In markets
After peaking at a new all-time high in August, Bitcoin has fallen 13% to touch its lowest level since June. It fell 0.2% this week and is currently trading around A$166,228/US$108,932. Over the past year, Bitcoin has suffered two one-third drawdowns, so further downsides are possible. Tech stocks are also suffering, with the Nasdaq pulling back 1.2%. Ethereum fell by 3.4% this week to trade around A$6,569/US$4,304, even as the Ethereum ETFs hauled in more than a billion dollars. ETH has now fully retraced the god candle it saw following Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Zooming out, the picture is rosier, however, with analyst Ted Pillows pointing out that while Bitcoin is flat in the third quarter, Ethereum is up 77%. The week’s best performer was Solana, which briefly reclaimed the US$200 (A$305) mark and finished the week up 3.22% amid a sea of red, perhaps in anticipation of ETF approvals. Looking ahead, September is typically a down month, but Uptober and November usually see some of the best returns of the year. The US M2 money supply has also just hit a new all-time high, with Bitcoin typically following it upwards after a lag. Strategy is also set to join the S&P 500 later this week. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 46, or Fear.
From the OTC desk
Precious metals becoming more precious
Gold prices reached a record high this week, trading up to US$3,508.50 per ounce for spot. Silver, correspondingly, is now at a 14-year high, breaking above the US$40 barrier to trade at US$40.76 per ounce. This aligns with growing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve as Trump moves to exert pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his threats to dismiss current governor Lisa Cook. The precious metal rally has been intensified by increased buying from central banks to diversify away from the USD, global uncertainty, and concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.
Global bond volatility
Japan’s rising bond yields are causing issues for U.S. Treasuries as fears grow that Japanese investors may start shifting away from holding U.S. Treasuries to focus on their domestic market. JGB 10-year yields have risen from 1.596% at the start of the week to trade at 1.628% now. 10-year Treasury yields now stand at 4.254% in anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, but the gap remains narrower. Additionally, increased volatility is expected in the European bond market following changes to the Dutch pension system. Dutch pensions account for a significant portion of European government debt, and under the new system, scheduled to launch on 1 January 2026, younger workers will invest more heavily in stocks and less in long-dated bonds.
OTC desk activity
- Saw profit taking in Eth and other altcoins for the week
- Seeing significant stablecoin on-ramps; big directional change
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Tuesday, 2 Sep 2025, 07:00 PM: EA Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus 2%)
- Wednesday, 03 Sep 2025, 12:00 AM: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Consensus 49)
- Wednesday, 03 Sep 2025, 11:30 AM: AU GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Consensus 0.5%)
- Thursday, 04 Sep 2025, 11:30 AM: AU Balance of Trade (Consensus A$4.92B)
- Friday, 05 Sep 2025, 12:00 AM: US ISM Services PMI (Consensus 51)
- Saturday, 06 Sep 2025, 12:30 AM: US Non Farm Payrolls (Consensus 75k)
- Monday, 08 Sep 2025, 1:00 PM: CN Balance of Trade
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Bitcoin whale buys more ETH than Sharplink
A Bitcoin whale is making a massive bet on Ethereum’s outperformance by selling thousands more Bitcoin over the past few days to buy more Ether. The US$5 billion (A$7.62B) wallet woke up from seven years of dormancy in August, and has since amassed 886,317 ETH worth around US$3.85 billion/A$5.87B at current prices. The OG now holds slightly more ETH than Joe Lubin’s Sharplink Gaming, and it has staked the majority.
Trump says Bitcoin to $1M
Eric Trump Jr told attendees at the Bitcoin 2025 Asia conference in Hong Kong that there was “no question” that Bitcoin would hit US$1 million (A$1.5M). “You’ve got nation states that are buying the hell out of Bitcoin. You’ve got Fortune 500 companies that are buying the hell out of Bitcoin. You’ve got the biggest families and the biggest companies on Earth that believe in this digital store of value. Everybody wants Bitcoin… that’s why I’ve always said that I really believe in the next several years, Bitcoin will hit $1 million.” The Trump dynasty’s World Liberty Financial WLFI token has seen just its first unlock, with wallets linked to the family now holding about US$5 billion/A$7.62B worth. The circulating supply of WLFI briefly hit a token price of 40 cents before falling 50% in value.
