In markets
It looks as if the 38th time is the charm, with President Trump’s latest declaration that a peace agreement with Iran has been reached, confirmed by multiple other sources. The President said today, “the deal’s all signed,” but Polymarket odds still suggest there’s a small 5% chance things might go south.
Crypto rallied on the news, as risk assets came back into fashion and oil prices eased. Santiment said that if inflation cools down and institutional investors start feeling more comfortable, “the sharp gains following this announcement may end up looking less like a one-day relief rally and more like the opening chapter of a much larger bull cycle.”
Bitcoin finishes the week up 4.8% to trade around A$93,625 (US$66,165) while Ether gained 5.2% to hit A$2,529 (US$1,787).
This week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve is the first to be overseen by new crypto-friendly Chair Kevin Warsh. While rates are expected to remain on hold in the US and Australia, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise rates to 1% today (June 16), a move that has precipitated a crypto and stocks selloff’s in the past.
Bitcoin mining has seen a difficulty drop of around 10.09%, the second largest of the year.
Solana led the altcoins for weekly gains, rising 10.3%, while XRP gained 5.5%, and Dogecoin rose 1.6%. HYPE rose 4.5%, and Uniswap gained 8.3% after Standard Chartered set a A$141/US$100 target for the coin, which is currently trading at A$3.90 (US$2.70). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 20, which is still in ‘Extreme Fear’ territory.
From the OTC desk
Peak inflation
Headline CPI came in at 4.2%, while alarming, is actually more encouraging than it seems. Looking at the details, the elevated CPI was entirely due to energy prices, but Core-CPI, which excludes energy and food on a month over month basis, is only 0.2%. This is essentially near the Fed’s target after annualising. Coupled with oil trading below US$90 and an Iran-US deal (albeit a dicey one), inflation appears to be losing its stranglehold over the markets and giving risk assets further buoyancy. Ultimately, with the Middle Eastern conflict still being the major factor on the markets, paired with the upcoming mid-term elections, Iran may very well end up with the better end of the stick.
Volatility to pick up
Bitcoin’s US$68,000–US$70,000 range is worth watching closely. It’s a major area of options activity, meaning market makers may need to adjust their positions as prices move, potentially amplifying volatility. What this means in practice: Dealers who have sold a lot of options at these strike prices may be obligated to buy BTC immediately to hedge and rebalance their risk, which can add further upward momentum. The same dynamic can work in reverse if prices fall. As a result, volatility could increase in this area, and current market conditions appear increasingly supportive of further gains. Another key event is Fed Governor Warsh’s address on 18 June, 2:30 AM (SGT), with markets expected to be closely parsing his tone for any dovish signals.
OTC desk activity
- Seeing light dip buying on BTC & ETH
- Heavy onramp flows for stablecoins, with Tether trading at a discount throughout the week
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEST)
In headlines
The bottom is in!
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, believes that Bitcoin has already hit this cycle’s bottom with a 53% drawdown from the all-time high. “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote late last week as the price began to recover following the crash. “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle.” He said three signals would confirm his call: Bitcoin ETFs returning to positive inflows on Friday (which happened), Strategy buying more on Monday (Saylor bought another 1,587 BTC), and oil prices declining as the Iran situation eased (and they have done so). His US$100K (A$141K) price target for the end of the year remains in play. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also believes the US$60K (A$85K) level was the bottom for the current cycle.
The bottom is not in!
Galaxy research analyst Alex Thorn expressed the more conventional view when he argued the price has further to fall based on the patterns from historical four-year cycles. Thorn put out a report, with a variety of scenarios examining cases from a shallow bottom in the low US$50Ks (A$70Ks) to a “retired” bottom around US$20K (A$28K). Thorn said two patterns jump out from his study of past cycles: each peak-to-trough fall has shrunk (85%, 84%, 77%), and “bottoms have historically arrived 12-13 months after the top.” We’re only 8 months into the current drawdown. Analyst Ted Pillows, meanwhile, says Bitcoin has been forming lower highs and lower lows, and says if the trend continues, Bitcoin could rise as high as US$74K (A$15K) before “nuking” to as low as US$50K (A$71K) in the third quarter.
Ripple to hit $1B in revenue this year
Ripple has made a lot of money over the years by selling its XRP holdings. But now the company is approaching a much more impressive milestone and expects to top US$1 billion (A$1.41B) in annual revenue from its business operations and services by the end of the year. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the company has been developing new revenue streams in payments, stablecoins and enterprise solutions. Meanwhile, figures from rwa.xyz show that the XRP ledger has seen US$1.9 billion (A$2.7B) in net real-world asset (RWA) inflows over the last 90 days, ahead of Ethereum on US$1.6 billion (A$2.3B).
Ethereum can quantum-proof accounts for 7c
Ethereum can’t catch a break with its price, but continues to kick goals with its technology. The Ethereum Foundation’s Kohaku project has just unveiled a way to make ETH accounts quantum-proof for just seven cents each! Project lead Nicolas Consigny released the SPHINCS- paper that shows how to protect accounts using the SPHINCS+ post-quantum signature standard, without requiring a hard fork. Consigny describes SPHINCS- as a bridge toward a future scheme called leanSPHINCS, which will more efficiently process the very large PQ signatures using aggregation.
Bitcoin ETFs near $2T in volume
The Bitcoin ETFs are on the verge of topping US$2 trillion (A$2.8T) in cumulative trading volume. Sadly, most of that volume has been outflows recently, with the ETFs losing more than US$2 billion (A$2.8T) so far in June. However, there was a small green shoot on Friday with an inflow of US$85.9 million (A$121M), the largest in four weeks. BlackRock is also launching its Bitcoin Income ETF this week, aiming to deliver a 15-25% annual yield while capturing 70% of Bitcoin’s price upside.
Clarity Act hits the rocks
The White House’s goal of getting the Clarity Act passed by its July 4 deadline is looking doubtful. White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt maintains the deadline is still possible, and more than 200 crypto firms cosigned a letter recently urging Senate leaders to pass the bill by Independence Day. But Crypto In America’s Eleanor Terrett says it would require “finding an ethics solution both Republicans and Democrats can live with, addressing issues in the Ag text, merging the bills, securing 60 votes, and passing it through both the Senate and House” in under two weeks. “Logistically impossible,” she said. But Democrat Senator Ruben Gallego told Punchbowl News that there was still “plenty of time” to get the bill done. Polymarket is currently pricing 51% odds that Clarity will be signed into law this year.
Asia Crypto news
Retail investors in Singapore can now buy tokenised physical gold for the first time via DBS Group. The new tokens, each backed by a physical gram of gold, will be available through its digibank app later this year. Japan’s new crypto reform bill passed the Committee on Financial Affairs on June 10 and will now move on to the final vote. The laws would bring crypto in line with other financial products, impose strict rules on licensing and insider trading, and cut the top tax on crypto gains to 20%.
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