Market update

After briefly dipping below A$40K (US$29.3K) a week ago, Bitcoin suddenly pumped 15% yesterday and topped $54K (US$40K) in the early hours of this morning – the highest level since mid-June. It’s currently settled back to $50,100 but is still up a whopping 21.6% on seven days ago. Ethereum gained 23.4%, Cardano (12.4%), Ripple (11.5%), Dogecoin (17.8%), Polkadot (21.9%), Bitcoin Cash (16.4%), Litecoin (16%), Chainlink (24.8%), Stellar (23.3%), Aave (28%), Synthetix (14.8%), MATIC (38%).

Bitcoin has just seen its lowest weekly close in eight months, in the aftermath of Grayscale’s unlocking of 25,000 BTC in recent days. Will it hold above US$30K (A$40.9K)? Bitcoin is down 6.7% for the week and is trading just above A$42,000. Bitcoin dragged the rest of the market down: Ethereum fell 10.4%, Cardano lost 14.2%, Ripple (-10.9%), Polkadot (-22.5%), Uniswap (-19.4%), Bitcoin Cash (-13.2%), Litecoin (-14.7%), Chainlink (-16.8%), Stellar (-10.5%), Aave (-19.4%) and Synthetix (-32.3%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 24, or Extreme Fear.

Bitcoin remains 50% off its all-time high in April, but has been essentially going sideways since mid-May and refuses to drop below US$30K (A$40K). It’s currently 3.4% down on seven days ago to trade around A$44,300 (US$33,100). While Synthetix gained 13.5% on the news layer 2 scaling with Optimism would finally launch this month, most other coins were down. Ethereum lost 8.6%, Cardano (-7.3%), Ripple (-4.7%) Polkadot (-3.4%), Uniswap (-3.9%), Bitcoin Cash (-5.6%), Litecoin (-4.3%), Chainlink (-5.4%), Stellar (-6.9%) and Aave (-5%).

Bitcoin traded between approximately A$44K (US$33K) and A$48K (US$36K) this week, finishing pretty much flat on seven days ago at A$45,200 (US$34K) at the time of writing. With the London hard fork just around the corner and Eth2 deposit contract filling up, Ethereum is looking very solid and gained 7.8% to trade around A$2,970 (US$2,250). Overall, there was more green than red, with DeFi coins surging: Uniswap was up 16.4%, Aave (39.3%), Compound (62.2%) and Synthetix (60.2%). Ripple increased 3.5%, Cardano (7.9%), Bitcoin Cash (2.6%), Litecoin (2.2%). Chainlink was flat, Polkadot lost 1.7% and Stellar was down 2.2%. The Bitcoin hashrate bottomed out at 59 EH/S during the week, but the average rate was 87.9 EH/s which is about where we are right now. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 29 (fear).

It’s too early to say if things are turning around but thanks to an overnight surge there are definitely some green shoots with Bitcoin up 7.9% this week to trade around A$45,300. It’s at the same price it was a month ago and it seems to have found a floor above the US$30K level (A$39.64K). Ethereum meanwhile gained 8.6%, Ripple was up 3.8%, Litecoin (7.8%), Bitcoin Cash (7%) Chainlink (6.3%), Stellar (8.9%), EOS (6.9%), Aave (4.3%) and Synthetix (4.8%). Polkadot lost 1%. The overall crypto market cap is around A$1.85 trillion.

China’s war on Bitcoin mining and virtual currency transactions ramped up a gear this week, sending Bitcoin sharply into the red. BTC is now 22% down on seven days ago and trading just under A$42K (US$33K). Although Bitcoin is well down on its peak around A$84K (US$65K) in April, it’s still up on the A$39K (US$27K) it began 2021 at. Ethereum lost 26.8% this week, which means former crypto billionaire founder Vitalik Buterin, is down to his last $838M. However, given ETH started the year under A$1,000 (US$750), its current A$2,500 (US$1,800) price is still quite impressive. Everything else was down: Ripple (-31.5%), Polkadot (-37.8%), Bitcoin Cash (-27.3%), Litecoin (-28.9%), Chainlink (-29.5%), Stellar (-30.8%), EOS (-32.4%), Aave (-34%), Synthetix (-34.5%). MicroStrategy announced overnight it had bought another 13,005 BTC for around US$489 million.

