Market update

Crypto markets are seeing a price correction with many altcoins down by double digits this week. As usual, there are plenty of potential contributing factors, with inflation hitting a 40 year high in the US potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate its tapering plan and Chinese real estate giant Evergrande being declared in restricted default after failing to repay overseas bond holders. Bitcoin has also dipped below the 200-day moving average, which is never a good sign and finishes the week down 10% to trade around AU$65,500 (US$46,800). Ethereum lost 16% and is trading just above AU$5,300 (US$3,800). Cardano (-16%), XRP (-8%) and Dogecoin (-14%) all lost ground. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 28, or ‘Fear’.

After its big weekend plunge, Bitcoin has been trundling along mostly below AU$70K/US$50K until today when it poked its head above. It’s still down 12.6% for the week and is trading at just above AU$72,100 (US$50.9K). Ethereum has performed considerably better and is now just 2.4% on this time last week to trade around AU$6,150. Everything else was down including Cardano (-10.7%), Ripple (-16.6%) and Dogecoin (-17.5%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 16, or Extreme Fear, the lowest reading since July.

Crypto markets held a Black Friday sale when they tanked AU$280B (US$200B) late last week along with share markets on fears of a scary new variant from Omicron Persei 8. Crypto Twitter immediately flipped the switch to suicidal and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to Extreme Fear, even as an obscure ‘Omicron’ token gained 900% (before crashing of course). Markets have since recovered with Bitcoin finishing the week flat at just under AU$81,000 (US$57.8K). Ethereum’s up 5% on seven days ago to just above AU$6,200 (US$4.4K) but Cardano fell 12%, Ripple lost 7%. And it wouldn’t be a BTC price dip without news that Microstrategy had bought an additional 7,002 Bitcoin at an average price of AU$82,821 (US$59,187), bringing its total stash to 121,044 BTC. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan warns the volatility likely isn’t over just yet: “The over-exuberant recovery Bitcoin experienced once that fear subsided is of little consolation, as we can now see that the digital currency is clearly vulnerable to a stock market panic.”

After reaching new highs earlier in the month, crypto markets have pulled back across the board, with Bitcoin losing 14% on seven days ago to trade around AU$77,650 (US$56,500). Ethereum is trading around AU$5,650 (US$4,100) which is down 10.2% on seven days ago. Most other coins pulled back too: Cardano (-13%), Ripple (-13%) and Polkadot (-12.3%). Interestingly Dogecoin (-15.8%) was pushed out of the top ten by Avalanche which gained 42% this week. As you might expect sentiment took a dive from 72 last week (greed) down to 50 (neutral) this week according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

‘Moonvember‘ isn’t quite as catchy as ‘Uptober’ but Bitcoin and Ethereum have still been making new all time highs. On November 10, Bitcoin hit AU$93,450 (US$68,514) before plunging 10%. It’s currently 3.9% down for the week and is trading around AU$87,100 (US$64K). ETH’s new ATH that same day was AU$6,612 (US$4,834) and it is currently 4.3% down for the week at AU$6,238 / US$4,563. Cardano lost 4.8% during the past week, XRP lost 8% and Dogecoin (-7.2%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or ‘Greed’. Onchain analyst Willy Woo thinks high expectations are holding back a bigger price run. “Whenever everyone’s bullish, it’s very difficult for the price to run upwards because you get a whole lot of speculative long positions in the markets and that makes it very, very profitable to take the other side and short it,” he said. “The majority is very seldom right.”

After a big surge yesterday, and another one this morning, Bitcoin is officially in all-time high territory again against USD, AUD, SGD, and NZD.  The price is up 7% in 24 hours, and 9.5% on the week. Analyst Rekt Capital has just posted a chart suggesting a blistering end to the year: “One final resistance left before #BTC enters its parabolic phase of the cycle.” Ethereum cruised on through to hit a new all-time high of AU$6,503 (US$4,822) a few hours ago and is currently trading up 8% on the same time last week at AU$6,480 (US$4,800). Cardano was up 6%, XRP gained 14%, Polkadot (4%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 75 or Greed.

