In markets
The Bitcoin bull market isn’t over, but it’s not looking as healthy as it could be, with eight of the ten indicators on the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index flashing bearish. “Momentum is clearly cooling,” CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun said. However, the Altcoin Season Index is at 78, with the metric climbing from 25 (Bitcoin season) in June. Expected interest rate cuts in the US could support crypto markets, with FundStrat’s Tom Lee telling CNBC that monetary policy combined with the usually strong fourth quarter means Bitcoin “can easily get to US$200,000 (A$299K) before the end of the year.” Bitcoin has traded up and down in an A$15K/US$10K range this week, and it finished up 3.5% from seven days ago to trade around A$172,939 (US$115,320). Ethereum finishes the week up 5.6% to trade around A$6,799 (US$4,535), Solana gained 10.5%, and Dogecoin surged 13.5%. The Bitcoin ETFs hauled in A$3.5B/US$2.32 billion while the Ethereum ETFs took in A$955M/US$637.6 million. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 53, or Neutral.
From the OTC desk
FOMC Strategic Insights: Decoding the Rate Cut Horizon
A significant FOMC meeting is scheduled for Thursday morning, which could shape market direction throughout Q4. The market is currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut, with a 4.1% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction. Beyond voting on adjustments to the federal funds rate, FOMC members will present near and long-term economic projections for GDP, unemployment, and inflation. These forecasts are critical, as they will influence the Dot Plot. This is a graphical representation of voting members’ expectations for interest rates at the end of this year, the next year, and beyond. This overview will provide markets with valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s anticipated aggressiveness in future rate cuts and its overall monetary policy stance.
Crypto ETF Surge: TradFi’s Calculated Dive into Digital Assets
The Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) and XRP ETF (XRPR), launched by REX-Osprey, are set to begin trading on September 18, 2025, marking the debut of the first U.S. spot ETFs for these coins. This development aligns with the growing prominence of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) and reflects a surge in institutional interest in the cryptocurrency asset class, bolstered by billions in inflows to spot ETFs. Traditional finance is making a calculated dive into this space and reducing barriers for global investors interested in gaining exposure. This could blend the benefits and efficiencies of decentralised finance with the security offered by regulated financial products. Nonetheless, considerations arise regarding the need for regulatory boundaries to safeguard investors from the potential listing of any of the 37 million existing cryptocurrencies, alongside concerns about capital dilution among cryptocurrency stakeholders.
OTC desk activity
- Increased interest in purchasing altcoins across multiple chains
- Mixed stablecoin flows for the week.
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Thursday, 18 Sep 2025, 04:00 AM: US Fed Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 4.25%)
- Thursday, 18 Sep 2025, 04:30 AM: US FOMC Economic Projections
- Thursday, 18 Sep 2025, 04:30 AM: US Fed Press Conference
- Friday, 19 Sep 2025, 09:00 AM: BOE Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 4.0%)
- Friday, 19 Sep 2025, 1:00 PM: JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Consensus 0.5%)
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
UK proposal to cap stablecoins
The Bank of England has proposed limiting individuals to holding less than 20,000 pounds worth (A$41K) of stablecoins, arguing that restrictions would prevent a stabilising outflow of deposits from banks. Crypto industry leaders told the Financial Times that the plans would be unworkable without a digital ID system. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association said the caps “make no sense” because there are no limits on cash holdings or bank accounts.
Democrats get serious on crypto bills
A dozen US Democrats have outlined the principles they hope to see in forthcoming crypto market structure legislation. The move follows Republicans updating their own discussion draft last week. The Democrats want regulators to issue guidance over which tokens are commodities and which are securities, and for the CFTC to have jurisdiction over non-security crypto markets. They also called on the SEC to integrate crypto into the existing securities regulatory framework, while creating “appropriate and effective” oversight for DeFi protocols and platforms.
Patriot Act meets crypto
According to The Rage, the US Treasury hopes to apply the financial surveillance powers from section 311 of the PATRIOT Act to DeFi platforms, mixers and wallets. The move would give Treasury the power to blacklist specific entities or even entire categories of transactions. Francis Pouliot, the founder and CEO of Bull Bitcoin, said it would be an attack on privacy. “The Orwellian scenario may not come to pass entirely, but it’s a signal: if we let them, they will establish that any use of Bitcoin except tracked custodial wallets is ‘suspicious’”.
Crypto surges on the stock market
The appetite for crypto in traditional markets continues to grow, with the US crypto exchange Gemini raising US$425 million (A$636M) in its initial public offering last week. While it was a success, it was outshone by stablecoin issuer Circle’s listing in June, shares of which have now doubled in price.
Solana eyes new all-time highs
Solana is climbing closer to all-time high prices again, having more than doubled following a significant dip in April and May. Milk Road points out that while Solana lost ground against Ether from April to August, the trend reversed in late August. Forward Industry, a new SOL Treasury firm backed by Galaxy, Jump Crypto and Multicoin Capital, announced it has purchased US$1.58 billion ($2.37B) worth of Solana. Meanwhile, Pantera Capital announced the launch of the Nasdaq-listed Helius, which intends to buy US$500M (A$749M)of Solana. There’s also talk of a bridge between Solana and the Base Ethereum L2.
Bitcoin to a million… or a billion
Bitcoiners are divided between those who think Bitcoin will reach US$1M (A$1.49M) fast and those who believe it will get there slowly. Jan3’s Samson Mow argues the history of fiat shows collapses come in sudden and violent bursts, which could propel Bitcoin to $1M in weeks or months. Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead believes Bitcoin could hit US$750K (A$1.12M) in the next four years and $1M at some unspecified point. And Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, recently predicted Bitcoin could reach US$1M to US$10M (A$15M) by 2030 and as much as US$1 billion (A$1.5B) by 2038.
Nepal’s Web3 revolution
Nepal has been wracked by political turmoil, with the Prime Minister stepping down, social media bans and the deaths of scores of protesters. Protesters turned to Jack Dorsey’s BitChat to communicate without the internet, and used peer-to-peer swaps and decentralised exchanges to buy stablecoins. “We can’t rely on banks,” said a 25-year-old protester in Kathmandu. “USDT is the only money that moves when everything else is blocked.” The country is now run by the military, with an interim head chosen via Discord.
El Salvador vs the IMF
Is El Salvador still buying 1 Bitcoin a day? It certainly looks like it is, but the International Monetary Fund says it’s just pretending following a deal it made to receive an IMF grant. “We can confirm that the total amount of government-owned Bitcoin has not increased and that the increase in the Bitcoin Reserve Fund corresponds to movements across government wallets,” IMF Communications Officer Meera Louis told Decrypt in an email.
Hong Kong crypto news
Chinese media outlet Caixin reports that China plans to restrict state-backed firms from participating in stablecoin and crypto businesses in Hong Kong. This would block several mainland banks and tech firms from applying for stablecoin licenses. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority released a draft policy to align the territory with the Basel Committee crypto rules. Banks can apply lower capital charges to crypto assets on permissionless blockchains if proper risk controls are in place. And the shares of Hong Kong’s QMMM surged 1,700% in a day after it announced a YS$100M (A$150M) crypto treasury strategy to amass Bitcoin, Ether and Solana.
Vietnam’s crypto pilot
Vietnam has launched a five-year pilot program for crypto trading that requires crypto transactions to be carried out in Vietnamese dong and crypto platforms to be licensed Vietnamese companies. Under the rules, “crypto assets must be issued based on underlying assets that are real assets, excluding assets that are securities or fiat currencies.”
The Moonshot Dispatch
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Until next week, happy trading!
