Market update

With the possibility of a nuclear exchange (relatively) high, a financial war ramping up, and increased regulatory pressure in the US and Europe, crypto markets are again under pressure. Bitcoin is down 15% for the week to trade just under AU$52K (US$38.3K)  while Ethereum’s slide continues, losing another 17% to around AU$3,400 (US$2.5K). XRP lost 11%, Cardano (-20%) and Polkadot (-16%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved above 50 earlier in the week but is now back around 23 or Extreme Fear.

Bitcoin went on a rollercoaster ride this week, plunging more than 10% on the news that Russia had invaded Ukraine. It bottomed out below AU$48,000 (US$34K), recovered a little bit as markets digested the implications, and then suddenly jumped almost 15% in the past 24 hours to AU$59,300 (US$43K). As usual, the reasons aren’t exactly clear but there are reports Russians are buying up crypto as the country’s financial system gets hit hard by sanctions. Markets also seem to prefer certainty to uncertainty and news emerged today that eBay is looking at adding crypto payments. Bitcoin is up 12% for the week at the time of writing, with everything else up too including Ethereum (9%), XRP (6%), Cardano (6%), and Polkadot (13%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 20, or Extreme Fear. Bitcoin dominance is edging back towards 44%, the highest it’s been since November, and there are now 800K wallets with at least one whole Bitcoin, and non-zero addresses are at an all-time high above 40 million.

The year started with a US$2.21 trillion (AU$3.1T) crypto market cap but it’s declined 25% since and hit US$1.69 trillion (AU$2.35T) as of today. The threat of regulatory clampdowns and the possibility of war with Ukraine is weighing heavily on markets. Bitcoin fell below the US$37K (AU$51.5K) mark earlier today and the Fear and Greed Index is at 25 or Extreme Fear. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is at AU$51.7K for a 16% loss this week. Ethereum lost 15% to trade just below AU$3,600, XRP fell 15% and Polkadot lost 16%. Activity on the Bitcoin network has fallen back to mid-2019 levels, from 400K daily entities transacting in November down to around 275K today “indicative of tepid demand from new users,” Glassnode commented. In more positive news, El Salvador’s GDP soared by 10.3% in 2021 for the first time, showing that at the very least the Bitcoin Law didn’t tank its economy.

After an all too brief spell of fine weather last week, normal service has resumed, with Bitcoin falling 5.6% this week to trade around AU$59,700 (US$42.6K). Ethereum fell 9.2% to AU$4,100 (US$2.9K), while XRP was down 5.3%, Cardano (-14%), and Polkadot (-17.6%). The falls in crypto markets mirror falls in traditional markets which most blame on mounting fears of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine. After hitting a local high of 54, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has again fallen to 46 (Fear). In more promising news the Bitcoin hashrate has hit a new seven day average all time high of 201.3 terahashes per second (TH/s). It’s up 20% since the start of the year and peaked at 248 TH/s in the past 24 hours.

And just like that, ‘Crypto Winter 2022’ appears to have been just a couple of weeks of unseasonably cold weather. Of course, everything could still flip tomorrow, but the weather is fine and sunny this week with Bitcoin up 14.5% to trade around AU$62,000 ($US44K) and Ethereum up 13% to trade above AU$4400 (US$3.1K). Everything else was up by double figures, including Cardano (10%), XRP (29%), and Polkadot (11%). Influencer Lark Davis summed up the price action, tweeting yesterday: “Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since November, we have now broken out of that trend. Next stop? MOON.” The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 45 (Fear) – up from 26 last week – and the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is up nearly half a trillion this week to AU$2.814T (US$2T).

Let’s face it: January was not a great month for the crypto markets, with the market cap for all cryptocurrencies plunging from almost AU$3.2 trillion down to AU$2.47T today.  It’s the worst start to a year since Crypto Winter began in 2018. There were only 11 green days this month and cryptocurrencies across the board lost double digits as prospective rate rises in the US spooked markets (here in Australia the RBA is expected to end the AU$4 billion a week bond buying program and open the door to interest rate rises after inflation reached the central bank’s target for the first time since 2014). Bitcoin is down 19.5% on a month ago, and Ethereum is down 29%. The good news is that February has started with a bounce and BTC is up 2% in the past week to AU$54,385 (US$38,475) and ETH is up 7% to almost $3,800. Cardano lost 4%, Ripple was flat and Polkadot increased 4%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 20, which is still ‘Extreme Fear’ but heading in the right direction after bottoming out last week around 11.