reported AU$10.5B/US$7.325B in onchain BTC losses had been “locked in by investors spending coins that were accumulated at higher prices.” Bitcoin finishes the week down 11.5% to trade around AU$29,300 (US$20.4K) while Ethereum is down 10.4% to trade around AU$1,580 (US$1,100). However: Cardano was up 6%, Solana jumped 25% and Polkadot increased 9.8%. Various analysts suggest that relative altcoin strength means much of the BTC and ETH fall was due to forced selling and liquidations. After dipping to 6 out of 100 over the weekend, the Fear and Greed Index is now at 9 or Extreme Fear.

Bitcoin has stabilised by 4% in the past 24 hours, and finishes the week down 31% at US$22,150, or AU$32,060, which is roughly the lowest pricing since December 2020. ETH is down 35% this week and is trading around US$1,220 (AU$1,765). The macro picture looks bleak: May’s inflation rate in the US topped 8.6% and there’s speculation the Fed may hike interest rates by a whopping 0.75%. The S&P 500 is in a bear market, having lost more than 20% this year, and as a riskier asset class crypto has been hit even harder. The effects have been multiplied by the potential for lending platform Celsius to collapse and the possibility the ETH Merge may be delayed again. Everything has lost double digits: Cardano (-27%), XRP (-23%) and Polkadot (-20%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 7 or Extreme Fear. The overall market cap is at US$932 billion (AU$1.353T). With two weeks to go, this is shaping up as either the worst, or second worst quarter in Bitcoin’s history.

Bitcoin’s longest ever losing streak ended on Sunday with the cryptocurrency finally printing its first weekly green candle in 10 weeks. There’s now hope among traders that we’ve found the bottom and JPMorgan’s suggestion of a 30% upside for Bitcoin following the recent washout is right. However, Josh Olszewicz, head of research at Valkyrie Investments, thinks overall conditions aren’t favourable. “Uncertainty in the global economy due to high inflation and the likelihood we are in a recession, paired with the prevalence of central bankers raising rates, is likely going to force all assets downward at least through the end of the summer,” he said. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also widely expected to raise interest rates today. Bitcoin finished the week at AU$41,700 (US$29.9K) while Ethereum lost 11% to AU$2,450 (US$1,750). Cardano increased 1%, XRP fell 7%, Solana (-16%) and Polkadot was down 13%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 13, or Extreme Fear, up from 10 last week.

The good news is that the bad news has stopped, but is it a dead cat bounce or a trend reversal? Bitcoin is up 8% from a week ago to trade around AU$44,000 (US$31.7K) at the time of writing. Glassnode’s latest report says Bitcoin true believers have been snapping up BTC at discount prices and swallowed up all of the 80K Bitcoin liquidated by the LUNA Foundation Guard. The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend score is at 0.9% which Glassnode says indicates “investor psychology shifts from uncertainty to value accumulation.” Ethereum finished the week up 1% at AU$2,775 (US$1,990), XRP gained 2%, Cardano was up 11% and Solana lost 6%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 16 or Extreme Fear.

As the apocryphal Chinese curse goes: ‘May you live in interesting times’. Well, markets have rarely been more interesting with a record eight weeks in the red for Bitcoin which slid another 2.9% this week to trade around AU$41,100 (US$29.2K). In traditional markets the S&P 500 dipped briefly into bear market territory on Friday with a 20% drop from its January high before a small turnaround on Monday. Ethereum fell 2.9% this week and is trading at AU$2790 (US$1984), XRP lost 5%, Cardano (-8%), Solana (-9.6%) and Polkadot (-8%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 10 or Extreme Fear.

It’s been a historic week for all the wrong reasons, with Bitcoin notching up an unprecedented seventh weekly close in the red. The spectacular collapse of Terra and UST saw around AU$400B wiped off the total market cap of crypto mid-week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum crashing to lows not seen since 2020, Tesla, El Salvador, and MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings all went into the red. After trading as low as AU$38K (US$26.5K) Bitcoin is back at AU$43K (US$30.1K) to cap the loss for the week at – 4%. Ethereum lost 12% to trade at just over AU$2,900 (US$2K). XRP lost 15%, Cardano (-9%), Solana (-16%) and Polkadot (-2%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index improved, but is still at 14 or Extreme Fear.

It looks like it’s time to fill out that McDonald’s job application with crypto falling off a cliff this week. Bitcoin tumbled around AU$12K four days ago from AU$55K down to AU$43K (the lowest prices since July 2021) alongside a major sell off in stocks, with the tech heavy Nasdaq in the US down another 4.3% on Monday and 26% year to date. Crypto’s market cap is down 35% in the same period and Bitcoin is now more than 50% off its all time high. The Future Fund LLC’s Gary Black tweeted today “BTC is nothing like gold, it’s Nasdaq on steroids“. Bitcoin has completed six red weekly candles in a row for the first time since 2014. Interest rates are rising along with the US dollar and the US CPI figures come out mid-week which will indicate how much more pain is to come. Crypto’s plunge was exacerbated by the UST stablecoin falling off its peg and deploying some of its BTC reserves. At the time of writing Bitcoin was down 19% for the week to trade at AU$44,415 (US$30.7K), Ethereum lost 19% for the week to trade around AU$3,300 (US$2.3K), XRP (-19%), Cardano (-19%), and Polkadot (-25%). The crypto fear and greed index bottomed out at 11, or Extreme Fear.

April wasn’t a great month and May isn’t looking too hot either. Traditional markets are tanking, the Federal Reserve is hiking rates in the US, and the RBA increased the cash rate by 25bps to 0.35% today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (crypto’s closest proxy on traditional markets) plunged on Friday and lost 13% all up in April, its worst month since 2008 and its worst start to a year on record. By comparison, Bitcoin isn’t actually doing that badly, remaining above its year-to-date low of around US$33K (AU$47K). Bitcoin is currently trading at US$38.6K, or AU$54,650, which is 4% down for the week. Ethereum lost 5% to trade at US$2,865 (AU$4,050), XRP was down 11%, Cardano (-13%), and Polkadot (-18%). As a small sign of hope, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 28, which is simply Fear, rather than Extreme Fear.

Bitcoin has seen four red candles in a row on the weekly chart for the first time since June 2020. Traders seem unsure of how crypto markets will react to heavy losses in Asian stocks over lockdowns spreading in China and the US Federal Reserve signalling a half point rise in interest rates is likely at its next meeting to tame inflation. A looming death cross on the three-day chart could also send prices tumbling 40% according to CoinDesk — but on two previous occasions it notes that marked the end of bear markets and the start of bulls. Despite the gloom, HODLers keep HODLing, with the percentage of Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved for more than a year crossing 64% for the first time ever. Bitcoin dipped again below US$40K (AU$55.7K) on the weekend and was as low as US$38.5K (AU$53.5K) earlier today but it finishes the week at US$40.5K (AU$56,450), which is down 1% on seven days ago. Ethereum is down 2% to trade around US$3K (AU$4.2K), XRP lost 9%, Cardano was down 5% but Dogecoin was up 10%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is stuck on Extreme Fear, at 23.

In the absence of a clear overall bullish or bearish narrative driving the Bitcoin price firmly up or down, the price has been meandering above and below the US$40K mark (AU$54.4K) for most of 2022. Bitcoin dropped below that level a few times this week, but finished up 2% to US$41K (AU$55.7K). Ethereum was up 2% to just over US$3K (AU$4,100). Promising signs in the SEC case against Ripple helped XRP to gain 9%, Cardano was flat and Polkadot gained 4%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 24, or Extreme Fear.