Uptober was a great month for investors, with Bitcoin up 39.9%, for the best result since December last year. Glassnode points out that in USD value, the total price range of the candle of $23,205 (AU$30,850) was larger than Bitcoin’s entire price range in the decade or so from genesis to December 2020. (Incidentally, October 31 marked 13 years since the release of the Bitcoin white paper). This week however the coin fell 6% and finished up around AU$81,250. Ethereum also pushed into price discovery on October 29 with a half trillion USD market cap (AU$676B) and is currently around AU$5,750. XRP was fairly flat, Polkadot gained 9%, Dogecoin was up 2.2% (but was pushed out of the top ten by meme clone Shiba Inu), Uniswap gained 2.2% and Cardano lost 12%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 74 or Greed.

Congratulations team, we have notched up a new all-time high, with Bitcoin hitting AU$89,160 (US$66,234) on October 21. The market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently at AU$3.491 trillion (US$2.62T). Ethereum made a push but faltered about $10 short of previous USD all time highs, hitting US$4,330) on October 21. Due to AUD/USD fx rate changes, the AUD price of ETH did hit a new all time high of $5,838.  As Crypto Twitter likes to say WAGMI. Bitcoin is currently trading just around AU$84,300 and is down 2% for the week. Ethereum is trading at AU$5,650 and is up 9% for the week. Cardano and XRP were fairly flat this week, Polkadot gained 4%, Dogecoin (3%), and Chainlink (21%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or Extreme Greed.

Bitcoin has blasted through the US$61K / AU$83K mark thanks to the arrival of Bitcoin futures ETFs. It’s just seen the highest ever weekly close and is not far off the all-time high price seen on April 14 when Bitcoin hit AU$84.7K. At the time of writing Bitcoin was trading just under AU$83.7K (US$62k, SG$83.7k), up 8% for the week and 28.2% for the month. The big question is whether the Bitcoin futures ETF will be a “sell the news” event? Ethereum gained 6.4% to trade just over AU$5,000, though it’s only up 9.2% for the month. Cardano was down 2% and XRP lost 5% however Polkadot gained 20%, Dogecoin (6%), Uniswap (7%), Litecoin (4%) and Chainlink lost 2.6%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 78, or Extreme Greed.

‘Uptober’ seems to be going well for Bitcoin in particular, with the price increasing 13% this week to around AU$78,000 (US$57.3K), its highest level in five months. Expectations are now high for a big fourth quarter, and with April’s ATH of AU$84.7K (US$64.9K) back in sight, “all data science models suggest that BTC will peak much higher than US$100,000 (AU$136K) in this cycle,” analyst Rekt Capital said. While alt season may be a little way off just yet according to trader Pentoshi, it is coming. Ethereum was up 4% to around AU$4,800 (US$3.5K), XRP (9.35%), Polkadot (9.1%). But Cardano fell 1.1%, Dogecoin (-3.8%), Chainlink (-5.6%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71, or Greed.

September is historically the worst month for Bitcoin and the price was hit by fears over Evergrande and the latest China crackdown … but we have now entered what Crypto Twitter optimistically calls ‘Uptober’. The global crypto market cap is back at US$2.1 trillion (AU$2.9T) – more than the US junk bond market – and around 86% of the supply is currently in profit. Bitcoin is up 12% on the same time last week to trade just under the US$50K mark, at around AU$67K. Ethereum also jumped 12.3%, Ripple (9%), Polkadot (8%), Chainlink (11%). Cardano was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54 or neutral. Despite the recent market rebranding of October, it’s also the month that saw the 1929 Stock Market Crash and Black Monday in 1987…

Despite new China ban FUD, the existing FUD about Evergrande, and the looming passage of the Infrastructure bill in the US Senate, Bitcoin has held up remarkably well (compared to where it started) and finished flat this week to trade around AU$58,150 (US$42.6K). BTC is also about 13.8% down on 30 days ago, but September is historically a poor month for returns. Ethereum was also flat, while Polkadot was down 1%, Ripple was up 1.6%, Cardano increased 3.5% and Uniswap was up 10.5%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 26, or Fear.