Various moves by billionaires Elon Musk, Paul Tudor Jones and Michael Saylor helped push Bitcoin back above US$40K (A$51.85K) overnight for the first time in two weeks. At the time of writing it was up 17.8% on seven days ago and is trading just under A$52,200. Ethereum and altcoins may take a little longer to recover, with ETH down 2.4% this week, Uniswap dropped 2.4%, Chainlink (-2.4%), Stellar (-3.8%) Aave (-8.5%) and Synthetix (-9.2%). Eos was flat, however XRP was up 2.1%, Polkadot (11.7%) and  Bitcoin Cash (3.7%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is headed back up but is currently still at 28 (fear).

Bitcoin briefly topped A$50K (US$39K) this week, but it’s currently 9.5% down on a week ago, and 43% down in the past month. Presently, it’s trading in the region of A$43,850 (US$34K). Ethereum has fared a little better, just 3.2% down this week (and 33% this month). Elsewhere it was a sea of red: Cardano lost 9%, XRP (-17.2%), Polkadot (-6%), Uniswap (-13.3%), Bitcoin Cash (-14.7%, Litecoin (-12.9%), Chainlink (-22.1%), Aave (-11.1%) and Synthetix (-17.5%).

Bitcoin finished the month more than 36% down, in its worst performance since losing 37% in November 2018. The price is currently 3.9% below a week ago and it’s trading around A$48K (US$37K), which is around A$10K (US$7K) higher than it began the year. There are reports long term holders are buying the dip in preparation for a 2013 style double pump. Ethereum has seen a 9.3% pump in the past 24 hours and finishes the week 1.3% up. ETH volume has overtaken BTC volume on some days according to CoinGecko (which also counts DEX volume) and talk of the Flippening is once again doing the rounds. Polkadot was flat, XRP increased 9%, Chainlink was up 22.5%, Litecoin (2.8%) and EOS (17.8%). Bitcoin Cash fell 3.6%, Stellar (-7.4%), Aave (-2.6%) and Synthetix (-7.2%).

Congratulations, you’ve just survived “the largest capitulation event in Bitcoin’s history”. Since it peaked above A$76K (US$59K) on May 9, Bitcoin has taken the elevator down to around A$41K (US$32K) and has since recovered to around A$50,500 (US$38K). It’s still down 10.7% since last Tuesday and 22.7% for the month – although zooming out it’s almost 300% up on a year ago. Altcoins were hit harder and are recovering faster with many up 20-30% in the past day. Ethereum finishes the week 20.1% down at the time of writing, XRP (-34.1%), Bitcoin Cash (-29.7%), Litecoin (-35%), Chainlink (-29.6%), Stellar (-32.7%), Aave (-33.2%), Synthetix (-31.9%). The Bitcoin Hash Rate has fallen from a 7-day average of 180TH/s on May 14 to 145 TH/s currently. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 10, the lowest level since April 2020 — but as analyst Mati Greenspan points out it may: “Just happen to have been the greatest buying opportunity in history”.

It hasn’t been a great week, with Bitcoin currently 22.6% down on last Tuesday to trade just above A$55K (US$42.8K). It’s corrected around 30% in a month for its worst performance since Black Thursday (still, there were seven larger corrections between 2015 and 2017.) It wasn’t all bad – while ETH corrected 18.2%, it’s still up 38.4% this month and the market cap topped half a trillion US for the first time this week. XRP was up 4.3%, Polkadot was up 4.7%, AAVE increased 28.7% and Synthetix was up 20.1% apparently on rumours something big is happening this week. Bitcoin Cash lost 22%, Litecoin was down 23.6%, Chainlink -22.4%, Stellar lost 4.8%, EOS lost 4.7%. Last week The Fear and Greed Index was around 68 (greed) but it took a dive to 20 (extreme fear) yesterday, the lowest point since April 2020. It’s since recovered to 27 (fear). Glassnode attributes the dip mainly to 1.1 million noobs panic selling.

Bitcoin is down 2.2% this week to trade at just under A$71,600. But Ethereum has been hogging the spotlight again, peaking at a new all-time high a few hours ago of A$5,359. It’s since pulled back to finish the week up 16.5% at $5,089. The record price came within 24 hours of the highest day of address activity in ETH’s six-year history. “Generally, when active addresses grow, prices will follow,” notes Santiment. New retail interest appears to be flowing to classic, more established names with Bitcoin Cash up 32.3%, Litecoin up 23.5%, Chainlink (12.5%), Stellar (21%), Ethereum Classic (106%) and EOS (38%). XRP lost 9.9%, Polkadot (-1.9%), AAVE (-14.9%) and Synthetix (-12.7%). There are unconfirmed rumours that Synthetix, Chainlink and UniSwap v3 are all set to launch layer 2 scaling within weeks, which if true could help usher in a new DeFi boom.