Ethereum will 100X
Ethereum co-founder and Sharplink Gaming chair Joe Lubin says the big problem with BitMine chair Tom Lee is that “he is not nearly bullish enough.” Lubin wrote on X that Ethereum is set to replace the many siloed tech stacks that Wall Street operates on, and the big financial giants will inevitably stake, run infrastructure and operate L2s and Defi. “ETH will likely 100x from here. Probably much more,” he said.
Ethereum’s new Interop Layer
The Ethereum Foundation has outlined its roadmap to make Ethereum feel “like one chain again” via a new interoperability layer for its L2s. The plan prioritises faster confirmations, trust minimised cross-chain transfers and better UX and privacy tools, with deliverables and target dates extending into 2026. The Ethereum Interoperability Layer will be an intent-based framework where users express a desire to do something, and a decentralised “solver” network carries it out for them in the background. L1 transactions will target confirmation in 15-30 seconds, with slot times halved, to help make interoperability more seamless. Ethereum also hit its highest number of monthly active addresses since the 2021 bull market.
VC funding second-highest on record
According to Outlier Ventures, crypto startups secured US$9.6 billion (A$14.64B) in VC funding during the second quarter of the year. That’s the second-highest quarterly figure ever recorded. While fewer projects are getting funded overall, those securing larger cheques are. There’s a trend toward funding infrastructure or rollups. Jamie Burke, CEO of Outlier Ventures, wrote: “The next era of Web3 will focus on foundational infrastructure and proven teams, not hype cycles.”
Tether brings USDT to Bitcoin via RGB protocol
Tether is pioneering the deployment of USDT on Bitcoin using the RGB protocol: a next-generation asset issuance system compatible with the Lightning Network. This integration allows USDT to be issued and transacted directly on Bitcoin, offering users faster, more scalable, and privacy-preserving transfers without relying on wrapped tokens or bridge-layer solutions. By leveraging RGB’s client‑side validation model and off-chain transaction anchoring, Tether is extending Bitcoin’s utility beyond a store of value toward a practical medium for payments and stablecoin applications.
Big-budget Satoshi film
Hollywood stars Pete Davidson and Casey Affleck will appear in a new conspiracy thriller from the director of The Bourne Identity, tentatively titled “Killing Satoshi”. Variety reports the film will explore Satoshi’s secret identity in a manner similar to The Social Network.
Ether ETFs are going gangbusters
Since launch, the total inflows into the Ethereum ETFs rose 44% in August, from US$9.5 billion (A$14.5B) at the start of the month to US$13.7 billion (A$20.9B) by the end. Despite depressed prices last week, the Ether ETFs hauled in US$1.083 billion (A$1.64B), while the Bitcoin ETFs took in US$440.8 million (A$672.3B). CoinShares, which tracks global crypto fund inflows, says August was the best month for digital asset funds on record. VanEck, Franklin, Canary/Marinade, Grayscale, 21Shares, Fidelity, Bitwise, and CoinShares all filed updated statements for the SOL ETFs with the SEC last week. XRP is also closing in on ETF approval, and Canary Capital CEO Steve McClurg predicted XRP ETFs could haul in US$5 billion (A$7.62B) in the first month.
US GDP on blockchain
The US Department of Commerce has published its Gross Domestic Product numbers on nine separate blockchains. The exercise was a proof of concept, with the Government planning to disseminate key economic data via blockchain in the future. “We are making America’s economic truth immutable and globally accessible like never before,” said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also reportedly considering controversial proposals for the reconstruction of Gaza that would involve tokenising the land, which families could sell or exchange for housing in future.
Asia crypto news
The 2026 budget for Japan’s Financial Services Agency shows its plan to create a new department called the Cryptocurrency and Innovation Division. Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra met with crypto companies Metaplanet and UTXO Management to discuss the potential establishment of a Thai strategic reserve and positioning the country as a regional hub for treasury companies. A US court has blocked Singapore-based AI company Genius Group from expanding its Bitcoin reserves due to a legal dispute with another company. Philippines Senator Bam Aquino said this week he wants to put the national budget records on blockchain. In South Korea, frustration is growing over the slow pace of stablecoin legislation. Media outlet Busan Ilbo reports that all four stablecoin draft laws submitted to the National Assembly over the past few months are stuck at the committee stage.
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